UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Election Day & Results Thread)

[ag]

Seems to have been an error. Con hold Newark.

In fact, LD loose their deposit in Newark.

[ag]

-21 for CON/LD
+20 for LAB/SNP

That gaps just keeps widening... Still waiting for the good news for the right.

What the hell is that? UK politics don't work in blocks like that.

Obviously, but A) I was referencing a few pages back where those totals were reported as half that; B) As a very, very sad Lib Dem supporter, I would at least be hoping the non-Scottish seats would be heading to the Tories which is not happening; and C) Despite the shock at the success of the Conservatives tonight (relative to polled expectations), the current coalition is still getting killed rather than holding steady even if they manage to stay in power. Hardly a ringing endorsement.

Why on Earth are you a Lib Dem supporter?

So am I, BTW.

[ag]

Who's left who could challenge Clegg though?

There is no need to challenge. He will not even try to stay, most likely.

[ag]

LD hold Bristol West. At least, 7.

[ag]

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the Parliamentary Party end up defecting as the LD organisation could suffer atrophy in certain areas in the next few months.

Carmichael - the Viking Islands - to some kind of Scottish Unionists.
Clegg himself to the Tories
Don't know enough about John Pugh or Southport to make an intelligent suggestion
Farron might remain in the LDs as the local organisation is v strong in the Lakes.
Williams - Ceredigion - another absolute stalwart area, but Plaid Cymru or Labour is not beyond the realm
Tom Brake - Carshalton - given the area, Conservative is the natural home, but don't know enough about his views to see if that would be palatable.

They survived worse. Why would they disappear now?

[ag]

LD hold Bristol West. At least, 7.

Seems like another Sky error. Lab gain.

[ag]

I wouldn't be surprised if some of the Parliamentary Party end up defecting as the LD organisation could suffer atrophy in certain areas in the next few months.

Carmichael - the Viking Islands - to some kind of Scottish Unionists.
Clegg himself to the Tories
Don't know enough about John Pugh or Southport to make an intelligent suggestion
Farron might remain in the LDs as the local organisation is v strong in the Lakes.
Williams - Ceredigion - another absolute stalwart area, but Plaid Cymru or Labour is not beyond the realm
Tom Brake - Carshalton - given the area, Conservative is the natural home, but don't know enough about his views to see if that would be palatable.

They survived worse. Why would they disappear now?

The MPs who soldiered on in the 50s-70s knew exactly what they were getting into when they became MP -  a small rump presence, at least some of whom were supported by local deals with either Conservative or Labour parties. The present day MPs have all been MPs in a period when the LDs have been the third party of the UK, and are suddenly reduced to fifth party status with all the damnation that entails.

But they have the traditions to maintain Except for the last 5 years they have always been the hopeless also runs: the difference between minor third and fifth is not that big.  They still have a base of 2 mln. votes: and that is the hardcore that can be built on. A lot better than the greens. And, unlike UKIP, they are nicely concentrated in places.

We shall see. Hopefully, they survive. Or they will have to be invented anew

[ag]

Hopefully, the Norfolk North hold is not Sky misreport.

[ag]

Remember that recounts don't always (or even usually) mean a close result.  Of course, with Balls's seat it should be very close, but usually recount requests come from smaller candidates trying to save their deposits. 

speaking of deposits, at this point in the night the Liberal Democrats have lost £141,500

They might be able to cover that when they liquidate.

Well, that would leave Britain without a single party worth rooting for Hopefully, the 2 mln. voters could pay, what is it, 7 pence each, to invest in their country's future.

[ag]

LD hold Leeds Northwest. So, there are 8. At least, (tied for) the fourth party (with DUP)

[ag]

I was looking forward to seeing the Lib Dems get fewer seats than a Northern Irish party. Shame.

(To ag and SMilo: I don't actually hate the Lib Dems, I just don't have enough of an attachment to them not to find this amusing.)

At least UKIP, for the moment, has fewer seats than the fourth largest Northern Irish Party And I do hate UKIP

[ag]

I think I mentioned this before.  But this will the the first time an incumbent ruling party managed to increase BOTH seat and vote share after a full term since the 1950s.  Harold Wilson manged this twice in 1964/1966 and the 2 1974 elections but I do not count either one, especially the 2 1974 elections since anti-incumbency did not have enough time to sink in either case, especially in 1974.  CON in 2010 to 2015 went the entire 5 years and still managed to increase its vote share and seat share.

Well technically the incumbent was the Con+LD coalition, and as a group they did lose seats (and probbaly vote share but haven't checked)

LD lost over 15 percentage points, while Conservatives gained less than one.

[ag]

Second places are basically entirely irrelevant.

Not to fun-loving psephologists ;-)

In Wales, I believe, the second places went

15 Con
10 Lab
6 PC
6 UKIP
3 LD