Hypothetical: Putin bombs Poland and/or Baltics. What happens?

[ag]

Why would he bomb Poland or the Baltics to begin with?

An "uprising" of Russians in the Baltics starts. "Polite men" take control of Narva, Kohtla Jarve, Sillamae, Daugavpils, etc. Estonia and Latvia activate article 5, but only Poland responds. Polish troops help recover some of the Russian-controlled population centers in the east, there are a few hundred dead. Russian aviation bombs Polish positions, Polish aviation tries to fight back.

Is this plausible? At this point, I am afraid, a lot more likely than not.

[ag]

Article 5, NATO military response.

What kind of response?

And would Europeans and Americans really risk a potentially massive war, even if both sides promised to refrain from nuclear weapons?

Or has NATO been a bluff all along?

I am pretty sure that if nukes were not an issue, US and Europe would respond. If not for the nukes, repelling the Russians would not be such a big deal: Russian military, as I understand, at least as of today, is still mostly moribund, though some units have been brought into shape. Massive US bombardment would likely take care of much of air defense and of Russia's capacity for conventional retaliation against Europe.  Kaliningrad exclave would, probably, fall within the first week of the war - and I wouldn't bet against St. Petersburg either. Conventionally Russia is not a major threat. It is the nukes that are the problem.

[ag]

You guys are getting way ahead of yourselves. This is not going to happen; Putin is very aware of the costs of even going into eastern Ukraine; that's why he hasn't yet. Ukraine's military response in the past two days has made it less likely that he ever will. Putin's actions in the past couple of months have been a crime of opportunity; he sees a chance too easy to pass up: but raise the potential costs, even a little, and he's liable to back down.

That is the key: raise the costs now.

[ag]

Nuclear War, between the European states that have Nuclear Weapons and Russia and China (Republicans and Congressional Liberals successfully block U.S Intervention)

Russia ends up occupying a European wasteland (as they have more nukes than Europe) With the exception of Britain, which they don't bother to occupy.

Putin considers preemptively bombing the U.S, but decides against it.

Please, they got 77 Senators and most of the House to vote for a completely unjustified war. This would obviously pass Congress.

Yep, I guess at that point 80+ senators would certainly vote for military response.

[ag]

The real question is what becomes of Kaliningrad- does it become Koenigsburg or Krowliec?

Karoliavicius.

[ag]

Complete hypothetical: Putin bombs Poland and/or the Baltic states.

How would the world respond? What would NATO do? What would China do? Who would support Russia?

This would be full out war, kind of WWIII, but not the same scale as WWII, since Russia wouldn't have many allies. China would not ally with Russia.

I agree that China would likely sit out if a conflict between Russia and the U.S. broke out. In reality, Russia's only allies would be Iran, Venezuela, Cuba and North Korea. On the other hand, our main allies would be all the NATO member states, South Korea, Japan and Israel.

Actually, I would not even be sure about Iran. They are not insane to get into a loosing game.

[ag]

NZ would stay out, Australia would be 50/50, Japan would be involved only if China wasn't.

On that note I wouldn't be surprised if several NATO states were to flake--Greece, Bulgaria, Turkey?

Tartar factor will be important in Turkey. If anything, I would expect there to be multiple pathways to Turkish involvement.

BTW, rumors are, the Volga Tartars got quite a bit riled up by what is going on. Whatever sociological studies that are coming out of there, have suddenly started to show significant ethnic tension.

[ag]

NZ would stay out, Australia would be 50/50, Japan would be involved only if China wasn't.

Militarily? No reason even to ask for their help (except in case of Japan). In terms of sanctions - I am pretty sure they all will be on board.

And China will stay out. Russian defeat will open up Siberia for China. It only benefits from the Western victory here. If anything, I will expect friendly neutrality, followed by the appearance of the Asian-looking "local self-defense units" in Khabarovsk and Vladivostok.

[ag]

Iran would stay neutral. The Middle East is becoming less and less relevant because it's less important now as a source of fossil fuels; a world war will either start in Eastern Europe or over one of the disputed island chains in the Pacific. There's no way the leftist governments in Latin America would be dumb enough to go to war, especially Cuba (which would last a solid week). It would be Russia and perhaps the ex-Soviet states that are Russian clients (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia) against NATO and possibly Japan/Australia/New Zealand.

Belarus and Kazakhstan will stay out. They might send symbolic best wishes and allow some volunteers (mainly, to get them out of their own countries). Their dictators have no vested interest in Russian success here - in fact, they fear it more than anything else. Belarus, at least, might be forced into the war, as it is geographically located between Russia and the West. Kazakhstan will certainly not do anything. Venezuela would, of course, declare that it is on board - but it can't really do anything, other than vote with Russia in the UN.