Bolivian constitutional referendum, February 21, 2016

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The oficial results webpage is down, but the unofficial final preliminary count gives it 52.3% No, 47.7% Yes. Yes wins in La Paz, Cochabamba and Oruro (this last one barely).

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35 precincts will be revoting on March 6. However, these are in Santa Cruz - not likely to be of much help to the Yes side, unless they get blatantly stolen.

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On the results that are actually on the oficial webpage (it woke up), Yes is, actually, loosing everywhere, and losing badly - but, of course, these are very early

So far, the oficial results are (with 2,756 of 29,224 precincts reporting)

YES 33.73%
NO 66.27%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (240 of 1644 reporting)
YES 23.38%
NO 76.62%

La Paz (1164 of 8116 reporting)
YES 41.89%
NO 58.11%

Cochabamba (277 of 5359 reporting)
YES 26.90%
NO 73.10%

Oruro (250 of 1487 reporting)
YES 42.42%
NO 57.58%

Potosi (243 of 2131 reporting)
YES 13.97%
NO 86.03%

Tarija - no results so far

Santa Cruz (312 of 7432 reporting)
YES 22.64%
NO 77.36%

Beni - no results so far

Pando (172 of 326 reporting)
YES 40.46%
NO 59.54%

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I am surprised it is as close as what the various exit polls says it is.  Given that natural prices has fallen a lot recently plus that business about Evo's illegitimate child I would think No would win by mile.  I guess if these projections are true then Evo still retains significant support. 

The prices has fallen, but Bolivia is not doing anywhere as bad as Venezuela. The government has been maintaining sensible "macroeconomic" stance, so, for the moment, it is not doing too badly. That is why, probably, they wanted a referendum now. It is not the price crash - it is more the general sense of being tired of the regime.

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Actually, the oficial count is increasingly lopsided in favor of NO. Still very early, but at huge variance with the early count previously reported. Probably, urban areas reporting first.

So far, the oficial results are (with 2,969 of 29,224 precincts reporting)

YES 32.8%
NO 67.2%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (270 of 1644 reporting)
YES 23.54%
NO 76.46%

La Paz (1233 of 8116 reporting)
YES 41.47%
NO 58.53%

Cochabamba (277 of 5359 reporting)
YES 26.90%
NO 73.10%

Oruro (260 of 1487 reporting)
YES 42.6%
NO 57.4%

Potosi (260 of 2131 reporting)
YES 14.04%
NO 85.97%

Tarija - no results so far

Santa Cruz (522 of 7432 reporting)
YES 20.93%
NO 79.07%

Beni - no results so far

Pando (172 of 326 reporting)
YES 40.46%
NO 59.54%

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Pando at No winning 59.5 to 40.5 should be ominous to Evo.    That should be a Evo stronghold.  It seems that No will win by a landslide.  Evo would need Beni to perform well for Yes and hope that Santa Cruz numbers turns around to avoid a total rout.  

I think in the end it will be not as lopsided. Rural areas must be taking longer. The early results were not only exit polls, but also rapid counts (probably, extensive samples of actual counts). We only have 10% reporting for the moment.

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A bit more counted

So far, the oficial results are (with 3,394 of 29,224 precincts reporting)

YES 32.53%
NO 67.47%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (310 of 1644 reporting)
YES 24.1%
NO 75.89%

La Paz (1233 of 8116 reporting)
YES 41.47%
NO 58.53%

Cochabamba (302 of 5359 reporting)
YES 27.74%
NO 72.26%

Oruro (300 of 1487 reporting)
YES 43.65%
NO 56.35%

Potosi (326 of 2131 reporting)
YES 14.13%
NO 85.87%

Tarija - no results so far

Santa Cruz (585 of 7432 reporting)
YES 20.58%
NO 79.42%

Beni (30 of 1139 reporting)
YES 37.99%
NO 62.01%

Pando (172 of 326 reporting)
YES 40.46%
NO 59.54%

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Feb. 22 (AFP) -- Bolivia VP says vote on Morales re-election in a 'dead heat,' too soon to call

Well, what else would he be saying?

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It is interesting that so far Santa Cruz is a lot worse for Yes than La Paz where one would expect the opposite.  I guess this will change as more results comes in.

Why? Santa Cruz is THE opposition stronghold. La Paz is anything but.

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And a bit more

So far, the oficial results are (with 3,610 of 29,224 precincts reporting)

YES 32.46%
NO 67.54%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (330 of 1644 reporting)
YES 24.53%
NO 75.47%

La Paz (1416 of 8116 reporting)
YES 42.09%
NO 57.93%

Cochabamba (354 of 5359 reporting)
YES 28.64%
NO 71.36%

Oruro (322 of 1487 reporting)
YES 43.04%
NO 56.96%

Potosi (432 of 2131 reporting)
YES 14.02%
NO 85.98%

Tarija - no results so far

Santa Cruz (585 of 7432 reporting)
YES 20.58%
NO 79.42%

Beni (47 of 1139 reporting)
YES 38.79%
NO 61.21%

Pando (172 of 326 reporting)
YES 40.46%
NO 59.54%

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Slowly, Slowly

So far, the oficial results are (with 3,872 of 29,224 precincts reporting)

YES 32.64%
NO 67.36%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (350 of 1644 reporting)
YES 24.95%
NO 75.05%

La Paz (1461 of 8116 reporting)
YES 42.53%
NO 57.47%

Cochabamba (354 of 5359 reporting)
YES 29.17%
NO 70.83%

Oruro (350 of 1487 reporting)
YES 42.8%
NO 57.2%

Potosi (472 of 2131 reporting)
YES 13.9%
NO 86.1%

Tarija - no results so far

Santa Cruz (585 of 7432 reporting)
YES 20.58%
NO 79.42%

Beni (70 of 1139 reporting)
YES 36.69%
NO 63.11%

Pando (172 of 326 reporting)
YES 40.46%
NO 59.54%

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More reporting from Santa Cruz

So far, the oficial results are (with 4,124 of 29,224 precincts reporting)

YES 32.2%
NO 67.8%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (370 of 1644 reporting)
YES 25.56%
NO 74.44%

La Paz (1477 of 8116 reporting)
YES 42.62%
NO 57.38%

Cochabamba (452 of 5359 reporting)
YES 30.1%
NO 69.9%

Oruro (394 of 1487 reporting)
YES 42.99%
NO 57.01%

Potosi (552 of 2131 reporting)
YES 13.84%
NO 86.16%

Tarija - no results so far

Santa Cruz (657 of 7432 reporting)
YES 20.34%
NO 79.66%

Beni (90 of 1139 reporting)
YES 35.37%
NO 64.63%

Pando (172 of 326 reporting)
YES 40.46%
NO 59.54%

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The oficial site has gone down with 4530 precincts and 32.9% YES. Hopefully, this is just a minor hiccup.

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Back up

So far, the oficial results are (with 4,717 of 29,224 precincts reporting)

YES 32.87%
NO 67.13%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (420 of 1644 reporting)
YES 25.61%
NO 74.39%

La Paz (1582of 8116 reporting)
YES 42.9%
NO 57.1%

Cochabamba (539 of 5359 reporting)
YES 32.07%
NO 67.93%

Oruro (530 of 1487 reporting)
YES 44.95%
NO 55.05%

Potosi (560 of 2131 reporting)
YES 13.9%
NO 86.1%

Tarija (73 of 1590)
YES 30.27
NO 69.73

Santa Cruz (738 of 7432 reporting)
YES 20.05%
NO 79.95%

Beni (125 of 1139 reporting)
YES 34.33%
NO 65.67%

Pando (172 of 326 reporting)
YES 40.46%
NO 59.54%

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Still barely about a quarter reporting. But will it be as close as predicted? La Paz must be asleep for the night, BTW

With 7,408 of 29,224 precincts reporting


YES 35.78%
NO 64.22%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (807 of 1644 reporting)
YES 28.94%
NO 71.06%

La Paz (1588 of 8116 reporting)
YES 42.96%
NO 57.04%

Cochabamba (1193 of 5359 reporting)
YES 42.51%
NO 57.49%

Oruro (570 of 1487 reporting)
YES 44.91%
NO 55.09%

Potosi (613 of 2131 reporting)
YES 16.01%
NO 83.99%

Tarija (152 of 1590 reporting)
YES 28.66
NO 71.34

Santa Cruz (1966 of 7432 reporting)
YES 32.26%
NO 67.74%

Beni (347of 1139 reporting)
YES 34.77%
NO 65.23%

Pando (172 of 326 reporting)
YES 40.46%
NO 59.54%

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Just as I wrote the previous message, the thing started tightening. Mostly Cochabamba is reporting, and it is reporting more and more YES.

With 7,817 of 29,224 precincts reporting

YES 36.66%
NO 63.34%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (845 of 1644 reporting)
YES 29.1%
NO 70.9%

La Paz (1588 of 8116 reporting)
YES 42.96%
NO 57.04%

Cochabamba (1564 of 5359 reporting)
YES 45.42%
NO 54.58%

Oruro (570 of 1487 reporting)
YES 44.91%
NO 55.09%

Potosi (613 of 2131 reporting)
YES 16.01%
NO 83.99%

Tarija (152 of 1590 reporting)
YES 28.66
NO 71.34

Santa Cruz (1966 of 7432 reporting)
YES 32.26%
NO 67.74%

Beni (347 of 1139 reporting)
YES 34.77%
NO 65.23%

Pando (172 of 326 reporting)
YES 40.46%
NO 59.54%

Off to bed.

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Just hit 1 mln NO votes on the official count (with YES still substantially below 600,000).

With 8,534 of 29,224 precincts reporting

YES 36.72%
NO 63.28%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (845 of 1644 reporting)
YES 29.1%
NO 70.9%

La Paz (1815 of 8116 reporting)
YES 43.23%
NO 56.77%

Cochabamba (1702 of 5359 reporting)
YES 45.52%
NO 54.48%

Oruro (570 of 1487 reporting)
YES 44.91%
NO 55.09%

Potosi (613 of 2131 reporting)
YES 16.01%
NO 83.99%

Tarija (478 of 1590 reporting)
YES 28.17
NO 71.83

Santa Cruz (1966 of 7432 reporting)
YES 32.26%
NO 67.74%

Beni (347 of 1139 reporting)
YES 34.77%
NO 65.23%

Pando (172 of 326 reporting)
YES 40.46%
NO 59.54%

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YES vote share is creeping up, but the gap in the number of votes is still growing.

With 8,838 of 29,224 precincts reporting

YES 36.99%
NO 63.01%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (845 of 1644 reporting)
YES 29.1%
NO 70.9%

La Paz (2056 of 8116 reporting)
YES 43.2%
NO 56.8%

Cochabamba (1702 of 5359 reporting)
YES 45.52%
NO 54.48%

Oruro (610 of 1487 reporting)
YES 44.59%
NO 55.41%

Potosi (678 of 2131 reporting)
YES 19.19%
NO 80.81%

Tarija (478 of 1590 reporting)
YES 28.17
NO 71.83

Santa Cruz (1973 of 7432 reporting)
YES 32.19%
NO 67.81%

Beni (347 of 1139 reporting)
YES 34.77%
NO 65.23%

Pando (172 of 326 reporting)
YES 40.46%
NO 59.54%

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Counting accelerates.

With 9,354 of 29,224 precincts reporting

YES 37.37%
NO 62.63%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (845 of 1644 reporting)
YES 29.1%
NO 70.9%

La Paz (2096 of 8116 reporting)
YES 43.19%
NO 56.81%

Cochabamba (1702 of 5359 reporting)
YES 45.52%
NO 54.48%

Oruro (691 of 1487 reporting)
YES 44.51%
NO 55.49%

Potosi (840 of 2131 reporting)
YES 24.58%
NO 75.42%

Tarija (478 of 1590 reporting)
YES 28.17
NO 71.83

Santa Cruz (2121 of 7432 reporting)
YES 32.63%
NO 67.37%

Beni (347 of 1139 reporting)
YES 34.77%
NO 65.23%

Pando (182 of 326 reporting)
YES 40.85%
NO 59.15%

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First results from abroad: 70 of 1143 precincts

YES 26.76%
NO 73.24%

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Ignoring the foreign vote, on the domestic count the percentages get closer, but the absolute margin has crossed 450,000 votes.

With 10,165 of (domestic) 29,224 precincts reporting

YES 38.02%
NO 61.98%

By department this breaks down

Chuquisaca (845 of 1644 reporting)
YES 29.1%
NO 70.9%

La Paz (2505 of 8116 reporting)
YES 43.37%
NO 56.63%

Cochabamba (1727 of 5359 reporting)
YES 45.58%
NO 54.42%

Oruro (790 of 1487 reporting)
YES 44.59%
NO 55.41%

Potosi (1045 of 2131 reporting)
YES 29.98%
NO 70.02%

Tarija (478 of 1590 reporting)
YES 28.17
NO 71.83

Santa Cruz (2197 of 7432 reporting)
YES 32.58%
NO 67.42%

Beni (347 of 1139 reporting)
YES 34.77%
NO 65.23%

Pando (234 of 326 reporting)
YES 42.97%
NO 57.03%

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Once again it is off. It seems they are changing the reporting format for some reason. Hopefully, just a minor hiccup.

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Once again it is off. It seems they are changing the reporting format for some reason. Hopefully, just a minor hiccup.

Is Manuel Bartlett in charge of the election results system/website ?

He must be an external consultant His computer expertise is unmatched worldwide

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Sharp improvement for YES: even in the margin. Though, of course, that was expected.

With 11910 of (domestic) 29,224 precincts reporting

YES 41.04%
NO 58.96%

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When I try http://resultados2016.oep.org.bo/ it always seem to be down.  Is there another site I should be using?  This count speed is absurd.  Only place worst than this is my home county of Westchester.

No, that is the site. It wakes up intermittently - so if you presse the button all the time, it works. I guess, too many people doing the same.