Chilean Presidential Election 2013 - Doomsday is here!

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Well, it's Matthei. Couldn't be more straightforward: another referendum on Pinochet.

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The question is not, whether Everlyn Matthei supports Pinochet or the coup (still less whether she makes it the only campaign issue - she can´t be that stupid). The question, rather, is, whether it is going to be possible to vote for a Matthei against a Batchelet in this election, without declaring your own, de facto, support for the Pinochet and the coup. Symbols matter, you know.

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The question is not, whether Everlyn Matthei supports Pinochet or the coup (still less whether she makes it the only campaign issue - she can´t be that stupid). The question, rather, is, whether it is going to be possible to vote for a Matthei against a Batchelet in this election, without declaring your own, de facto, support for the Pinochet and the coup. Symbols matter, you know.

They do, but this election is different to the others in some ways. While there are vocal minorities that have an actual hatred for the other side (and not just the usual mutual contempt, many people hate Bachelet and many people hate the entire right), I believe that most people are tired to the whole "Yes-No politics" (which go as far as the 1988 plebiscite), and that as symbolic as it might be to the vocal minority, there are more pressing matters that will decide the vote for the majority that has to be motivated to vote.

This might have been the case before, with different candidates. Can it still be the case w/ a Matthei vs. Bachelet race? Matthei agreeing to be the candidate by itself converts it into a referendum. Short of coming out strongly and forcefully against the old junta (including her own father),  I can hardly think what she can do to avoid this being the main theme of the entire race. The only way she could be running for president without making it the yes/know referendum that I see would be if she had made her career on the left, not on the right.

Bachelet shouldn't be taking anything for granted, though. Whoever takes a presidential race for granted, loses against a determined opponent.

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Bachelet does not need to do anything to frame the campaign. This is so obviously implicit in the entire situation, that saying anything explicitly is simply unnecessary.

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With 98.66% counted

Bachelet 46.69%
Mattei 25.01%
Ominami 10.96%
Parisi 10.13%
Claude 2.8%
Sfeir 2.34%

Everybody else peanuts.

In Antofagasta, actually, Parisi is in second place. Elsewhere, though, Mattei is second.

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Diputados (by district)

District 1 (Arica)
Nueva Mayoria (PS/PPD) 44.02%
Si Tu Quieres, Chile Cambia (PRO/PL) 24.40%
Alianza (RN/UDI) 24.03%

Close, but looks like 1 PS, 1 PL (if confirmed, the PL leader Vlado Mirosevic is elected)

District 2 (Iquique)
Nueva Mayoria 38.64%
Alianza 36.86%

1 Communist, 1 UDI

District 3 (Calama)
Nueva Mayoria 49.13%
Alianza 36.45%

1 PRSD, 1 UDI

District 4 (Antofagasta)
Nueva Mayoria 37.33%
Alianza 34%

1 PRSD, 1 RN

The first 4 districts seem to be 4 NM, 3 Alianza, 1 "ominamista"

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District 5 (Copiapo)
Nueva Maoyria 65.91% - both seats
Alianza 26.97%

1 Communist, 1 Independent left (?)

District 6
Nueva Mayoria 57.15% - both seats
Si tu quieres,.. 22.23%
Alianza 20.61%

1 PRSD, 1 Christian Democrat

District 7
Nueva Mayoria 56.04%
Alianza 34.01%

1 PS, 1 UDI

District 8 (Coquimbo)
Nueva Mayoria 51.89% - looks like both seats!
Alianza 24.79%

Close, but looks like 1 Christian Democrat, 1 Communist

If this holds, these 4 districts give 7 seats to NM and just 1 to Alianza!

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District 9
Nueva Mayoria 72.08% - both seats
Alianza 21.86%

1 PS, 1 PPD

District 10
Alianza 46.52%
Nueva Mayoria 42.32%

1 UDI, 1 PS

District 11
Nueva Mayoria 55.52%
Alianza 36.53%

1 PPD, 1 RN

District 12
Nueva Mayoria 43.65%
Alianza 42.63%

1 PS, 1 UDI

Alltogether 5 NM, 3 Alianza

The first 12 districts break down 16 NM, 7 Alianza, 1 third party

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District 13 (Valparaiso)
NM 48.04%
A 33.09%

1 Christian Democrat, 1 RN

District 14 (Viña del Mar)
A 41.66%
NM 39.86%

1 UDI, 1 PPD

District 15
NM 45.4%
A 43.06%

1 Christian Democrat, 1 UDI

District 16
NM 45.3%
A 32.85%

1 Christian Democrat, 1 UDI

4 NM, 4 A for a total  of 20 NM, 11 A, 1 the rest

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District 17
NM 43.33%
A 31.58%

1 PPD, 1 RN

District 18
NM 50.02%
A 32.79%

1 PPD, 1 RN

District 19
NM 53.59%
A 32.33%

1 Communist, 1 UDI

District 20
NM 46.34%
A 34.22%

1 PPD, 1 UDI

4+4; Total NM 24, A 15, 1 the rest

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District 21
A 42.12
NM 39.86%

1 RN, 1 PS

District 22 (Santiago)
Independent (Giorgio Jackson, a student leader, NM did not run anyone) 48.14
Alianza 38.2%

1 Independent, 1 Independent Alianza

District 23
Alianza 68.75% - both seats (probably the only district in the country)
NM 21.56%

1 UDI, 1 RN

District 24
NM 40.54
A 36.48%

1 Christian Democrat, 1 UDI (both close)

5 A, 2 NM, 1 I; total 26 NM, 20 A, 2 the rest

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District 25
NM 58.12% - both seats
A 24.71%

1 PPD, 1 Christian Democrat

District 26 (La Florida)
NM 51.2%
A 35.93%

1 Communist, 1 UDI

District 27
NM 58.19% - both seats
A 26.61%

1 PPD, 1 PS

District 28
NM 51.32%
A 30.66%

1 Communist, 1 RN

District 29
NM 41.18%
A 38.81%

1 PS, 1 RN

District 30
NM 34.52%
A 30.44%
Si tu quieres, Chile cambia 28% (close, but seems no champaign)

1 PS, 1 UDI

8 NM, 4 A; total (for half the seats) 34 NM (PS9+PPD8+PDC7+PCCH6+PRSD3+Ind1), 24 A (UDI14+RN9+Ind1), STQCHC 1 (PL1) , 1 Ind

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District 31
NM 47.98%
A 39.41%

1 PS, 1 UDI

District 32 (Rancagua)
NM 53.17%
A 40.98%

1 PS, 1 UDI

District 33
NM 59.05% - both seats
A 27.73%

1 Christian Democrat, 1 PPD

District 34
Independent (Alejandra Sepulveda) 42.05%
A 28.48%
NM 25.07%

1 Ind, 1 UDI

NM 4, A 3, Ind 1

total 38 NM (PS11+PPD9+PDC8+PCCH6+PRSD3+Ind1), 27 A (UDI17+RN9+Ind1), STQCHC 1 (PL1) , 2 Ind

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District 35
NM 49.97%
A 40.59%

1 Christian Democrat, 1 UDI

District 36
NM 56.6%
A 36.06%

1 Christian Democrat, 1 UDI

District 37 (Talca)
NM 49.66%
A 44.06%

1 Ind Left, 1 RN

District 38
NM 57.63%
A 42.36%

1 Christian Democrat, 1 UDI

4+4
total 42 NM (PS11+PDC11+PPD9+PCCH6+PRSD3+Ind2), 31 A (UDI20+RN10+Ind1), STQCHC 1 (PL1) , 2 Ind

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District 39
NM 57.09%
A 36.02%

1 PPD, 1 UDI

District 40
NM 55.1%
A 41.72%

1 PPD, 1 UDI

District 41
NM 49.92%
A 42.52%

1 PRSD, 1 RN

District 42
NM 64.55% - both seats
A 31.73%

1 Christian Democrat, 1 PPD

NM 5, A 3

total 47 NM (PDC12+PPD12+PS11+PCCH6+PRSD4+Ind2), 34 A (UDI22+RN11+Ind1), STQCHC 1 (PL1) , 2 Ind

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District 43
NM 54.5%
A 30.36%

1 PPD, 1 UDI

District 44
NM 47.76%
A 34.62%

1 Christian Democrat, 1 UDI

District 45
NM 58.43% - both seats
A 27.73%

1 PS, 1 Christian Democrat

District 46
NM 57.69%
A 36.25%

1 PS, 1 UDI

5 NM, 3 A

total 52 NM (PDC14+PPD13+PS13+PCCH6+PRSD4+Ind2), 37 A (UDI25+RN11+Ind1), STQCHC 1 (PL1) , 2 Ind

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District 47
NM 56.37% (likely both seats, but extremely close)
A 28.04%

1 PRSD, 1 Ind L (tough the second seat might go to UDI)

District 48
NM 50.44%
A 44.39%

1 Christian Dem, 1 RN

District 49
NM 58.71%
A 37.33%

1 Christian Dem, 1 RN

District 50
NM 56.33%
A 37.12%

1 Christian Dem, 1 RN

5 NM, 3 A

total 57 NM (PDC17+PPD13+PS13+PCCH6+PRSD5+Ind3), 40 A (UDI25+RN14+Ind1), STQCHC 1 (PL1) , 2 Ind

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District 51
NM 50.99%
A 46.51%

1 PPD, 1 RN

District 52
NM 50.43%
A 46.66%

1 PRSD, 1 RN

District 53
NM 54.22%
A 34.24%

1 Christian Dem, 1 RN (close)

District 54
NM 55.06%
A 38.01%

1 PPD, 1 RN (close)

4+4

total 61 NM (PDC18+PPD15+PS13+PCCH6+PRSD6+Ind3), 44 A (UDI25+RN18+Ind1), STQCHC 1 (PL1) , 2 Ind

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District 55
NM 57.36%
A 35.79%

1 Christian Dem, 1 UDI

District 56
NM 61.12%
A 30.66% (gets a seat, at this point, but barely)

1 PS, 1 UDI (could be Christian Dem instead)

District 57
NM 50.87%
A 29.7%

1 Christian Dem, 1 UDI

District 58
NM 50.67%
A 36.29%

1 PS, 1 RN

District 59
NM 46.57%
A 38.44%

1 Ind Left, 1 UDI

District 60
NM 32.13%
Independent (Gabriel Boric, a student leader) 26.17%
A 22.2%

1 Chrstian Dem, 1 Ind

6 NM, 5 A, 1 Ind

total 67 NM (PDC21+PS15+PPD15+PCCH6+PRSD6+Ind4), 49 A (UDI29+RN19+Ind1), STQCHC 1 (PL1) , 3 Ind

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To sum, up, the house seems to be (in brackets change from 2009)

Nueva Mayoria 67 (+10):
   Partido Demócrata Christiana (PDC) 21 (+2)
   Partido Socialista de Chile (PS) 15 (+4)
   Partido por la Democracia (PPD) 15 (-3)
   Partido Radical Socialdemócrata (PRSD) 6 (+1)
   Partido Comunista de Chile (PCCH) 6 (+3)
   Assorted independents 4 (+3)

Alianza 49 (-9)
   Union Demócrata Independiente (UDI) 29 (-8)
   Renovación Nacional (RN) 19 (+1)
   Assorted Independents 1 (-2)

Partido Liberal (PL, previously with Alianza) 1 (+1)
Partido Regionalista de los Independientes (PRI) 0 (-3)
Independents 3 (+1)

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And the Senate, where 20 seats were contested in 10 districts seems to be

Nueva Mayoría 12
   Partido Socialista de Chile (PS) 4
   Partido por la Democracia (PPD) 3
   Partido Demócrata Christiana (PDC) 2
   Movimento Ámplio Social (MAS) 1
   Assorted independents 2

Alianza 7
   Union Demócrata Independiente (UDI) 5
   Renovación Nacional (RN) 2

Independents 1

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Seems like the current tally for the House has one more seat for Christian Dems at the expense of the UDI than I had counted (therefore 68 for NM, 48 for A). I haven´t figured out where I am wrong. This would mean Alianza is down to just 40% of the seats. Isn´t it some sort of a threshold for some laws?