Turkey General election - November 1st 2015

[ag]

Well he might... but I wouldn't if I were in his shoes. Instead I would brief that things were worryingly close: rally to the polls to defeat the old guard people!

Is it obvious that Davutoglu wants a strong victory? A result like the last one, which, finally, installs him as a coalition PM, makes him the Turkish leader. An outright victory keeps him Erdogan's second fiddle.

[ag]

But what if he intends to poison his tea?

Even then

I doubt Davutoglu would be the first choice of Erdoganista AK rank-and-file.

[ag]

It is just interesting that Erdogan can go on this unprovoked anti-PKK offensive with anti-Kurdish undertones and gets still gain Kurdish votes.  I was certain that AKP was writing off the Kurdish vote. 

It may be a change in the composition of the voter turnout. E.g., where do the soldiers vote?

[ag]

It is just interesting that Erdogan can go on this unprovoked anti-PKK offensive with anti-Kurdish undertones and gets still gain Kurdish votes.  I was certain that AKP was writing off the Kurdish vote. 

It may be a change in the composition of the voter turnout. E.g., where do the soldiers vote?

Possible but unlikely.  In terms of raw votes HDP went down from June in Kurdish areas.  The only party that went up in term of raw votes in Kurdish areas is AKP with turnout slightly higher than June.  So the only place where June 2015 HDP voters went must have been AKP.  They theory that this bloc of HDP voters opposed CHP even more than AKP is a possibility.  It is also possible there is a bloc of HDP voters in Kurdish areas that are anti-PKK and was convinced that this latest conflict was the fault of PKK and as a result rallied to AKP.

Or, it is also possible, that in some areas voter access to the polls was disrupted/ voters were intimidated. That is something a military/security campaign can do.

[ag]

Or, it is also possible, that in some areas voter access to the polls was disrupted/ voters were intimidated. That is something a military/security campaign can do.

But turnout was up, not down, including in Kurdish areas.

And here it would be interesting to see the soldiers. Or, for that matter, intimidation may also express itself in increased turnout. I would expect, for instance, increased turnout by government employees.

It would be interesting to see a more detailed breakdown of votes: by precinct, by locality, etc. It would help to answer some questions.

[ag]

I also feel that editorials like

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/02/opinion/turkeys-erdogan-should-listen-to-the-voters.html?_r=0

backfired and had the affect of rallying MHP and Felicity Party toward AKP.  For sure AKP made a big deal of foreign bias against AKP in the closings days of the election.  It seems that it worked for the AKP.

Yeah, Turkish voters certainly read NYTimes

Actually, I know quite a few that do. Of course, nearly all of them vote HDP