Mexico June 7th 2015 elections

[ag]

And with 50.29% reporting PT is down to 2.996676%

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51.38% reporting. PT is down to 2.990251%

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PT continues its descent.

52.48% reporting, PT at 2.985796%

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With 58.86% reporting, PT is still, slowly, going down: 2.978953%

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I never thought I would be hoping for a PT improvement

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Using simple extrapolation of results by state and then normalizing one gets PT is on track to get 2.85% which I think make them barely miss the 3%.  PT has to hope the remaining votes are more friendly than what has been counted.

The way it is going, it will wind up in the courts. PT lawyers will be going to try to annul as many precincts with below average PT vote share as they can. There may also be recounts.

Poor Lorenzo!

[ag]

With 65.27% repoting PT is at 2.973385% - a slight rebound.

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I get PT share to be 2.976412%. With numbers like this, it is better to deal with vote totals, not rounded percentages

[ag]

I get PT share to be 2.976412%. With numbers like this, it is better to deal with vote totals, not rounded percentages

Good point.

I mean, this is the first time in a long time one should care about thousandths of a percentage point

[ag]

Now extrapolation method I use at 70.64% counted gets PT at 2.843%.  Getting worse for PT.  Of course still plenty of space to come back.

You need to take into account that also the number of null votes is slowly growing.

2.971204%

[ag]

71.22% reporting, 2.970064 PT. Getting worse.

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Crazy results started showing up on the INE page. Seems like a lot of people are sleepy. I think, I will go as well.

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97.97% in.   PT at 2.829%  which after normalizing for nulls/write-ins is 2.974%
My extrapolation now at 2.826% which after normalizing for nulls/write-ins is 2.971%

Looks like PT is out,  PRI-PVEM will then most likely gain seats from 2012.

Being this close, there will be recounts and appeals to tribunals. There are ways of excluding some precincts through courts: PT lawyers will do their best to try to do that.

[ag]

Panista knives out for Madero. And it is well deserved: the idiot has run the party down. Hopefully, this will result in more robust opposiyion for the next 3 years.

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Real count 100.48% (not sure how that is possible but I am sure there is a reason)

Vote share

PAN          21.03
PRI           29.249
PRD          10.75
PVEM          7.014
PT               2.820
MC              6.11
PANAL         3.75
Morena        8.37
PH              2.147
PES            3.30
Ind             0.554
Other          0.131
Null            4.755

PT effective vote is  2.820/(1-.00131-.04755) = 2.964863

PRI+PVEM = 36.263

PRI+PVEM PR share = 36.263/(1-.02147-.02820-.00554-.00131-.04755) = 40.475260
                                                      ->  48.475260 of seats since at this stage PT is out.
                               

Apparently, they are claiming a software problem. Probably, somebody does not know how to use Excel again

[ag]

My calculation of the final? result is that PT is getting 2.97644% of the vote

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In Colima they first announced today that PAN was winning the governorship in the oficial count by 495 votes, and then, minutes later, corrected it to a PRI/PVEM by 547 votes. In any case, there will be a full recount.

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Real count 99.31%

Vote share

PAN          21.993
PRI           29.165
PRD          10.839
PVEM          6.942
PT               2.834
MC              6.135
PANAL         3.740
Morena        8.398
PH              2.155
PES            3.329
Ind             0.567
Other          0.132
Null            4.770

PT effective vote is  2.834/(1-.00132-.04770) = 2.980

PRI+PVEM = 36.107

PRI+PVEM PR share = 36.107/(1-.02155-.02834-.00567-.00132-.04770) = 40.324094
                                                      ->  48.324094 of seats

make sure you add the special precinccts with only pr vote. PT is doing worse there.

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Looks like OAXACA 5th and 11th results were able to come in although I thought a lot of ballots were burned in OAXACA 11th.  So will there be a re-vote in OAXACA 11th ?

we will have weeks before we know. INE has to rule, than there will be appeals to the trbunal, etc.

[ag]

This entire PT situation is a lot like the Florida 2000 situation.  Right now I think PT will be around 2500 votes short of 3%.   But that is across the whole country so it is very likely that a recount will produce the results that can generate that sort of difference, in either direction.  

So far it is about 6,500 votes that they are short.

[ag]

There is also a problem in Huixquilucan (a in Mexico State, right on the DF border, which includes a number of very rich districts - as well as a big chunk of Mexico's Jewish community).  PAN is ahead by some 400 votes (will be a pic-up if it holds). As the ballots were loaded to be taken to Toluca for recount, there were clashed between panistas and priistas.

Also a very close result in Tlalnepantla (another suburban municipality) - but there PRI is ahead. PAN seems to be confidently winning Atizapan and Naucalpan.

[ag]

Looks like

http://www.revistapuntodevista.com.mx/mexico/con-el-2-992-el-pt-a-punto-de-perder-su-registro/70992/

also came up with 2.992% for PT which mates my calcs.  If so then I estimate of about 3200 votes that PT will need to dig up is also correct.

Yep, it is is 2.991743, which is 3,131 votes short.

[ag]

So, ignoring the 8% rule, the allocation of PR seats on the current numbers (using the largest remainder, as the law specifies) would be

a) if PT does not make it
PRI 65
PAN 47
PRD 24
Morena 19
PVEM 16
MC 14
Panal 8
PES 7

b) if PT makes it
PRI 63
PAN 46
PRD 24
Morena 18
PVEM 15
MC 13
Panal 8
PES 7
PT 6

Of course, PRI should hit the bound, so they will have fewer PR seats in total, and others more. If PT makes it, PRI is capped at 197 seats, and if it does not, PRI goes up to 202 (in both cases it is a mere whisker from 198 and 203, but still below). However, we do not really know how many seats they will loose because of the cap (and, hence, how many seats are there to redistribute):  to do that, one needs to be certain which of the PRI/PVEM guys are registered as PRI, and which as PVEM.

[ag]

A few things I do know:)

1. For the purposes of PR distribution, Independent votes are subtracted from the total - see article 16 of the electoral law.

2. Seems like PAN - 55. That is what is on the INE official count. But some districts are very tight and will be recounted (see point 4).

3. The PR vote for joint candidates is unambiguous, and has already been distributed in our calculations. I believe, the FPTP identity of the candidate is provided in the nomination papers. But I might be wrong.

4. The law goes for automatic recount in a FPTP district if the margin is below 1% of the vote. I am not sure what, if any, are the provisions for the nationwide recount in a case like this.

5. But, and this is even more likely to change the results, there is a whole roster of reasons to try to recount and/or annul precincts selectively. TRIFE will have a few weeks to rule on that. Things rarely get much affected in the process - but you need very little here. PT lawyers have their work cut out for them.

[ag]

In Colima the official count is giving PRI a victory margin of 487 votes out of 299,869 votes cast. PAN is asking for a full recount.