Hopefully no one, but I think it looks like that:
1. Joe Manchin (WV): He will work with the GOP majority and President Trump on the most issues. If he's running again, I'll give him a 70% chance of being reelected as an "Independent voice in the Senate". But a strong challenger and it could shift very easily into a real fight. The seat will go Republican if he retires, what I also wouldn't rule out.
2. Heidi Heitkamp (ND): She needs to be a major target, the 2012 shock with that Rick Berg low-energy loser was pretty bad. She'll run again, GOP has a good and deep bench in ND. I assume it as a possible, but not totally easy pickup.
3. Jon Tester (MT): He'll cheat again with a Fake-Libertarian who in fact is a hidden Democrat to take votes away from the GOP. But in a midterm and without Obama turnout, this won't be enough. One of the easiest pickups.
4. Joe Donnelly (IN): He'll be toast - unless Richard Mourdock is running on the GOP side.
5. Claire McCaskill (MO): Only question is the margin of defeat - unless Todd Akin is the Republican nominee.
6. Sherrod Brown (OH): 50:50 at the moment. He could very well be reelected with a slim margin against a average Republican candidate. If John Kasich is running, Brown will win Cuyahoga County - but nothing more.
7. Bill Nelson (FL): Hopefully he retires, otherwise my bet is on him.
8. Bob Casey (PA): I don't even consider it a target. Easy going. So hopefully he gets a milion dollar Job offer and retires...
9. Tammy Baldwin (WI): Do it Scott Walker! Otherwise it will be close.
10. Debbie Stabenow (MI): Don't see a path.
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On the GOP side, I hate Flake for his shameful behaviour towards Trump, but I hope he works with him well and survives the backlash in the Primary like McCain did. Then the seat will be likely Republican.
Dean Heller managed to survive Obama 2012. I would be shocked if he loses in a midterm.
So, my advide for the GOP is to run decent candidates and the Senate will be as Republican as before the New Deal.
You realize Clinton didn't win last week right?
