Mexico June 7th 2015 elections

[ag]

Does anyone know where to find results?

there are prep links on the previous page of this thread. Very slow, though.

Yeah.  This year the results are coming in slower than normal.

There is a reason for that. In previous elections, in states that had both state and federal elections (this year these involve about 60% of voters nationwide) there would be 2 commissions in each precinct: one for the state election and one for the federal. This year there is one commission for everything.  In particular, in previous elections you first got the federal ballots, voted with them, then you went to the state table, got the state ballots and voted again. This year you got all ballots at the same desk. This means that before they even start counting they have to make sure the ballots are in correct boxes (previously, you could only have confusion between federal and between state ballots, but not between them). And then the same people have to count both federal and state votes, fill out two sets of actas and then send them to two different PREPs. Note, that the states with two elections are the main culprits this year: they have barely started reporting.

[ag]

Looking at the very little vote count coming in for Lower House, Morena is doing pretty well relative to PRD-PT.  Of course exit polls suggest otherwise.

Even more notable is the fact that altogether the leftists are winning very few seats on FPTP: the natural consequence of the splintered vote.

[ag]

Too early, but MC seems to be picking up the mayoralty of Guadalajara - and with strong coattails at the congressional level.

[ag]

PES is doing very well in HIDALGO for some reason.  Same thing for MC in JALISCO.

Coattails from popular municipal candidates, at least in Jalisco.

[ag]

PT is dropping towards the 3% threshold. May not be a reason for it to exist alongside the Morena.

[ag]

PT is not doing good.

[ag]

In DF borough mayor elections PAN seems to be safely ahead in Benito Juarez and Miguel Hidalgo, and barely ahead in Cuajimalpa (over PRI). PRI is, for the moment, ahead in the semi-rural Magdalena Contreras (barely) and rural Milpa Alta. There is a four-way race in Alvaro Obregon, but PRD/PT are ahead for the moment. PRD is also ahead in Coyoacan, Gustavo Madero, Iztacalco, Iztapalapa and Venustiano Carranza, while Morena leads in Azcapotzalco, Tlalpan, Tlahuac, Xochimilco and Cuauhtemoc.

[ag]

With 17.34% of the precincts reporting, the vote shares are

PAN          21.17
PRI           26.48
PRD            8.48
PVEM          7.35
PT               2.96
MC              6.05
PANAL         4.24
Morena      10.27
PH              2.39
PES            3.99
Ind             0.84
write-ins     0.24
Null            5.58

[ag]

In the Nuevo Leon race, so far, PRI is in third!

With 26.52% of precincts reporting

El Bronco 49.24%
PAN 23.91%
PRI+ 22.33%

[ag]

According to the preps, PAN looks reasonably ahead for Queretaro governor, slight PRI+ advantage for Colima and SLP governors, PRI is winning Campeche (nobody's surprise), PRD+ is winning Michoaan, while PRI+ is ahead in Guerrero, it seems. PRI is ahead in Sonora and PAN in BCS, but both on very few precincts reporting,

[ag]

With 20.10% of the precincts reporting, the vote shares are

PAN          21.24
PRI           26.45
PRD            8.59
PVEM          7.34
PT               2.91
MC              6.13
PANAL         4.17
Morena      10.15
PH              2.40
PES            3.95
Ind             0.84
write-ins     0.25
Null            5.52

[ag]

INE has announced the results of a rapid count (they randomly select a - hopefully - representative sample of precincts and try to estimate results based on that). According to them it will be

PRI 196 to 203 seats
PAN 105 to 116 seats
PRD 51 to 60 seats
PVEM 41 to 48 seats
Morena 34 to 40 seats
MC 24 to 29 seats
Panal 9 to 12 seats
PES 8 to 10 seats
Independets - 1
PH 0 to 1 seats (on FPTP)
PT seems out

So, PRI/PVEM majority is on the outer range of possibilities. Congratulations, PES! Condolences PT.

[ag]

With 25.11% of the precincts reporting, the vote shares are:

PAN          21.22
PRI           26.58
PRD            9.04
PVEM          7.11
PT               2.86
MC              6.16
PANAL         4.10
Morena      10.08
PH              2.40
PES            3.92
Ind             0.81
write-ins     0.24
Null            5.43

[ag]

Well, going to bed.

With 28.61% of the precincts reporting, the vote shares are:

PAN          21.19
PRI           26.65
PRD            9.30
PVEM          6.96
PT               2.86
MC              6.14
PANAL         4.06
Morena      10.05
PH              2.40
PES            3.92
Ind             0.79
write-ins     0.23
Null            5.38

[ag]

Seems like PRI picks up Sonora from PAN and Guerrero from PRD, while losing Queretaro to PAN, NL to independent and Michoacan to PRD. PAN holds BCS, PRI holds Campeche. SLP and, especially, Colima are very close, but, so far, advantage PRI (both would be holds).

[ag]

Based on what I read online the state of the governor races are the following:

Baja California Sur (current PAN)   -> PAN hold
Campeche (Current PRI) -> PRI hold
Colima (Current PRI) -> PRI hold
Guerrero (Current PRD) -> leaning PRI
Michoacán (Current PRI) -> 3 way tie between PRI PAN PRD
Nuevo León (Current PRI) -> PRI hold
Querétaro (Current PRI) -> neck and neck between PRI and PAN
San Luis Potosí (Current PRI) -> PRI hold
Sonora (Current PAN) -> leaning PAN

Results seems to be

Baja California Sur (current PAN)   -> PAN hold
Campeche (Current PRI) -> PRI hold
Colima (Current PRI) -> PRI hold
Guerrero (Current PRD) -> PRI gain
Michoacán (Current PRI) -> PRD gain
Nuevo León (Current PRI) -> Ind gain
Querétaro (Current PRI) -> PAN gain
San Luis Potosí (Current PRI) -> PRI hold
Sonora (Current PAN) -> PRI gain

So net flat for PAN and PRD and net loss of 1 for PRI with a net gain of 1 for Independent.

Colima margin is very small, and SLP not much larger, but, yes.

[ag]

Colima margin is 0.45% and shrinking. This one will only be determined in the oficial count.

[ag]

If it is Sinaloa, he is, probably, governor-controlled. He controls everybody there, irrespective of the party.

[ag]

If it is Sinaloa, he is, probably, governor-controlled. He controls everybody there, irrespective of the party.

I did notice that in SINALOA, there were several independent candidates one of which is actually ahead.  The vote share for these independent candidates seems quite substantial. What you are saying is that this is some sort of separate PAN faction controlled by the PAN governor ?   

There may be a PAN or a PRI faction not controlled by the governor there, but most of those who win, irrespective of the party, are controlled by him, from what I know.

[ag]

much of what is left would be problem precincts, which would not get into PREP. Wednesday is the real count.

[ag]

Something is going on in OAXACA 11th district.  Still no results in from that district.  The election violence must have been extra disruptive there.

Probably, district hedquarters disrupted and election could not be held.

[ag]

If PT will be disbanded after this election, what will happen to the PT MPs which got elected on the FPTP PRD-PT tickets.  I assume they will become independents?  Will they have the option to join PRD, Morena, or MC ?

There is no problem switchin fractions here.

[ag]

Now that PES is in, will PES and PAN form an alliance for 2018 ?

I would conjecture, PES would go for the highest bidder. If PAN has something to pay with, they will go with PAN. But do not count on them not joining PRI.

In any case, yeah, there is now a minor party on the right as well.

RIP PT.

[ag]

BTW, I may have been wrong on the Sinaloa independent. It is Manuel Clouthier Jr., the son of the sainted PANista candidate for presidency in 1988. The younger Clouthier recently had a big falling out with PAN and left the party. I am not sure what is his relationship with Malova (the governor), but he is, actually, a somebody, and not a puppet.

[ag]

My own precinct. It is in the federal district DF26, which PRI gained from PRD (it was a four-way race, PAN was second, Morena third, PRD fourth). But my precinct is reliably PANista. There are 2 polling stations in the precinct. Voters are assigned to the station alphabetically, so even though the stations were a couple of blocks away from each other the results should be similar, and they are.

Basica (mine)
PAN 127
PRI 26
Morena 24
PRD 15
PH 10
MC 6
PES 6
PVEM 4
Panal 4
PRD/PT 1 (one can choose to split the vote between parties sharing a candidate)
PT 0 (actual 0)
Spoiled 24

Contigua 1 (my wife's)
PAN 130
PRI 37
Morena 32
PH 11
PRD 10
PES 10
PVEM 5
Panal 5
MC 4
PT 2
write-ins 1
spoiled 32

The neighboring section (in the same neighborhood, couple blocks away) is also similar. It only has one box (but a few voters more):

PAN 141
PRI 46
Morena 46
PH 12
PRD 11
MC 9
PVEM 8
PES 7
Panal 5
PT 3
PRI/PVEM 1
spoiled 43

Turnout in both sections was over 50%, but, as you can see, high number of spoiled ballots. Urban, educated, richish.