Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide (user search)
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  Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide (search mode)
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Author Topic: Italian Elections and Politics 2018: Yellow Tide  (Read 298631 times)
Mazda
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« on: February 04, 2018, 06:05:23 PM »

OK, something I have been wondering about - can anyone explain what the... purpose of the minor parties in the Centre-Left coalition are? like, who are pro-europa and why are they standing?
Italian politics is a wasteland of splinter groups and micro-parties, and it is felt in the major parties that some of these groups have enough quality people in them to be worth allying with.

For instance, Piu Europa are made up of tiny splinter parties led by Benedetto della Vedova (elected last time in alliance with Forza Italia but now a junior minister for the PD government), Emma Bonino (formerly a presidential candidate and Foreign Secretary), Bruno Tabacci (a former Christian Democrat who has been around forever) and another group who are basically pointless but have three deputies. Piu Europa therefore has enough decent people and enough of a distinct brand to appeal to liberals who might not otherwise vote for PD, and the coalition will therefore benefit electorally.

The reason why micro-parties have so many decent people is because the party system in Italy is constantly changing (for instance, Insieme includes the Greens, who used to be quite a major centre-left ally but subsequently collapsed, but there are still a lot of former Green deputies involved with the party and some of them aren't awful) and was obviously completely reshaped in 1994. Della Vedova and Bonino were prominent figures in the Italian Radical Party, which was relatively important in the 1970s and 80s, but made some stupid decisions and now the former Radicals are spread far and wide in different clientelist micro-parties and factions within major parties.

The clientelism is also key, of course.
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Mazda
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Posts: 90


« Reply #1 on: February 07, 2018, 01:18:27 AM »

Does Italy do proportional representation, constituency seats, a combination, or something else entirely? It seems like it would be proportional or similar based on the number of small parties with a shot at representation.
A combination of both, which is far more complicated and arcane than it really needs to be. It's a new electoral system for this election, explained here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Italian_electoral_law_of_2017

They used a completely proportional system from WWII to 1994, but that ended badly. A different completely PR system was used from 2006 until last election, and also ended badly, hence the two -
 count 'em, two - attempts at reform by the current government.
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Mazda
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Posts: 90


« Reply #2 on: February 13, 2018, 07:11:27 PM »

Hard to see a minority M5S government work; the only possibility would be for Lega Nord and FDI, but numbers probably won't add up.

Unless the center-right coalition gains an outright majority on the 4th of March, it will disintegrate the day afterwards.
PD will never go into government with either Lega or FDI, so any Great Coalition would be limited to PD, FI (but the two of them, plus minor allies, probably won't have the numbers to do it), and perhaps LEU and M5S together. But that would be quite a push.

I think the chances of a M5S-LN-FdI coalition are underestimated.  M5S and LN both has to just over-perform current polls a bit (most likely through depressed PD turnout) and I think a majority for this bloc seems quite possible, especially if LN sweeps a lot of the Northern FPTP seats with FI support.

The problem is that the M5S membership is inevitably going to have to vote for the coalition.
The M5S membership votes for whatever the leadership decides to, in their fake "direct democracy".
Are the votes rigged, or are the voters just unduly influenced by the opinions of their leaders?
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Mazda
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« Reply #3 on: February 19, 2018, 09:38:31 PM »

The PRI is a bit of a blast from the past - and it seems that ALA are (or have been made) very clear on which of the two of them has the strongest brand recognition.
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Mazda
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« Reply #4 on: March 04, 2018, 10:56:42 PM »

Slightly confused - +Europa are currently at c.2.8%, so they won't cross the threshold and will only get their uninominal seats, unless they pick up later. But does that proportional vote just go to waste or is it given to the centre-left coalition?
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Mazda
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Posts: 90


« Reply #5 on: March 04, 2018, 11:00:27 PM »

Slightly confused - +Europa are currently at c.2.8%, so they won't cross the threshold and will only get their uninominal seats, unless they pick up later. But does that proportional vote just go to waste or is it given to the centre-left coalition?

It goes to the rest of the coalition (that is to say, to PD).
Oh, so it's not quite as bad as it looks for PD, then.
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Mazda
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Posts: 90


« Reply #6 on: March 05, 2018, 05:48:35 PM »



The Map is done. A few errors and rounding inconsistencies are always possible; a handful of polling districts are also outstanding (though shouldn't alter anything of significance).
Shouldn't Sudtirol be in red due to the SVP's membership of the Centrosinistra? Or have I missed something?
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Mazda
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Posts: 90


« Reply #7 on: March 10, 2018, 01:32:14 PM »

"Show us on the doll where the Tiber touched you"
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