Feb 7th Delhi Assembly elections

[ag]

An AAP victory would be a huge setback for Modi. BJP seem to be pulling all stops - much of the cabinet is campaigning. One problem they have is, Bedi choice is quite some pandering. And, it left a lot of bad taste among the loyal BJP folk, who believe they have not been appreciated for that loyalty.

Will be fun to see.

[ag]

In fact, 120 BJP MPs and all BJP CMs will be campaigning in Delhi to ensure a victory for BJP.  By over-investing resources like this Modi will now almost have to win and by a significant margin.  If they do not then the Modi-Amit Shah aura of invincibility will be broken.  To some extent now by taking Kejriwal so seriously, the dynamics of the campaign has changed to Kejriwal's benefit where a low key campaign would have had the BJP base turnout should have given it a solid chance of winning.  BJP has to win now even as their changes of winning is going down.

Yeah, that seems to be panic mode for Modi. Turning this into a referendum on the BJP government so early in its term... Why?

[ag]

Yeah, that seems to be panic mode for Modi. Turning this into a referendum on the BJP government so early in its term... Why?

I think it is more about putting some distance between Modi and this election.  Now that the AAP seem to have some momentum, Amit Shah is coming in to take direct charge of the election and bringing in all these MPs and CMs to campaign.  So if anything what the BJP is trying to do is to make it NOT a referendum on the Modi regime now that victory is not assured.  If the BJP does not do well I am not sure this will work but we will see.

BJP is Modi today. All those MPs and CMs are clear surrogates. It would do damage to lose here, once all stops have been pulled. And all stops have been pulled. Of course, they might still win - but even then, if AAP comes close, it will have a huge platform. They could argue that they are the proper urban secular alternative to BJP, and, if they play it well, this would be a remarkable recovery after the Lok Sabha disaster.

[ag]

Modi seems to be desperate. He IS personally and publically involved in the campaign. If they loose, it will be at his feet, not at any aid´s.

[ag]

Right now INC most needs BJP to get a bloody nose. AAP, for the moment, is only displacing them in in Delhi. In many more places their rival is BJP. They need to stop Modi roll. If it is done by AAP - so be  it.

Furthermore, if BJP wins because of vote-splitting, a good many people will be pissed with the INC - exactly the sort of people INC needs to win. I have said this last year, an I am saying this now: INC needs to smother AAP in love.

[ag]

Pity ECI does not count on the same day. But will there be exit polls?

[ag]

If this holds, this is a pretty bloody nose for Modi. Good!

[ag]

NDTV projects

AAP 46-50
BJP  13-17
INC  4-8
OTH  1

That is a big win

[ag]

Kiran Bedi, CM candidate of BJP seems to be behind in Krishna Nagar.  This is a BJP stronghold so I am sure this will reverse itself soon.

Well, she can always go back and tow Kejriwal's car

[ag]

AAP   39   +16
BJP    11   -12 
INC     3     -3
BSP    0     
JD(U)  0     -1

Looking like the earlier trends were wrong.  This is turning into AAP landslide.

yeah, there will be a party in the office tomorrow

[ag]

Indian markets fell yesterday based on exit polls for Delhi on the premise that Modi will lose economic reform momentum if he loses political capital in this election.  Looks like this is confirmed. 

Good.

And I am all for reform.

[ag]

And to think that BJP had a 20%+ lead in opinion polls back in December when the election campaign started.  If they went for elections after LS elections last year they would have won with 40-45 seats for sure if not greater.

Look up Krishna Nagar again.

[ag]

AAP   52   +24
BJP    12   -18
INC     2     -5
BSP    0     
JD(U)  0     -1

This is a wipeout if it holds.  Ridiculously good.

[ag]

Looks like I was wrong about INC.  I figured that INC voters would tactically vote for AAP in seats where BJP is competitive and perhaps BJP voters might vote INC in these districts to help beat back AAP.  Instead it seems the entire INC vote base has gone over to AAP. 

BJP has a problem: there are too many people whom they scare, and even more are scared of Modi. They can win over divided opposition, but if people figure out who has no chance, they vote appropriately.

[ag]

Bedi is getting further behind.

[ag]

The most incredible thing, AAP seems to be getting over 50% of the vote!

[ag]

As of right now AAP has 53% of the vote. 

We think alike

[ag]

Interestingly, most of the seats where BJP leads seem to have been taken by AAP last time.

[ag]

Kejriwal takes over 3/4 of the vote in his district, it seems.

[ag]

BJP cannot win, unless the secular forces are divided: this is the lesson.

[ag]

Kiran Bedi is now ahead by around 1%.  The trend is in her favor.  She should win.  Still, in 2013 the BJP won this district with 58.6% of the vote.  And to barely win as the CM candidate is an embarrassment as she did not even hold on to the BJP vote base.

But otherwise it is 66-3-0-1 (INLD). Ridiculous.

[ag]

It will be interestingto see if AAP can move out of Delhi. Its 4 Lok Sabha members, of course, are all from Punjab. But, somehow, they seem to be a better fit elsewhere.

[ag]

Bedi's lead is down to 167 votes.

[ag]

Bedi's lead is down to 167 votes.

She is down by 281 votes. If she looses, BJP may be down to 3 seats.

[ag]

It seems it might turn out to be smthg like 67 AAP, 3 BJP, 0 everybody else. An epic landslide!

Interestingly, of the 3 districts which BJP is likely to take, one is a pick-up from INC (a mostly Muslim district, on top of it: INC and AAP split the vote) and another from AAP. Only one incumbent might survive.