LOL, It's So Atlas to think anyone is going to vote off based what some random staffer did 3 months before the election. It's not like it was Davis himself assaulting random people at bars.
It's certainly something the Democrat could turn into ads and pound him with for all of October, but I think if Davis was ever going to lose, he'd still lose without this incident being weaponized against him. His district is around Trump+5.5 and Romney+0.3. This is exactly the kind of district that would be highly vulnerable in a Democratic wave year.
Agreed. He seems like yet another another Republican incumbent the pundits are vastly overrating like Herrera Beutler, MacArthur, etc. Likely R, really?
Oh yeah, it's always been pretty overrated. This district shifted the least towards Trump of any downstate district and it doesn't rely on ancestral Democrats to be competitive. Davis has never been less vulnerable than, say, Bost in IL-12.
That being said, even if no one is going to be voting based on this, the negative coverage it'll generate in the meantime will impact. I doubt you'll see any ads over a drunk field director, at least not after Davis apologized promptly and fired the guy, but right now in pretty much every important paper in the district you've got a headline with Davis' name, a staffer arrested, and a mugshot, with twitter video on the website. It won't help him, that's for sure.
