Italy 2013 official results thread

[ag]

The better guide for the Camera, at this point, seems to be the margin. Right now it's just under 408 thousand votes - down from about 500 thousand a couple of hours ago. May be very close

[ag]

What's surprizing is that it has been a long time since any seats in the Senate changed hands. Many places are quite close, but the lead doesn't change almost anywhere.

[ag]

Just over 404 thousand now.

[ag]

And, seconds later, 401.

[ag]

On the other hand, Piedmonte in the Senate is now getting very close. Been stable at around 6,000 votes for a while, but just dipped to under 4000 votes (in favor of the right, still).

[ag]

La Repubblica still has a 1.5% Bersani lead for the Camera. Unless you guys have a source that updates even faster, preferably without prompting.

Same source. It is now 382 thousand votes (yes, of course, for Bersani, and it is around 1.5%, but shrinking fast)!

[ag]

368 thousand!

[ag]

Per Grauniad liveblog, apparently Grillo has said he's uninterested in propping either man up and suggested a Grand Coalition.

Well, that, probably, means another election, indeed.

[ag]

376 thousand - a bit up for Bersani.

[ag]

Piedmonte Senate is within about 2,500 votes!

[ag]

And now 356 thousand! Less then 10,000 sections left, though.

[ag]

161 thousand vote margin! Less than 2000 sections left, though.

[ag]

What are the odds of another election before the end of the year? Seems likely with the state in the Senate.

Perfect way to give an absolute majority to Grillo in the senate.

Considering that it is he, who refuses to join in any coalition, this would be triply insane. Should the rest of Europe start preparing for Italian default?

[ag]

146 thousand!

[ag]

What are the odds of another election before the end of the year? Seems likely with the state in the Senate.

Perfect way to give an absolute majority to Grillo in the senate.

Considering that it is he, who refuses to join in any coalition, this would be triply insane. Should the rest of Europe start preparing for Italian default?

Look at the number of seats for Berlusconi + Grillo...it should be enough to have a pretty easy answer.

To which question?

[ag]

I acknowledge your latter point. Believe me, I understand. But you honestly don't believe a 0.1% margin is worth another look?

In a US congressional elections 0.1% is frequently something like 300 votes - within a scope of some tabulation error. Even when a million votes is cast, 0.1% is 1000 votes - might be worth another look indeed: minor counting mistakes might (though are not very likely) account for it. But 0.1% margin w/ 10 million votes is 10,000 votes. The only realistic way it would be reversed on a recount is if there was a systematic malfeasance during the election (the probability of minor counting mistakes all going in one direction in such a way that they accumulate to those many votes is very small). In the present election we are talking of over 120,000 votes: unless you have very good evidence of the possibility that election was stolen, calling for a recount is trolling.

[ag]

Too bad there won't be a Grand Coalition, that might have given M5S a shot at winning the inevitable election a year later.

Well, you have to be Grillo to believe that professional politicians are fools.

[ag]

I'm pretty much resigned at this point to a second election leading to either a Berlusconi comeback or an M5S government.

I could imagine M5S getting a majority in the House. But how the hell would they get a Senate majority (unless the electoral system will have been changed, of course)? And, assuming they don´t, who the hell would support them?