Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[ag]

Regarding Yachad I assume it's Russiam supporting Marzel (most of the hardcore of Kach were Americans and Russians) not so much supporting Yishai the 'papuas' (dirty word I heard some Russians call him when he was in Shas)

Among "Russians proper", that is, of course, what it is. If we expand to "Soviets", there are also, possibly, some of the Bukharans and the Georgians. But that sector I know next to nothing about.

I don't really group them together either and can't say I know much of their voting patterns. I did a quick look on some towns and cities I know there's a big 'Kavkaz' population and it seems Likud+YB dominated very strongly last time with JH coming second and surprisingly YA third. They are generally more religious compared to the secular Russians yet I still doubt even Yishai can appeal to them

Well, considering that Shas has recently had a Bukharan and a Georgian MK, why not?

Might be with earlier immigrants\very religious ones. I just can't see the appeal for more traditionalists with Yishai. But can't say I know that sector very well so we'll have and see the results to see if there was any sway  

These communities are much more religious than you think.

[ag]

I am from one of these communities, and I can tell you that we may not be super religious but we are very traditional. Especially in Israel. This might have a role in some of them supporting people like Yishai.

Yeah, traditional is more like the right word. Who cares about G-d, when the salami is kosher.

[ag]

There is one detail that makes it slightly more comfortable for ZU than for Likud on the last day. Likud is, effectively, the left wing of its own coalition. Yes, there is also Kulanu, but Kulanu is, actually, for the Likudniks who hate Bibi, so Bibi (and the entire Likud campaign is Bibi now) has little appeal there. So, they are campaigning towards their own right, poaching from the parties they would need to form the coalition with. And two of those parties are in danger of not making it accross the 3.25% line, so not being able to differentiate makes it dangerous: too successful and effort would lead to a defeat. The main point of the campaign is to excite the convinced: but there is not even monotonicity of success in effort: G-d forbid, too many people show up, so that Yachad is pushed below the line. That is quite some equilibrating to do.

ZU, in contrast, is in the middle of its camp. YA and Kulanu (which it would need to form a government) are both to the right and are not in danger of failing. By moving towards the center ZU can pick up  votes without treatening to push anyone under, while pushing YA and Kulanu further right, where they can pick up some centrists. And it also leaves greater space for Meretz on the left: quite handy, given that Meretz is in danger of not making it.

In any case, Likud is running to the right and ZU is running to the center. Generally, running to the extreme is a sign of grave trouble for a major party: it only makes sense to do this if you are losing. Though, of course, the reason it makes sense at all is that the weaker party may, actually, win precisely by differentiating itself from the stronger one. Clearly, Netanyahu senses himself an underdog now. But he is fighting.

[ag]

Do you all know about what time results will start coming in?

Should start getting in midafternoon EST tomorrow. The problem is, there are some votes that will not be counted till Thursday. If any of the parties is right on the threshold, we may be in for a few funny days.

[ag]

Apparently, a Russian human rights activist (Elena Vassilyeva) has been detained on arrival to Israel. According to some reports (not certain, how verifiable these are) she has been told that the government of Israel does not want troubles with Putin, and that she will be deported back to Russia.

Anyway, not certain how reliable the report is, but if it is, this really makes one wonder about the foreign policy priorities of the current Israeli government.

[ag]

Though before even the exit polls are out you generally have a few hours of increasingly solid-sounding rumours. Israelis are a sufficiently gossipy bunch that these are generally not inaccurate, at least in general terms.

Yeah, but this will be the first time when there is a discontinuity in the electoral system. In the past Israel had no, or almost no real treshold. Even 2% of recent memory was not likely to change results significantly. Now, with the 3.25% trehshold we are in for a proper discontinuity. And that may be hard to get merely off rumors.

[ag]

3.25 is still one of the lowest thresholds in the industrialized world. For all the hand wringing that goes on, Yachad is really the only party in danger of not making it and they would have had trouble with the hold threshold. Even before the Arab parties united, UAL and Hadash were more likely than not to make it as well.

Mexico has just raised it from 2% to 3%, and I think that is far too high. Anyway, there are now quite a few lower threshold countries. Holland, for instance. Or Denmark. And in many of the countries with the higher threshold there are provisions for being elected from a district. And I am really concerned about Meretz and YB (not that I would at all mind YB missing it )

[ag]

So, tomorrow after 10 PM Israeli time we shall be looking here

http://bechirot.gov.il/election/English/pages/default.aspx

[ag]

News sites would, probably, be no worse, if not better. We shall see what works.

[ag]

Turnout running slightly below last time. 36.7% vs 38.3% in 2013 by 2pm

[ag]

And now Likud is basically implying the liberal parties are bussing in Arabs and buying votes.

This is disgusting. Even conservative Israelis should be appalled by how Bibi has Americanized their electoral process.

Speaking of which : my brother and I were wondering yesterday evening whether Israeli elections taking place on Tuesday is due to American electoral influence, or other type of influence. Broadly speaking, normal countries vote on Sundays, the sane option, and anglo-saxon influenced countries vote during the week, mainly on Tuesdays or Thursdays, the insane option.

Sunday is a work day in Israel, so no better than any other day. And Saturday would be impossible due to the Jewish Sabbath restrictions. And if Saturday is impossible, so is Friday and, in fact Sunday - otherwise you'd be discriminating against the Muslims and Christians. Hence, not much choice, really.

[ag]

45.4% by 4PM, against 46.6% in 2013.

[ag]

And now Likud is basically implying the liberal parties are bussing in Arabs and buying votes.

This is disgusting. Even conservative Israelis should be appalled by how Bibi has Americanized their electoral process.

Speaking of which : my brother and I were wondering yesterday evening whether Israeli elections taking place on Tuesday is due to American electoral influence, or other type of influence. Broadly speaking, normal countries vote on Sundays, the sane option, and anglo-saxon influenced countries vote during the week, mainly on Tuesdays or Thursdays, the insane option.

Sunday is a work day in Israel, so no better than any other day. And Saturday would be impossible due to the Jewish Sabbath restrictions. And if Saturday is impossible, so is Friday and, in fact Sunday - otherwise you'd be discriminating against the Muslims and Christians. Hence, not much choice, really.

Well, yeah, actually, still a choice between Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday ! So why Tuesday ?

Well, not really Thursday: getting too close to the Muslim Sabbath as well. Why not Tuesday then?

[ag]

I actually went back home without voting because of the massive cue at the ballot.

How is that even possible ?

There are 5.9 million eligible voters in Israel today and there are more than 10.000 polling stations. That's an average of 590 voters per precinct. Turnout is 70%, so 413 voters per precinct. You have more than 12 hours to vote, which means 40 people per hour.

There shouldn't be any line really and certainly not long enough that you need to go home without voting ...

Some precincts are bound to be above the mean, probably around 800 or even 1,000 in urban cores, and people do not distribute themselves well to vote at different hours, they tend to all go at a few selected windows. So I'm not shocked. Still, I get why you get frustrated coming from a country where polls open only Sunday morning till 1 PM and you get 80 % turnout on a bad day...

Yeah, people might vote in heavier numbers before going to work and after work or during lunch break. Therefore the lines.

Which means Sunday (or holiday) voting is pretty cool, since people are voting more evenly during the day and there is only 1 peak voting time: after lunch.

I guess Sunday (or holiday) voting is also good for getting enough poll workers, unless you use exclusively retirees - which have time any day.

(PS: polling stations in Austria do not close at 1pm, only in the state of Vorarlberg - which is Swiss-oriented)

Election day is a holiday in Israel, I believe.

[ag]

The 90 year old grandfather of the Likud MK Elkin collapsed and died at the polling station, right after voting.

[ag]

Regarding the Arab vote, it was Bibi saying that It's high, but Ahmed Tibi says that it's lower than last time, and I have no way of knowing what the truth is.

Haaretz says that, anecdotally, it is higher. Remains to be seen.

[ag]

54.6% turnout by 6 PM, as compared to 55.5% in 2013. The numbers getting closer to the last time.

[ag]

Interestingly Sunday is supposed to be the Christian sabbath/day or rest - and yet that doesn't stop overwhelmingly Christian countries such as France, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Chile, Argentina and many others from having national elections on Sundays!

Is there some rule i missed that says that Jews and Muslims consider voting to be "work" while Christians see it as a "rest day activity"?

Muslims, probably, not. But Jews... Well, first of all, you have to go out of your home. And on Saturday you cannot use any transportation, you cannot carry anything outdoors, etc., etc.. BTW, wouldn´t the ballot be carried? I am not religious authority here, but there are simply too many restrictions. And, of course, party and election workers would have to, you know, WORK. A Jew not only should not work on Saturday, but also should not cause another Jew working.

[ag]

Found an YB voter on livejournal (for the non-Russians: Russians, for some reason, like it). Interestingly, the motivation seems to be pro-Russian (and anti-Ukrainian)

[ag]

65.7% vote until 20:00, higher than any year since 1999 again, will probably pass 70% now.

Wonder, which party is mobilizing better. Who has better groundwork.

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30 minutes to go. And no leaks of exit polls, it seems. GET US SOMETHING!

[ag]

Could someone give a list of the parties sorted by whether they are left/right leaning? i.e.  which ones are likely to form a coalition with each other (and which ones are up for grabs)

Likud, YB and JH are right wing and would form a coalition together. They will be, most likely, joined by the relgious parties: Shas, UTJ and Yachad (the latter - a mixture of scraps from Shas and JH and an outright neonazi, all drawn together by the electoral threshold - but the Nazi would stay out of the government, letting the rest join).

ZU (Labor+Hatnua), Meretz, and, to some extent, YA are left wing and would easily join in a coalition between themselves. JL is a mixture of Arabs and communists, drawn together by the electoral threshold. They would, probably, support the left-wing coalition from the outside.

Kulanu is centrist and may be the kingmaker.

[ag]

Last-minute support call from Yachad. Looks like they are in danger, indeed. They say they are 1500 votes from the threshold. Could be a long night for everyone

[ag]

Likud 28
ZU 27
JL 13
YA 12

Yachad out

[ag]

So, broad left (including ZL) would be at 57. Kulanu is the kingmaker.