Mexico June 7th 2015 elections

[ag]

A bit more than a week ago tehre was a Nuevo Leon governor poll by Parametria-El Financiero. The numbers a curious

Ivonne Alvarez (PRI-PVEM-Panal-PD) 40% 37%+2%+1%+0% - the last of the parties is a local outfit
Jaimer Eliodoro Rodriguez (Independent) 27%
Felipe de Jesus Cantu (PAN) 22%
Fernando Elizondo (MC) 5%
PRD 2%
PH 2%
PT 1%
Morena 1%
everybody else negligible

[ag]

A bit more than a week ago tehre was a Nuevo Leon governor poll by Parametria-El Financiero. The numbers a curious

Ivonne Alvarez (PRI-PVEM-Panal-PD) 40% 37%+2%+1%+0% - the last of the parties is a local outfit
Jaimer Eliodoro Rodriguez (Independent) 27%
Felipe de Jesus Cantu (PAN) 22%
Fernando Elizondo (MC) 5%
PRD 2%
PH 2%
PT 1%
Morena 1%
everybody else negligible

Interesting, it seems that now the election systems allows for independents we actually have a live case where it is making a difference.  I assume this independent is center-left as he seems to be taking vote share from parties like PRD PT and Morena.  If so I think a rational  PRD PT and Morena is to endorse this center-left independent to try to make fight of it with PRI.   

He is a former priista. NL has no left, really.

[ag]

Morena, surprisingly, is not  making as much of a splash as one would expect. But that is only one surprise. Things are not good.

The current government is incredibly corrupt. The general view among people in the know is that there has been nothing in recent history remotely like this. Most definitely, not during the previous three administrations. In many respects we are back to the 1970s. Whereas in recent past a public official could -and did - steal for this own benefit, this was, for the most part, incidental, at least in the federal government. If the public policy was good for him personally that was, obviously, welcome, but that was not the main point of the public policy. That has changed. Now it is the public policy that is incidental - stealing is the main objective, and if some reasonable public policy emerges as a by-product, so be it.

One would think the opposition would have a field day - but it does not. There is a strong feeling the government either bought up or intimidated most of its opponents. The PAN and PRD leaderships are pathetic, of course, but not even the opposition politicians currently on the back bench are doing much of the job. For that matter, even Lopez Obrador is a lot less visible these days - either tired, or otherwise marginalized. The most vocal protest comes from non-parliamentary groups, such as the radical unions (mostly teachers'). But they have no understanding of the real scandals, so they cannot exploit them. Nor do they have any interest in participating in the formal political system - rather, they are attempting to wreck it. Elections in Michoacan and, especially, in Guerrero are going to be conducted against a concentrated attempt to sabotage them.

To sum up, this is a very depressing environment. Hopefully, elections will still be reasonably democratic. But the overall situation is nasty, and getting increasingly worse.

[ag]

Yeah.  The level of trust in institutions like the military are reaching very low levels.  EPN I think might be losing control of PRI because the government normally does not permit the level of open criticism of the president that is happening now within Mexico.  The splintering of the left into a rump PRD and a ineffective MOREAN will make the left, especially if the election works out the way the polls indicate, feels that it had no adequate representation within the political system, which is potentially very dangerous.

What is going on is strange as you point out.  The government level of popularity seems to be the lowest since the 1990s economic crisis yet PRI-PVEM seems set to cruise to victory.  In theory PAN should be in a position to come back but all this stuff with Calderon and his wife infighting with the rest of PAN is keeping the PAN back.

Which level of criticism? This is, actually, extremely mild by historic standards. No sign of trouble inside PRI.

The PAN problem is not Calderon fighting with the party - calderonistas have been successfully marginalized. It is the extremely inept and noticeably small-time corrupt current leadership.

[ag]

Mexico is verging on fascism it seems...

Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini were, for the most part, perfectly upright civil servants, as far as stealing for personal benefit is concerned (Goering might have been another matter, but that is still not what he is, mostly, infamous for). The only ideology the present-day government of Mexico has, is lining its members' pockets. Stealing is not fascism and fascism is not stealing. It is merely regression to the 1970s.

[ag]

How much of Mexico's political instability is a result of the failures of the no reelección tradition?

Where do you see any political instability?

[ag]

At the last moment, PRD and PT in DF have made it up and will be going (mostly) in coalition. So, the DF alliances are

PRD/PT/Panal
PRI/PVEM
PAN
MC (including the Ebrardistas)
Morena
PES
PH

[ag]

At the last moment, PRD and PT in DF have made it up and will be going (mostly) in coalition. So, the DF alliances are

PRD/PT/Panal
PRI/PVEM
PAN
MC (including the Ebrardistas)
Morena
PES
PH

Interesting.  I always thought that PT will go with Morena as well MC.  Surprising that Morena did not lock in an alliance with either PT nor MC.

New parties are not allowed alliances the first time they run. Morena cannot go in an alliance.

[ag]

New parties are not allowed alliances the first time they run. Morena cannot go in an alliance.

Wow.  I did not know that.  I assume this is to make sure that a new party cannot get out of the minimal threshold rule via an alliance and that it must prove its support level by itself and survive as a party by itself before it can be allowed to form alliances?

Basically. And, notice, the period for registering new parties was open before the midterms, when there is only one ballot that counts: the House. In the fullterms you have a choice of one of three ballots: House, Senate and Presidency, and 3% in either one of those would preserve the registry. But the new parties have to survive the hard way.

[ag]

Seems like calderonistas have been able to nominate their (or, at least, non-maderista) candidates for governor in three crucial states where PAN does have a chance (Queretaro, San Luis Potosi and Michoaca - in that last one, Calderon´s native state, the candidate is, once again, Calderon´s sister).

[ag]

Today's Reforma poll on the attitude to the government. They poll both "citizens" and "leaders". A huge gap is opening between the two: whereas the "citizens" are ambivalent, the leaders are increasingly upset with the Peña regime. Figures in brackets refer to April 2013. Keep in mind that the minimal passing grade in Mexican schools is 6.

1. On the scale of 0 to 10 how would you grade the work of Enrique Peña Nieto as president

Citizens 5.0 (6.3 in April 2013)
Leaders 3.5 (7.1 in April 2013)

2. Do you approve or disapprove of how Enrique Peña Nieto is doing his work as president

Citizens: Approve 39% (50% in April 2013), disapprove 57% (30% in April 2013)
Leaders: Approve 17% (78% in April 2013), disapprove 82% (20% in April 2013)

3. What is the main problem in country today

Citizens:
Crime 48% (48% in April 2013)
Economy 26% (26% in April 2013)
Corruption 8% (3% in april 2013)

Leaders:
Corruption 63% (32% in April 2013)
Economy 17% (29% in April 2013)
Crime 13% (26% in April 2013).

It seems that the people in the know are very much aware of the increasing government corruption - and are rabid about it. But the government has been able to insulated itself from the popular rage. The average guy in the street does know that "they steal", but does not think anything out of the ordinary is going on. But all those of us who "know people" realize that things are quite different these days.

Note: "citizens" poll is a standard 1200 person sample. The "leaders" poll is obtained by sending questions to 4,666 persons in academia, politics and the private sector. This time 1,088 responded (including, full disclosure, your humble servant).

[ag]

Latest Parametría poll shows a 3 way tie in Michoacán in the race for governor.   I am surprised that the PAN is not way ahead.   It seems Morena has not captured any of the PRD vote here.  

Michoacan left is Cardenista, not Lopezobradorista.

[ag]

Latest Parametría poll shows a 3 way tie in Michoacán in the race for governor.   I am surprised that the PAN is not way ahead.   It seems Morena has not captured any of the PRD vote here.  

Michoacan left is Cardenista, not Lopezobradorista.

Yeah.  But Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas is also gone from the PRD.  You would figure that some of the Left vote would leave PRD to Morena if anything just out of revenge.  But at least in this poll the PRD vote share is holding firm.

It depends on who controls the local party organization. Probably, cardenistas are still in control locally.

[ag]

Latest Parametría poll shows a 3 way tie in Michoacán in the race for governor.   I am surprised that the PAN is not way ahead.   It seems Morena has not captured any of the PRD vote here.  

Michoacan left is Cardenista, not Lopezobradorista.

To be fair, AMLO did beat Calderón in Michoacan in 2006. Which would make a Panista win so, so very sweet for Señora Calderon.

Cardenas beat Fox there in 2000 - which is much more remarkable, as it was the only state he won.

Cocoa Calderon lost there to PRI in 2012 already. Calderons are a Michoacan family, of course, but Michoacan is no panista stronghold.

[ag]

Why did the Greens ally themselves with the PRI? The PRI seems much too technocratic for them, and their social conservatism puts them closer to the PAN, at least if it is true that the Mexican Greens have an uncharacteristic streak of social conservatism.

PVEM has no ideology whatsoever. They are in it purely for business purposes. Keeping hold of a political party register is very profitable in Mexico, and the profit is somewhat proportional to the vote tally. So, they do whatever they calculate should be done to maximize the vote, with no other objective in mind. To the extent they have any policies they really care about, these are, likewise, pure business. For instance, they care about promoting certain kinds of snake oil - because some of their leaders are related to the main snake oil producer. If you pay them enough for promoting medicinal qualities of koala piss, they will promote those medicinal qualities - by drinking it on the floor of the Congress, if necessary. Or you can pay them for promoting koala extermination - they will happily help pass a law ordering Mexican government to contact its Australian counterpart to make sure the last koala is exterminated.

In any case, trying to read any ideological concerns into their coalition formation is hilariously inappropriate. The only green thing about that party is its logo - and adopting it is the only ideological position the party ever took.

[ag]

http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/pages/asi-la-preferencia-nacional.html

Financiero poll still has PRI-PVEM way ahead. 

PRI-PVEM        40
PAN                 24
PRD-PT            13
Modera            10
MC                    4
PANAL              3

I don't get that at all. A fractured left and unpopular PRI should make this a better year for PAN. They might even lose in Nuevo León, which literally doesn't make sense.

They haven't governed in Nuevo Leon since 2003. Both the incumbent and his predecessor are priista.

PAN current leadership is pathetic, small-time but obviously corrupt, and seems to be on PRI pay.

[ag]

I have a question about the 8% rule: Will this rule allow for overhang seats like in Germany.  

We are not as sophisticated as the Germans. If the 8% is binding, this simply means that the party in question gets no allocation from the PR, but, of course, retains the seats it won directly.  The House size is fixed. So, if PRI wins in every district, while getting 35% of the vote, it will be 300 seats for PRI, 200 for everybody else, with even number 1 on the PRI PR slate not getting in.

Not that it is very likely, though. There IS tactical voting in Mexico. And there are quite a few partisan strongholds.

[ag]

Big news today. EBRARD IS OUT.

The Supreme Electoral Tribunal has ruled that Marcelo Ebrard was simultaneously trying to get PRD and MC nomination, which is banned by law. Hence, he cannot be a candidate this year. I am afraid, it may be the end of MC.

In other news, yesterday´s gobernatorial debates in Michoacan and Nuevo Leon. Reforma gives broadly high grades to 3 out of 4 major contestants in NL (including the Independent, the PANista and the MC guy) and trashes the performance of the PRIista Pavlovich.

[ag]

It seems that MC does poll at 3%-4% so could survive but I guess tactical voting will erode this.  If this is the end of MC, I assume most of that support will flow to Morena in the next election since MC really got started by AMLO anyway.

MC was not started by AMLO -  English wiki is wrong here. It is a personal vehicle of one Dante Delgado. AMLO always had to trade for that line: they were happy to adopt him, but at a cost. This time they traded with Ebrard.

Without Ebrard they will not get as many votes.

Ebrard's legal problem, according to the tribunal, was "legal sumultaneity". MC may have decided later - but the process was already going during the PRD decision. Whatever.

[ag]

http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/universitarios-votan-por-pan-los-de-menor-escolaridad-por-el-pri.html

http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/pages/personas-con-menor-escolaridad-prefieren-al-pri-pvem.html

Parametría has a poll which also has demographic breakdown of support among different parties.  They seem to have

PRI        34%
PAN       24%
PRD       13%
Morena  10%
PVEM      8%

What is interesting is how strong PRI is among those with no education and low income.   PRD and Morena which are supposed Leftist pro-poor parties are stronger relatively among those with higher income.    PRI has a nice scam going.  They run a disastrous education system which in turn produces a population with greater number those with lower education who in turn vote PRI at greater levels.

Though PRI did create a disastrous education system, they were out of power for 12 years. And, in fact, they did try to do something about it when they came back. Not that they have any clue what to do. Not that anybody does, at this point.

[ag]

Consulta Mitofsky poll on Sonora Governor race gives PRI slight edge.

PRI-PVEM-PANAL          46
PAN                             42
PRD                              9

which is a flip from 2009.  Although I read this poll as a tie as I am sure PRD will not end up with 9 but less than 5 as a result of tactical voting.   I suspect PRD vote will go to PAN as part of anti-PRI tactical voting.


For Baja California Sur it is PAN with an edge

PAN                           42
PRI-PVEM-PANAL       32
PRD-PT-MC                18

Which about the same as 2011.

Remember, that Sonora 2009 was an accidental PAN win, due, largely, to this

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Hermosillo_daycare_center_fire

Governor Padres was widely perceived as an accidental governor (which he was: and it did show in the way he governed). PRI has always given a priority to getting the state back.

[ag]

More constituency polls.  This time it is TAMAULIPAS 2nd district where the PRI and PVEM did not form an alliance.  Despite this it has PRI ahead of PAN who won this seat back in 2012. It seems lost some support and the Left hopelessly split.  



PRI       39.2
PAN      28.6
PRD       5.2
Morena  4.0
MC         2.0
PANAL    1.0
PT          0.8
PVEM     4.8

In 2012 PRI and PVEM did not have an alliance either it was

PAN             38
PRI              36
PRD-PT-MC   18
PANAL           4
PVEM            4

A big caution is necessary in taking the district poll results here seriously.

[ag]

Cuajimalpa borrough of DF (currently governed by PRI - the 2012 pick-up from PAN, which, in turn, was a 2009 pick-up from PRD). Reforma polling

PRI/PVEM 34%
PAN 25%
PRD/PT 15%
Morena 11%

[ag]

Rare bright spot for PAN in its middle-class stronghold: DF borrough of Benito Juarez. PAN has held it since the first election in 2000, but it never got over 44% of the vote, and last time barely made it with 39.7% against 39.4% for PRD. This time it should experience no trouble, at least according to this Reforma poll:

Christian von Roehrich (PAN) 45%
Jesus Gonzalez Schmal (Morena) 20%
Xiuh Tenorio (PRI/PVEM) 14%
Dinorah Pizano (PRD/PT) 10%
German de la Garza (MC) 6%
others 5% (between the three candidates of PH, PES and Panal)

In other news, Ebrard has been registered as a candidate for a "suplente" spot in Congress for MC (each congressional candidate runs in pair with a "suplente" who would take his job if the candidate himself resigns/takes a leave of absence). Still waiting for the courts' decision on this.

[ag]

Miguel Hidalgo borough of DF (it contains some of the richest parts of the city - Polanco, Lomas), but also some poorer districts (unlike the Benito Juarez, which is solidly middle class). MH had been in PAN hands from 2000 to 20012 (with a short break when a PANista delegado defected to PRD right before an election that replaced him with another PANista), but that year it was captured by PRD. This year PAN is running a heavy gun - Xochitl Galvez, former Indigenous Affairs secretary (a cabinet member) under Fox and an unsuccessful PANista candidate for Hidalgo state governorship. On the downside, PRI got an ex-PANista councilwoman, Laura Ballesteros to run on their ticket and a former PANista delegado, Arne aus den Ruthen is running as an independent, splitting PAN vote.  PRD, which is currently governing the borough, has to deal, of course, with the Morena split and, in addition its candidate just got enmeshed in a housing scandal (he lives just accross the border, in Cuahutemoc borough, so, to be able to claim that he is a local, he rented a penthouse in a newly built buidling - which turned out to be built illegally, with the aquiescence of the current PRD administration, and, possibly, of himself, as a local bureaucrat).

Anyway, this is the Reforma poll today

Xochitl Galvez (PAN) 33%
David Razú (PRD/PT/Panal) 28%
Laura Balleteros (PRI/PVEM) 14%
Hector Vasconcelos (Morena) 12%
Arne aus den Ruthen (independent) 10%
others (MC, etc) 3%

Xochitl Galvez has the advantage of beeing both best known and having the highest positives and lowest negatives (34% say they have a positive opinion of her, 11% say it is negative, 15% are neutral and 40% have no clue who she is). David Razú has the highest negatives (24% are positive, 17% negative, 18% neutral, 41% do not know him). The third best known candidate is Arne aus den Ruthen, even though he hasn't been a delegado in a dozen years (18% positive, 16% negative, 14% neutral, 52% do not know him). The others are unknown to 60% or more of the voters.