Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[One Term Floridian]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1494319726268280835

Kandiss Who?

[One Term Floridian]

Starting to have a terrible feeling Wanker is going to avoid a run-off with like 50.2% of the vote. The Kemp coattails are definitely going to help him to a degree. That's the fear I have right now. This is not exactly a state known for its heavy ticket-splitting.

[One Term Floridian]

Starting to have a terrible feeling Wanker is going to avoid a run-off with like 50.2% of the vote. The Kemp coattails are definitely going to help him to a degree. That's the fear I have right now. This is not exactly a state known for its heavy ticket-splitting.

Lowkey random but it is possible to create a congressional district that voted for Warnock-Perdue in the election runoffs, about 5,000 votes split their ticket that way in this hypothetical seat, or 1% difference.

It’s small but not unrealistic to assume Kemp wins and Walker fails to make 50

I imagine this is a district that includes the ATL suburbs/exurbs? Sure, but Warcock outperformed Assoff by a little over 0.5% in the 2021 run-off. The polls have Hemp utterly trouncing Abrams by at least mid-single digits if not close to 10%. Wanker can afford to lose quite a bit of ground and still win with the state's polarization alone.

*Apologies for using humor as a coping mechanism rn: by replacing a single letter in Warnock/Ossoff/Kemp/Walker to bring some hilarious results*

[One Term Floridian]

Starting to have a terrible feeling Wanker is going to avoid a run-off with like 50.2% of the vote. The Kemp coattails are definitely going to help him to a degree. That's the fear I have right now. This is not exactly a state known for its heavy ticket-splitting.

Lowkey random but it is possible to create a congressional district that voted for Warnock-Perdue in the election runoffs, about 5,000 votes split their ticket that way in this hypothetical seat, or 1% difference.

It’s small but not unrealistic to assume Kemp wins and Walker fails to make 50

I imagine this is a district that includes the ATL suburbs/exurbs? Sure, but Warcock outperformed Assoff by a little over 0.5% in the 2021 run-off. The polls have Hemp utterly trouncing Abrams by at least mid-single digits if not close to 10%. Wanker can afford to lose quite a bit of ground and still win with the state's polarization alone.

*Apologies for using humor as a coping mechanism rn: by replacing a single letter in Warnock/Ossoff/Kemp/Walker to bring some hilarious results*

It sorta is, it’s basically all of Northern Fulton, some of Gwinnett, and the city of Kennesaw.

Also if it’s any comfort Governor performance and senate performance have low correlation compared to most races

Not really in GA. The last time both were on the ballot in 2014, only ~0.1% separated the D margins in Gov & Sen. Now don't get me wrong there is going to be more of a split this year owing to Wanker's unique weaknesses as a candidate but it's unlikely to be significantly more than 3% or so... and I am starting to think that's not going to be enough.