2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

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I've got to agree with Mr. Moderate here.  Without a solid message Daggett's not going to be able to come anywhere close to 5%.  People that would vote for him will just stay home like they usually do.  Independents tend to overpoll.  Getting 5% for the total "Other" vote gives him about 2%.

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Unimportant: All three candidates are from awesome places and I might just vote for Daggett because he graduated from my high school.  Though I live in the same town as Christie and plan on living in the the same town as Corzine after I graduate.  Cool.

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Hudson County should be very interesting.  I'm wondering if Christie might even be able to drag Corzine into the 50s.  And I'm also wondering if Christie can cut Corzine down to four counties (Hudson, Essex, Mercer, Camden).  Corzine's got money problems, grassroots problems, loyalty problems, and worst of all machine problems.  I honestly can't see him being able to make it into a single digit loss even in the best case scenario.  Which makes me worry about the prospect of Democrats pulling another Torricelli.

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Hudson County should be very interesting.  I'm wondering if Christie might even be able to drag Corzine into the 50s.  And I'm also wondering if Christie can cut Corzine down to four counties (Hudson, Essex, Mercer, Camden).  Corzine's got money problems, grassroots problems, loyalty problems, and worst of all machine problems.  I honestly can't see him being able to make it into a single digit loss even in the best case scenario.  Which makes me worry about the prospect of Democrats pulling another Torricelli.

Christie will probably win a town here or there (he'll probably do well in Secaucus, for instance). The machine is great, but a lot of the people they (sometimes literally) drag out to the polls will show up anyway. Low 60s.

FYI, if Corzine loses by the kind of margins the polls are currently showing, he won't even win Mercer.

Yeah, low 60s is what I'm thinking of as the most likely.  And as far as Mercer goes, I always thought of it as the most partisan area in the state.  I just can't see it voting for Christie.  And I doubt Christie will win by 15 points.  If it were tomorrow, I'd probably guess around 11 or 12.

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What would a Republican-controlled government in NJ do, I wonder? What happens if there's a Gov. Christie and a Democratic legislature or a Gov. Christie and a split legislature?

I don't see many social issues coming up, aside from same-sex marriage, which is fairly minor. There are major budget problems. Yet people seem most unhappy about local taxes, or at least everyone I know is. What are a Republican government's priorities?

I hope no one seriously argues it's to "clean up government"; at best we'd see a drop in corruption as the new bosses take over, and then a gradual ramp-up to previous levels, as patronage shifts from the cities and the Dem machines to Republicans in swing districts. I'm curious about policy.

That's the problem, no one knows and Christie's not talking.  There are no specifics, just the not Corzine effect and cleanliness.

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That's the problem, no one knows and Christie's not talking.  There are no specifics, just the not Corzine effect and cleanliness.

Just out of curiosity, have you ever looked at the issues section of Christie's website?

Actually, I hadn't since the primaries.  Good thing you brought that up, because I'm much more impressed with what he's suggesting now than I was back then.

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Considering Christie's lack of tangible retaliation to the constant Corzine attack ads, I'm inclined to assume he's biding his time and saving his cash.  Either that or the "Clueless Chris Christie" name may be appropriate.

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Haha, that was so lame.  It would have been better with just Christie and Corzine in it, they were pretty good.

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Hahaha, Corzine is attacking Christie's driving record?!  He really has no sense of self awareness does he?

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Yeah, I think anyone with real political knowledge should know that Daggett's poll numbers are more of a "not them" vote than actual support.  Most of his supporters have no idea what he supports but know he's not Corzine and he's not Christie.

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Excellent, the tide has turned, good may just triumph over evil.

When you start referring to any New Jersey politician (except maybe Cory Booker) as good, you know you've lost it.  I cannot begin to understand how much of a hack one must be to not only desire a Corzine win, but also characterize it as good triumphing over evil.

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WHAT A JOKE.

What makes this shithead worse is that he actually duped us into thinking he would run a campaign that wasn't inept enough to sink him to 30% in any other state.  At least the others weren't as big disappointments.  We knew we had the suckiest candidate ever with all of the other losers.  Seriously, how could you NOT win against Jon Corzine?  Oh yeah, because it's New Jersey and he has a D next to his name.  And glad to see Norcross back in the game again, fucking fantastic.

Worst state politics ever.

Whew, rant over.  That feels better.

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Signs mean shit.  I saw about 3,700 Ron Paul signs in 2008 and guess who won the Republican Primary!  Not Ron Paul!  How about the general election?  Still no beans for the sign man!  I reiterate; Signs mean shit.  Getting out the North Jersey vote is what matters.  Corzine has finally captured the attention of the average Hudson/Essex County hack.  That's his advantage.

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Well, I'm definitely still a Republican.  I just filled out my ballot and voted straight Republican for the first time ever.  It feels weird.  I also voted heavily Italian.  Biondi, Ciattarelli, Scaglione, and Gaziano all got my vote.  There are a lot of women on the ballot, too.  And a stupid public question I voted no for.  So put one in the Christie column!

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After watching this campaign closely I've come to the conclusion that New Jersey does deserve four more years of fail.

You're from Oklahoma.  You're the very last person that should be passing judgement on any other state's voters or candidates.

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Brad Henry is your peak.  I wouldn't be so jubilant about pointing that out.  He's more conservative than most Republican Governors.  Not to mention that he's the ONLY sane office holder in the state.

The point is we both live in glass houses.

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Wow, good to hear the Senator's still alive and even aware of this race.  He sure fooled me.  That alone is worth a news story.

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burden of proof appears to be on you, especially considering you are asking me to defend an assertion that I did not make.

Proof of what?

why would a Corzine victory be decidedly preferable?  what, exactly, would be made better?

All it boils down to is that they like the letter D better than the letter R.

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Judging based on the support each candidate is getting from each party, I'm inclined to think this is going to incredibly close.  Christie's locked up Republican support obviously, but Corzine's support with Democrats and Christie's with Independents make for some conflicting expectations.  What I mean is that if Christie has strong support from Independents, I'm inclined to believe he'll be able to win off their support judging by their past late support of the Democrats.  On the other hand there's a huge gap in the usually fiercely partisan Democratic Party, which makes me believe they'll begrudgingly come home to Corzine on election day, giving him a surge.  If Christie takes the Independents by the amount he's been leading he should win, but if the Democrats show up for Corzine, he should win.  That confuses me.  Does it make sense to you guys?

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Too bad that not every county voted and trended like Mercer ...

Too bad for who?  Certainly not New Jersey...

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Wow, sinking even faster than I thought...

Uh...the expectations were much worse.  Do you really think after revealing that budget any Governor in the country would have approvals as high as Christie?

This guy should have pretty hilarious approvals a year from now.

Yup. Safe Cory Booker in 2013.

Yeah.

No.  Cory Booker is NOT running for Governor.

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Wow, sinking even faster than I thought...

Uh...the expectations were much worse.  Do you really think after revealing that budget any Governor in the country would have approvals as high as Christie?

This guy should have pretty hilarious approvals a year from now.

Yup. Safe Cory Booker in 2013.

Yeah.

No.  Cory Booker is NOT running for Governor.

What makes you think he's not?

Him.  Not only has he declined he has interest in running in specific races, he has made it abundantly clear that his dedication is to Newark and not politics.  He's not a politician looking to further his career.  All he's interested in doing is fixing Newark.  He's been very supportive of Christie, refused opportunities for higher office already, and is facing difficult reelection as it is.

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Him.  Not only has he declined he has interest in running in specific races, he has made it abundantly clear that his dedication is to Newark and not politics.  He's not a politician looking to further his career.  All he's interested in doing is fixing Newark.  He's been very supportive of Christie, refused opportunities for higher office already, and is facing difficult reelection as it is.

Really? I hadn't heard this. What's the issue? I'm hardly an expert on NJ politics but most of the (national) media narrative is he's supposedly been quite successful.

There are certainly factions of the Democratic Party who never liked Booker (too white!) and never will, but they shouldn't amount to much. Make no mistake, Booker is a heavy favorite to win re-election.

Yeah, exactly.  He's going to win, his team is just worried that he won't have his perfect council and won't win 70+% again, thus damaging his rising star status.

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As much as I'm not happy to see the gashes Christie is inflicting in our impressive state-provided services, especially education, I can definitely respect the fact that he seems willing to be hated for the cause he stands for.  Conviction is a major improvement on the average New Jersey political personality.  And he's doing something that will definitely move us in a direction we need to go in.  Our last slew of Governors were too concerned with themselves to bite the bullet and do what we all hate to admit needed to be done.  I look forward to hearing what the legislature has to offer in place of the cuts Christie made.  They have both expressed their interest and I'm hopeful there really is another realistic solution.