ag
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« on: March 13, 2016, 11:30:06 PM » |
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« edited: March 13, 2016, 11:43:16 PM by ag »
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One does not need to be an expansionist from the start to wind up in trouble. Trump presidency would mean severe disruption in cross-border cooperation on many issues. I could very well imagine a sequence, sort of, like this.
1. Trump becomes president.
2. Insists on renegotiation of trade/migration/law-enforcement agreements, etc.
3. Negotiations break down. Trump withdraw unilaterally from some of the agreements.
4. Mexico forces closing of a number of offices at the embassy (e.g., DEA), and generally suspends cooperation on law-enforcement.
5. US agents, operating within Mexico on some sort of covert mission (which previously would not have even been covert) get into trouble with local law enforcement. There is either an arrest or shooting, possible deaths (either during the arrest, or in custody - do not underestimate ability of Mexican law-enforcement of screwing up).
6. Trump insists on punishment for those Mexicans involved. Mexico refuses.
7. Trump sends in more agents to get out those detained/punish those responsible on the Mexican side.
8. There is an open clash inside Mexico. Though Americans, of course, are much better trained, it is still Mexico and Mexicans have numbers. More Americans get detained/killed.
9. Trump sends in armed troops to deal with the consequences.
10. Mexican forces initially resist, later, having suffered heavy casualties, fall back further South, leaving effective vacuum of authority in the immediate vicinity.
11. The vacuum gets filled in by the narcos/some sort of guerilla-type paramilitaries
12. Clashes between the US force and the paras lead to Trump sending in more troops to control the area (in the absence of Mexican regular forces, leaving the area uncontrolled could lead to vulnerability of the adjacent sector of the border).
13. Mexico goes into the UN. Massive condemnation in the GA, US vetos the SC resolution, otherwise supported by everybody else, including the UK.
14. A series of guerilla attacks on US units inside Mexico. Guerillas enjoy support of the local population, so US goes on regular patrols of the occupied territory. Casualties among the civilian population result.
15. Guerillas normally escape into the Mexican-controlled territory. Mexican authorities ignore the US demands to prevent further attacks, leading to an expansion of the US-controlled zone (with intention of creating a new buffer between it and the Mexican-controlled safe heavens from which guerillas operate).
16. Guerillas cross the border wall in other sections of the border, conducting what US classifies as terrorist attacks on the US territory and fleeing back to Mexico at the sight of the US forces, which pursue the attackers into Mexican territory. Further clashes with Mexican troops, which withdraw (suffering heavy casualties) further into the country. New guerilla units emerge in the abandoned sectors.
17. A Mexican suicide bomber explodes in a major US city, resulting in significant casualties and damage. It turns out that the attacker crossed one of the still intact sectors of the border. Mexican government declares that, though, of course, it is not encouraging terrorism, it is the US policy that has brought the expected, unfortunate, consequences. Refuses to cooperate in sealing the border.
18. Trump, declaring Mexico incapable and/or unwilling to cooperate against existential threat to the US moves to create the buffer zone inside Mexican territory all along the border.
19. Mexican regular units withdraw (suffering casualties in the process). Guerillas operate all along the US-controlled buffer zone, with training/recuperation camps located in urban areas on the Mexican side.
20. US bombs the camps. Severe damage to urban areas.
Should I continue?
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