CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[LimoLiberal]

McAdams looks done in UT-04, latest SLC votes are going for Owens.

NJ-07 will be super close, have to see how the election day provisionals shake out though I bet Kean wins in the end (AP blown call).

Republicans will win CA-48, CA-39, CA-21 and hold CA-25.

AZ-01 will be super close but O'Halleran should hold on if the number of votes outstanding is correct.

Brindisi actually has a non-negligible chance in NY-22 with the mail-ins uncounted but Tenney is still the heavy favorite.

Malliotakis has won NY-11 even if the AP hasn't called it.

Suozzi, Delgado, and Patrick-Maloney will be fine once the mail-ins are counted.

IA-02 is a tossup, just have to wait for the recount.

In the end, Republicans will probably pickup FL-26, FL-27, MN-07, NM-02, SC-01, NY-11, NY-22, IA-01, UT-04, OK-05, NJ-07, CA-21, CA-39, and CA-48. Democrats will gain NC-02, NC-06, and GA-07.

That's a Republican net gain of 11. Most unsure about NY-22, AZ-01, IA-02, NJ-07, and UT-04.

House looks to be 221-214.

[LimoLiberal]

I think Cisneros was killed by Trump's gains with Asians and Hispanics. 99% sure Biden won the district by less than Hillary, which I doubt is true in CA-48 and know isn't true in CA-45 (Clinton +5 to Biden +11).

[LimoLiberal]

SLCo just dumped 17k ballots and it only decreased Owens lead by 60 votes

That is an awful sign for mcadams

NYT has McAdams up by 1600, where are you getting your numbers?

[LimoLiberal]

SLCo just dumped 17k ballots and it only decreased Owens lead by 60 votes

That is an awful sign for mcadams

NYT has McAdams up by 1600, where are you getting your numbers?

They are talking about this vote dump. McAdams needs a bigger lead than her currently has to overcome the rest of the suburban/exurban dumps remaining. The fact he only netted 60 in the most liberal part of the district is not good.

I believe the suburban/exurban counties are done, leaving about 32K ballots in SLC. But yeah, if McAdams is barely winning these SLC drops that's not going to be enough.

[LimoLiberal]

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/margin-in-nj-7-down-to-14405-votes/

Per NJ Globe, Malinowski is up 14K in NJ-07, with 70K uncounted (presumably including provisionals, which are expected to be heavily R). For comparison, he was up by 28K on election night. A lot of the uncounted ballots are from Morris, where Kean has been gaining with each ballot drop. This one isn't over.

Kean will win, probably with a 5K margin or more.

Kim looks golden in CA-39, Steele has won in CA-48 and Valadao will probably win in CA-21. I think Garcia is favored in CA-25 as well. If Owens holds on in Utah and Marianette Miller-Meeks somehow takes the lead in the recount Rs will net 12 seats for a 220-214 Democratic majority. Republicans would then have been like 20,000 votes (IA-03, IL-14, TX-15) from a House majority.

Holy sh**t.

[LimoLiberal]

Garcia will take back the lead with Tuesday and Thursday's updates from Ventura County

[LimoLiberal]

Garcia will take back the lead with Tuesday and Thursday's updates from Ventura County

Gotta hope man.

What are you hearing (if anything) from the campaign?

[LimoLiberal]

The first Korean-American woman elected to Congress is neither Young Kim nor Michelle Steel, it's Representative-elect Marilyn Strickland in WA-10.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marilyn_Strickland

None of them are the first Korean-American in Congress. Andy Kim from New Jersey, and there were others before him.

Edit: oh god this is just a riff off the stupid Charlie Kirk tweet from 2018 fml

[LimoLiberal]

CA-25 is lost I think.

Smith now leads by 1,300K according to the CA SoS. Looks like more Ballots came in late last Night from LA County
https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-rep/district/25

Ventura County will come through.

[LimoLiberal]

NJ-07
Malinowski (D, inc.) 193,138 (51.66%)
Kean Jr. (R) 180,713 (48.34%)

Kean will win and it won't be particularly close.

[LimoLiberal]

Terrible SLC batch for McAdams, Owens wins 10164-9128, seems like Owens is on path to victory at this point.

Will Utah's new moderate FF RINO governor make sure there's a central SLC seat? It's a terrible indictment on the state (and gerrymandering) that they're sending Burgess Owens to Congress over Ben McAdams.

[LimoLiberal]

I think Garcia still wins with the LA later dumps (maybe provisionals?) breaking R, but it will definitely be close.

Not sure about #CA21, but my instinct is that the race ends up bouncing between 51-52-48-49 Valadao-Cox with continuously less Democratic Kerns updates balanced by everything else. But I don't have a really good handle on the vote count there.

Biden won the first batch of Onandaga (Syracuse) mail-ins 80-17 (he had been winning the county 53-44) which makes me really curious about NY-22. Brindisi needs like 76% of the mail-ins assuming no ballots are disqualified and I think he'll get close.

For NJ-07, the reason I'm so sure that Kean will win is that everything out seems to be provisional and he'll net more from them in every county. It's just basic partisan vote disparity stuff, Joe Biden didn't even win the in-person votes in Mecklenburg County.

[LimoLiberal]

God, the late vote dumps have really wrecked California democrats. Such a dramatic shift from 2018.

[LimoLiberal]

When can we expect the first absentee dumps from NY?

This is all I've seen so far.
https://twitter.com/AnthonyDabbundo/status/1326285688229294081

[LimoLiberal]

https://www.wktv.com/content/news/Counting-of-absentee-ballots-underway-in-22nd-congressional-district-573033491.html

"Cortland County has finished; 3545 of their absentees went to Brindisi, 1101 to Tenney, and 130 to Libertarian, Keith Price."

Brindisi up 7% overall in the county based on this info, running behind his margin by 4% in 2018. Feels like he needs to run up the score in Broome and Oneida to have a chance, otherwise he'll probably fall a few points short.

Calling it for Tenney based off that info.

[LimoLiberal]

OK, so the NYT has it at 218 D to 201 R with 16 remaining. I believe CA-34, which is between two Democrats, is not being counted, so we can toss it to the Dems for 219. Conversely, it looks like LA-05 is going to a runoff, but the Democrat might not even make it in and I don't think anyone seriously thinks she stands a chance, so we can toss it to the Rs for 202. Here's my analysis of the rest:

CA-21: There are enough votes left that I'm not going to say Cox is out, but I haven't seen encouraging news, I don't think. Likely R, Rs at 203.

CA-25: Razor thin, almost certainly recount territory and idk how the rest of the votes will go. Tossup.

CA-39: This really should have been called already. Safe R, Rs at 204.

UT-04: Certainly does not look encouraging for McAdams. Utah is a bad state. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 205.

IA-02: This one's really recount territory. Tossup, edge Miller-Meeks.

IL-14: Also should have been called already, better luck next time GOP. Safe D, Ds at 220.

NY-24: That's a thicc margin for Katko. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 206.

NY-22: Also a pretty good margin for Tenney even though she is bad. Thanks upstate NY. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 207.

NY-19: Delgado is already winning and I don't think the margin is getting any friendlier for Rs. Likely D bordering on Safe, Ds at 221.

NY-18: Same story as the 19th.  Likely D, Ds at 222.

NY-03: I'd be quite surprised if absentees don't pull Suozzi over the finish line. Likely D, Ds at 223.

NY-02: In contrast, this margin seems titanic. Likely R bordering on safe, Rs at 208.

NY-01: Same story as the 2nd but more. Safe R, Rs at 209.

NY-11: Looks like Malliotakis has the margin to win. Get pranked Rose. Likely R, Rs at 210.

Does this seem about right to everyone?

Yeah, but Malinowski's going to lose in NJ-07 and CA-10 will be closer than expected, though Harder will still probably win.

[LimoLiberal]

OK, so the NYT has it at 218 D to 201 R with 16 remaining. I believe CA-34, which is between two Democrats, is not being counted, so we can toss it to the Dems for 219. Conversely, it looks like LA-05 is going to a runoff, but the Democrat might not even make it in and I don't think anyone seriously thinks she stands a chance, so we can toss it to the Rs for 202. Here's my analysis of the rest:

CA-21: There are enough votes left that I'm not going to say Cox is out, but I haven't seen encouraging news, I don't think. Likely R, Rs at 203.

CA-25: Razor thin, almost certainly recount territory and idk how the rest of the votes will go. Tossup.

CA-39: This really should have been called already. Safe R, Rs at 204.

UT-04: Certainly does not look encouraging for McAdams. Utah is a bad state. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 205.

IA-02: This one's really recount territory. Tossup, edge Miller-Meeks.

IL-14: Also should have been called already, better luck next time GOP. Safe D, Ds at 220.

NY-24: That's a thicc margin for Katko. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 206.

NY-22: Also a pretty good margin for Tenney even though she is bad. Thanks upstate NY. Likely R bordering on Safe, Rs at 207.

NY-19: Delgado is already winning and I don't think the margin is getting any friendlier for Rs. Likely D bordering on Safe, Ds at 221.

NY-18: Same story as the 19th.  Likely D, Ds at 222.

NY-03: I'd be quite surprised if absentees don't pull Suozzi over the finish line. Likely D, Ds at 223.

NY-02: In contrast, this margin seems titanic. Likely R bordering on safe, Rs at 208.

NY-01: Same story as the 2nd but more. Safe R, Rs at 209.

NY-11: Looks like Malliotakis has the margin to win. Get pranked Rose. Likely R, Rs at 210.

Does this seem about right to everyone?

EDIT: Forgot that NYT called NJ-07 already, which posters here take issue with. It seems like Malinowski has a fair margin, but I'm certainly not going to rule out a Cox scenario. Lean/Likely D?

Kean is underperforming Trump’s 2016 numbers across the board in the district. That’s probably not what he wants,

Have faith.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326370009506078722

Riots in major cities -> Weak condemnation by some democrats -> Korean-Americans in LA County shift right

Diamond Bar, CA is where many Korean-American Kpop idols are from.

[LimoLiberal]

California Democrats need to run Asian-American women in these districts in 2022. They risk allowing Kim and Steel to get entrenched by solidifying the Vietnamese, Chinese, and Korean bloc votes without Trump as an anchor.

[LimoLiberal]

Malinowski is doing very poorly districtwide with late vote counts. Essex is only a small portion of the district but even in the small batch of 396 votes counted today, Kean won them by 13%, nearly 50% swing from previous. In Union County Kean won 2653 votes by 26%, about a 40% swing. Seems like it actually might be a bit dire for Malinowski considering the amount of outstanding ballots remaining. Union might have around 20k left, same for Morris. Depends a lot on how many provisional ballots there are in Hunterdon and Somerset I'd imagine, these could let Kean cut into the margin a good chunk for sure.

It feels good to be right, but it doesn't feel good that the D House majority will be even smaller.

[LimoLiberal]

Malinowski is doing very poorly districtwide with late vote counts. Essex is only a small portion of the district but even in the small batch of 396 votes counted today, Kean won them by 13%, nearly 50% swing from previous. In Union County Kean won 2653 votes by 26%, about a 40% swing. Seems like it actually might be a bit dire for Malinowski considering the amount of outstanding ballots remaining. Union might have around 20k left, same for Morris. Depends a lot on how many provisional ballots there are in Hunterdon and Somerset I'd imagine, these could let Kean cut into the margin a good chunk for sure.

It feels good to be right, but it doesn't feel good that the D House majority will be even smaller.

Donald Trump isn't president-elect.

Did I say I was right about everything?

[LimoLiberal]

OH MY

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1326984680411951104?s=21

AND the AP has "Uncalled" the NJ-7 Congressional Race.

LimoLiberal right again.

[LimoLiberal]

OH MY

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1326984680411951104?s=21

AND the AP has "Uncalled" the NJ-7 Congressional Race.

They never called it to begin with you oaf.

Wrong.

[LimoLiberal]

This article has 21,000 outstanding absentees and affidavits in Broome County (Binghamton), where Brindisi leads 51-46 on the initial count. That's more ballots outstanding than I saw reported previously and potentially good news for him.

http://www.wicz.com/story/42905524/broome-county-starts-the-absentee-ballot-count-races-tightening

[LimoLiberal]

NY-22 update

Brindisi currently leads 71-26 in partial count of Madison County (about half of countywide absentees counted). Raw amounts are Brindisi 2149 Tenney 797 Total 3014.

is that good?

It's decent, at this rate he would do 2% worse in the county than 2018 which would translate roughly to a tied race. Cortland County which is apparently complete he's doing 4% worse so Tenney is still favored of course but Brindisi still has a path. I think the race ultimately comes down to whether or not Brindisi can win Oneida county and run up the score in Broome by performing better than he did in 2018 - both of which are plausible outcomes considering partisanship of ballot returns.

The spreadsheet I've been using to track the remaining absentees is this: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14Z5Mxav2J3Z8RucpjNS8XfR7LObsstLNLeRJdtZ4f9g/edit#gid=554593753

It only had 4419 absentees in Cortland County yet their final count had 4776. That's 8% more than reported. The Broome County numbers I posted above would be even more than 8% more than what's on the spreadsheet. A lot of big Ifs here, but if there's 8% more absentees across the district than what's reported on that spreadsheet, that could really help out Brindisi on the margins.