Ukrainian parliamentary election - 26 October 2014

[ag]

19.83% reporting, the front-runners are 102 votes apart!

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.65%
Prosohenko Bloc 21.64%
Samopomich 10.34%
Opposition Bloc 9.61%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.72%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.96%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.54%
Communists 3.90%
Agrarian Union Zastup 3.27%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.13%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.11%
Right Sector 1.77%

[ag]

21.18% reporting

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.68%
Prosohenko Bloc 21.65%
Samopomich 10.43%
Opposition Bloc 9.57%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.71%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.92%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.57%
Communists 3.88%
Agrarian Union Zastup 3.22%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.12%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.11%
Right Sector 1.78%

[ag]

22.63% reporting

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.71%
Prosohenko Bloc 21.62%
Samopomich 10.49%
Opposition Bloc 9.57%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.69%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.90%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.58%
Communists 3.88%
Agrarian Union Zastup 3.17%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.13%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.11%
Right Sector 1.79%

[ag]

Any news on Yarosh's constituency?

Seems like he is in. So far he has 30%, against 13% for the runner-up.

[ag]

About a quarter in. 24.17% reporting

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.70%
Prosohenko Bloc 21.61%
Samopomich 10.53%
Opposition Bloc 9.63%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.65%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.89%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.58%
Communists 3.90%
Agrarian Union Zastup 3.13%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.13%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.12%
Right Sector 1.79%

[ag]

These results seem pretty stable. I seem to recall there wasn't much change in the presidential election either, from the time counting started to the time it ended.

They are counting very slowly. So, from each new dump there is very little change. But there are trends.

[ag]

25.71% reporting. Zastup has, finally, sunk outside of the top 10.

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.67%
Poroshenko Bloc 21.63%
Samopomich 10.56%
Opposition Bloc 9.62%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.62%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.87%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.59%
Communists 3.91%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.13%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.13%
Agrarian Union Zastup 3.12%
Right Sector 1.79%

[ag]

And leaders in districts

Independents 100
Poroshenko Bloc 62
Popular Front 15
Svoboda 6
Batkivshchina 2
Opposition Bloc 2
Strong Ukraine 2
Samopomich 1
Zastup 1
Volya 1
Gromadska Sila 1
Right Sector

[ag]

27.37% reporting. Svoboda starts crawling up - probably, too slowly.

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.67%
Poroshenko Bloc 21.63%
Samopomich 10.66%
Opposition Bloc 9.64%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.58%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.83%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.61%
Communists 3.89%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.15%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.11%
Agrarian Union Zastup 3.07%
Right Sector 1.81%

[ag]

Anyone know why Yarosh is running as an independent if Right Sector is on the ballot?

He is not. It was my typo. Now corrected.

[ag]

No. I found him on the electoral commission website. He's listed as self nominated even while his party is listed in the list results.

On the results page he is listed as nominated by Pravy Sektor. District 39

[ag]

28.85% reporting. Samopomich is building up.


Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.67%
Poroshenko Bloc 21.60%
Samopomich 10.75%
Opposition Bloc 9.62%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.53%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.82%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.63%
Communists 3.89%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.16%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.11%
Agrarian Union Zastup 3.04%
Right Sector 1.83%

[ag]

Interesting result from Donetsk. Districts 41-44 are the city proper, and there was no election there. However, District 45 takes in the suburb of Avdiyivka, which is under Ukrainian control. A long time local MP, erstwhile PR member, Zvyagilsky, gets into the Rada there with just under 1500 votes (72% of those cast - there weren't many precincts open in the district).

[ag]

I wonder what the worst record for gender imbalance in modern times, in free elections and in the cultural West (or thereabout) is.

Out of 200 constituency seats, women are currently leading in 4, and one of these may not hold. From what I know of Ukraine, the vast majority of women are in the workforce, they are near parity in the free professions and most, if not all, people would not have a problem voting for a female candidate.  Odd that the results are so lopsided.

Well, there will be much more on the PR part. Of the 60 names in the top 10 of the above-the-threshold lists, there are 17 women (5 in Samopomich, 3 each in Poroshenko Bloc, Popular Front and Batkivshchina, 2 in Opposition Bloc and 1 with Lyashko) . At least those 17 are pretty much guaranteed to be in.

[ag]

I wonder what the worst record for gender imbalance in modern times, in free elections and in the cultural West (or thereabout) is.

Out of 200 constituency seats, women are currently leading in 4, and one of these may not hold. From what I know of Ukraine, the vast majority of women are in the workforce, they are near parity in the free professions and most, if not all, people would not have a problem voting for a female candidate.  Odd that the results are so lopsided.

FEMEN is from Ukraine. I always thought that was kind of weird. Maybe there's an undercurrent of sexism we don't know about.

What do you mean we do not? We do. Of course, it is equally strong, if not stronger in Russia: but in Russia you go to prison for FEMEN-style actions.

BTW, of the women winning in FPTP districts 2 are from Lviv and 1 from Volyn. Bloody fascists.

[ag]

65.88% reporting. Fairly similar, though trends continue


Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.70%
Poroshenko Bloc 21.41%
Samopomich 11.12%
Opposition Bloc 9.86%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.37%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.66%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.70%
Communists 3.95%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.16%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.12%
Agrarian Union Zastup 2.75%
Right Sector 1.87%

[ag]

69.71% reporting

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.79%
Poroshenko Bloc 21.47%
Samopomich 11.12%
Opposition Bloc 9.75%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.39%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.66%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.72%
Communists 3.94%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.15%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.11%
Agrarian Union Zastup 2.73%
Right Sector 1.86%

[ag]

Oh God. Svoboda is increasing every time.

Far too slow. Still at 4.72% with 70.86% reporting.

[ag]

So the agrarian party that's doing pretty okay is linked to former president Yushchenko. Remember him?

I wonder about this women's party that's doing okay. Didn't Kuchma's wife led a women's party? Is this the same one?

What's it's name?

Solidarity of Ukrainian Women. 0.66% of the vote. I do not know if it qualifies as "ok"

[ag]

75.09% reporting

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.93%
Poroshenko Bloc 21.50%
Samopomich 11.10%
Opposition Bloc 9.62%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.39%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.67%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.73%
Communists 3.92%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.14%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.11%
Agrarian Union Zastup 2.72%
Right Sector 1.84%

[ag]

Lots of wasted votes. Third largest party is people who didn't get in.

Actually, it is the largest party - just under 23% of the vote. But it is not too bad for this electoral system.

[ag]

Lots of wasted votes. Third largest party is people who didn't get in.

Actually, it is the largest party - just under 23% of the vote. But it is not too bad for this electoral system.

23% seem pretty high when compared to Germany who also have a 5% threshold.  Even Greece in May 2012 had only 19% vote for parties below the 4% vote share and that was a chaotic election in terms of party system.  It does make sense since there was a significant realignment of parties and voter preferences since the last election so every party wants to try out its chances alone.  As long as no big changes takes place in the party system (which given Ukraine seems unlikely), the next election should have a much smaller vote share for parties that did not make it past the threshold.

It's the matter of one party coming really close to the threshold and still not making it. Get a tiny bit more to Svoboda, and it drops to around 18%.

[ag]

77.25% reporting

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.95%
Poroshenko Bloc 21.54%
Samopomich 11.08%
Opposition Bloc 9.58%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.40%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.68%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.73%
Communists 3.93%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.13%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.12%
Agrarian Union Zastup 2.72%
Right Sector 1.84%

[ag]

80.84% reporting

Popular Front (Yatsenyuk/Turchinov) 21.94%
Poroshenko Bloc 21.61%
Samopomich 11.03%
Opposition Bloc 9.53%
Radical Party (Lyashko) 7.43%
Batkivshchina (Timoshenko) 5.69%
______________________________

Svoboda 4.70%
Communists 3.92%
Strong Ukraine (Tihipko) 3.14%
Hromadyanska Poziciya (Hrytsenko) 3.12%
Agrarian Union Zastup 2.73%
Right Sector 1.83%

[ag]

FPTP constituencies so far leading

Independents 97
Poroshenko Bloc 62
Popular Front 20
Svoboda 6
Opposition Bloc 2
Batkivshchina 2
Strong Ukraine 2
Samopomich 1
Right Sector 1
Volya 1
Zastup 1

And the number of women on this list is down to 2 (both from Lviv, one from Samopomich, 1 from Prosohenko´s Bloc).