Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014

[ag]

FPTP constituencies so far leading

Independents 97
Poroshenko Bloc 62
Popular Front 20
Svoboda 6
Opposition Bloc 2
Batkivshchina 2
Strong Ukraine 2
Samopomich 1
Right Sector 1
Volya 1
Zastup 1

I assume Independents are mostly Oligarchs supported forces.

Wide variety. Many are longtime MPs, many of them from the erstwhile PR. Some are field commanders, who did not join any party. Etc., etc.

[ag]

Volya means Will, I think. Anyone got any idea who they are?

Freedom, actually. To Svoboda's Liberty.

[ag]

Volya means Will, I think. Anyone got any idea who they are?

Freedom, actually. To Svoboda's Liberty.

To be fair, all three concepts are sort of tied up with each other, and I might be missing nuances in the Ukrainian that aren't present in the Russian, but as a native Russian speaker who also speaks fluent English, I would say that Svoboda=Freedom, Volya=Will, and that Liberty would probably best be translated Vol'nost', which comes from the same root as 'Volya'.

Volya has multiple meanings in Russian. It is used in expressions like "last will" (последняя воля), it is true. But it is also used in expressions like "to set at liberty" (выпустить на волю). Given the words of the Ukrainian anthem ("Ще не вмерла України ні слава, ні воля") I would take the context to be the latter. Though, of course, the double meaning is there.

[ag]

83.33% reporting

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 22.01%
Poroshenko Bloc 21.64%
Samopomich 10.98%
Opposition Bloc 9.48%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.46%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.69%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.69%
Communists 3.91%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.15%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.10%
Agrarian Union Zastup 2.74%
Right Sector 1.82%

[ag]

94.56% reporting

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 22.22%
Poroshenko Bloc 21.81%
Samopomich 11.01%
Opposition Bloc 9.29%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.44%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.69%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.73%
Communists 3.84%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.11%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.09%
Agrarian Union Zastup 2.67%
Right Sector 1.81%

[ag]

How come the Poroshenko bloc won so many more seats than Popular Front despite the popular vote tie?

These are just the FPTP seats. Basically, there are 225 PR seats and 225 FPTP seats (of which 27 had no election this time due to Russian occupation of Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, so they will stay vacant for the moment). Allocation of the PR seats is pending the final count.

[ag]

Nearly there. 96.08% reporting

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 22.22%
Poroshenko Bloc 21.81%
Samopomich 11.03%
Opposition Bloc 9.30%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.44%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.69%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.73%
Communists 3.83%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.11%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.09%
Agrarian Union Zastup 2.66%
Right Sector 1.81%

[ag]

How come the Poroshenko bloc won so many more seats than Popular Front despite the popular vote tie?

These are just the FPTP seats. Basically, there are 225 PR seats and 225 FPTP seats (of which 27 had no election this time due to Russian occupation of Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, so they will stay vacant for the moment). Allocation of the PR seats is pending the final count.

Given the closeness of the party list vote and the lopsidedness of the FPTP results though, the Poroshenko Bloc will be the largest party even when both are combined.

Yes, of course, nobody has ever doubted that. The difference will be about 40 seats. Not nearly enough to form the government, though. Also, keep in mind, the FPTP MPs are pretty independent, irrespective of which line they chose for nomination. Ukrainian politics is not famous for party loyalty

[ag]

97.65% reporting

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 22.19%
Poroshenko Bloc 21.82%
Samopomich 11.01%
Opposition Bloc 9.34%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.44%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.69%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.72%
Communists 3.85%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.11%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.09%
Agrarian Union Zastup 2.65%
Right Sector 1.81%

[ag]

With almost complete results, somebody counted the total number of ultra-right nationalists MPs in the new Rada. There will be a total of 13 (including the Right Sector Yarosh, the 6 FPTP Svoboda people, a few independents and random ultras on the Radical Party slate). Of these, 1 is Jewish - in fact, an Israeli citizen (the Right Sector spokesman Bereza, elected as independent) - and 1 is over 80 and senile (Shukhevich, elected on the Radical Party slate - the guy is a major symbol due to his father, who was the famed Anti-Soviet partisan commander during and after WWII; the son spent most of his life in Soviet concentration camps and prisons and has never been elected till now; putting him on the slate had, of course, a lot of symbolic value, appealing to nostalgic - and, yes, ultranationalistic - vote). Overall the Rada has 450 seats, of which this election will fill 423. Thus, 13 ultras for 410 others. A most fascist outcome, for sure.

[ag]

Almost there.

99.41% reporting

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 22.17%
Poroshenko Bloc 21.82%
Samopomich 10.99%
Opposition Bloc 9.38%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.45%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.68%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.71%
Communists 3.86%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.11%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.10%
Agrarian Union Zastup 2.65%
Right Sector 1.81%

[ag]

Apparently, so far the seat distribution seems to be (including the FPTP with, I guess, at least some assignment of the independents to the parties they actually belong to - it is not infrequent for a party member to "self-nominate")

Poroshenko Bloc 137
Popular Front 82
Samopomich 33
Opposition Bloc 29
Radical Party (Lyashko) 22
Batkivshchina 18
Svoboda 6
Right Sector 3
Strong Ukraine 1
Zastup 1
Independents 94

[ag]

No map ?

One of the occasional posters here has done this

http://www.electoralgeography.com/new/ru/countries/u/ukraine/ukraina-vybory-v-verxovnuyu-radu-2014.html

Mind it, it is still preliminary. There are still a few polling places in Donetsk that have not been, technically, counted: mainly, as I understand, due to concerns about local ballot stuffing.

[ag]

And, finally, 100%

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 22.14%
Poroshenko Bloc 21.81%
Samopomich 10.97%
Opposition Bloc 9.43%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.44%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.68%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.71%
Communists 3.88%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.11%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.10%
Agrarian Union Zastup 2.65%
Right Sector 1.80%

[ag]

Preliminary distribution of PR seats

Popular Front 64
Poroshenko Bloc 63
Samopomich 32
Opposition Bloc 27
Radical Party 22
Batkivshchina 17