“Doomers” megathread

[LimoLiberal]

NV (UNLV): Biden +4
NV (NYT/Siena): No change
MI (Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +2
NC (Reuters/Ipsos): Biden -2
NC (SurveyUSA): Biden -5
NC (PPP): No change
NC (RMG): Biden -1
AZ (OHPI): Biden -1
FL (FAU): Biden -2
FL (Susquehanna): Biden -8
CA (UC Berkeley): Biden -3
PA (Trafalgar): Biden -3
MT (PPP): Biden +4
IA (RABA): Biden +2

National (Rasmussen): Biden +3
National (Léger): Biden -1
National (IBD/Tipp): Biden -3
National (USC): Biden -1

Of the 18 polls released today that allow comparison with previous releases, Biden has lost ground margin-wise in 11. Just 5 have seen him gain ground. Sure, there are some R-leaning pollsters that might be skewing things. But still, it's not a comfortable trend just 7 days before Election Day.

[LimoLiberal]

Is this your first time following a national election?

Serious question. You don't even seem to know how swing states work. Of course you're gonna see small fluctuations from one poll to another. Biden going down 1 point in a lot of these is well within MOE, and on top of that, many of them still have him over 50.

Trafalgar and Rassmussen are a joke, as well as that one that showed Trump +3 in PA, and don't take my word for it, look at their website. It's a Hannity-sponsored hack firm.

Y'all are gonna look really, really silly after next Tuesday.

Where you here in 2018 when Limo had to get banned from the Congressional Elections board for concern trolling?

No, but I will say, I've noticed a pretty consistent pattern on this site over the last year and a half. Essentially, the same doomers now were predicting the mythical "Trump bump/surge" from Kenosha, boat parades, Covid lockdown fatigue, BLM riots, Nancy Pelosi hair salon scandal, Hunter Biden, and so on. None of it ever materialized.

And I'm talking people like Horus, Beet, and Limo who continue the dooming despite being wrong.

This is just laughably inaccurate as it pertains to me.

I made a poll mocking all the "bumps" Trump was supposed to get.

[LimoLiberal]

It it conceptually even possible to make an argument that Trump has a chance without invoking Trafalgar?

It is really embarrassing how this one trolling firm has upended the narrative or this race in the minds of so many people.

You’re right, of course.  But it still scares me.

They were the most accurate firm in 2016 in the Midwest, and although we have good evidence that pollsters have adjusted their methods and that Biden is doing better with voters in those states, it's hard to take a leap of faith and ignore them for polls that got it wrong four years ago.

[LimoLiberal]

Prediction: Trump will edge out slightly because of a slight depression in turnout due to rain across the country on election day.

^^^ This
You read my mind.

Edit: because people will use this against me, this is a JOKE.

[LimoLiberal]

I regret panicking so hard yesterday. It’s been a good to great morning of polling for Joseph Biden.

[LimoLiberal]

It seems like everything's moving the wrong way right now. Think I'm going to take a break from Atlas until Election Day.

[LimoLiberal]

It seems like everything's moving the wrong way right now. Think I'm going to take a break from Atlas until Election Day.

Based on what?

Gallup approval ratings, economic news, Trump rallies, Biden going to Michigan and Minnesota, reliable GOP pollsters saying Trump is only down 2 in Wisconsin, the general mood of the people, Glenn Greenwald's resignation from the Intercept, some polls showing Biden only up 5-7, R internals that are obviously pro-Trump but could represent the truth as they did in 2016.

[LimoLiberal]

It seems like everything's moving the wrong way right now. Think I'm going to take a break from Atlas until Election Day.

You're 100% trolling now.

Biden up 12 nationally yesterday, two polls out of Florida showing +4 and +5, with Georgia +5 and NC +3.

LOL

This is a safe space for the Doomers. Please leave if you confuse anxiety for trolling.

[LimoLiberal]

And now the tightening in Quinnipiac.

[LimoLiberal]

F**k F**k F**k F**k F**k F**k F**k F**k F**k F**k

The same exact sh*t. The same exact sh*t. The worrying EV numbers that people deflect with a variety of creative excuses. The tightening in the majority of polls but not all, with people latching on to polls that show Clinton/Biden doing great and calling everything that shows the opposite "junk" or trying to unskew it. It's happening all over again.

This country is so f*****.

[LimoLiberal]

Looks like the doomers have the keys to the kingdom for the next few days.

Enjoy!

Bud, nothing would make me happier than you guys coming back in three days and relentlessly mocking us for being wrong. Nothing would please me more than having my reactions tonight being endlessly quoted in different threads for the next year.

[LimoLiberal]

Feel a little better today because I think that Arizona is Biden's to lose.

[LimoLiberal]

It's over for Joe. Look at this last minute Trump surge in approval.



Everybody is ignoring this but Trump is surging.

[LimoLiberal]

Trump's approval rating is surging!!!!

This is 2016 all over again!!!!

[LimoLiberal]

Was feeling good tonight until Civiqs showed a Biden collapse in Wisconsin. That with Trump's newly rising approval ratings has sent me into a panic.

[LimoLiberal]

Please stop, you guys are embarrassing yourselves.

Trump is going to win.

[LimoLiberal]

This is basically a comic relief thread at this point. Gives me fond memories of the 2017 VA gubernatorial election. We'll see if there's any "rain in NOVA" on election day this year.

Comic relief until Trump wins again.

[LimoLiberal]

5 Factors that Will Deliver Trump the Win Despite Everything - A LimoLiberal Analysis

1. “I’m coming home/coming home/tell the world that I’m coming home”

In the vast majority of polling since the spring, Joe Biden has achieved better numbers with WWC voters than Hillary Clinton achieved in the 2016 results. Much of Joe Biden's chances rely on this increased appeal to these voters - "Scranton Joe", etc. Now I do believe Biden will do better than Clinton in some WWC areas of the country - Erie, Scranton, southern Minnesota. Yet I think Biden will actually underperform Clinton in other WWC areas - the counties along with Ohio River in Ohio, northern Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota. I project that WWC voters will break heavily towards Donald Trump in the closing stage of the campaign erasing the majority of gains Biden seemed like he would make. I don't subscribe to the "shy Trump theory", but I do think polls in the Midwest will underestimate Republicans again as they did in 2016 and 2018, and Trump will deliver narrow wins in Wisconsin and Michigan, and possibly Pennsylvania. You'll note that I left out any discussion of white college-educated voters, who polls show have shifted towards Democrats in large numbers. I do believe that in basically every white middle-to-high-income suburb Biden will outperform Clinton. If Biden is matching Clinton in WWC areas on balance and doing better with college-educated whites... how can Trump still win given the thinness of his 2016 margins in the former Blue Wall? That will be explained in the next several factors.

2. #Blexit

Well, not really. Joe Biden will win Black voters by an overwhelming margin, as Democrats have done for the past several decades. Yet Donald Trump will win the largest percentage of Black voters for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988: >12%. This will be integral to his campaigns in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania where Dems rely on Black voters in Milwaukee, Detroit, and Philly to deliver hundreds of thousands of votes. Let me be clear - this improvement will come at the margin. Joe Biden will still win these cities with Stalin-esque percentages, it will just be by less than Hillary, and even less than Obama 2008/12. Look at it like a puzzle; the vast majority of voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania fall into three groups: white voters with a college degree, white voters without a college degree, and Black voters*. No one disputes Biden will improve with college-educated whites, and I posit that Biden will do about the same with their non-college educated counterparts. Thus, Trump will offset his losses with gains among Black voters at a level Republicans haven't seen since Reagan. But Blacks make up a much smaller percentage of the vote than either group of whites in those states, so things still don't add up completely. How do we get to Trump wins in Michigan and Wisconsin?

3. The Forgotten Become Unforgettable
The United States is becoming more diverse by the second. Asians and Hispanics especially have grown greater than the population as a whole leading to more diverse electorates 2000-onwards. Yet 2020 will reverse that trend. I believe the 2020 electorate will be less diverse than the electorate four years ago, a result of a substantial surge in rural, white-working class turnout - those “forgotten” in American politics.

4. Voy a Votar Por Donald Trump

For months, Democrats on Atlas, Twitter, and beyond have scoffed at the idea Trump could do better with Hispanics than his 2016 performance. “But the family separations!” Yet muchos Latinos van a votar por Donald Trump. This will help Trump in Florida the most, but will also contribute to his wins in Georgia, North Carolina, and possibly Nevada.


5. I’ll take Hodgepodge for 1000, Alex

Democrats will see more of their votes tossed out as mail-in ballots, used heavily by Democrats, are disqualified for signature issues, “naked ballot” issues, turned in too late, etc. This will not have a massive effect but will matter on the margin.
The oil comments will hurt Biden on the margins in Pennsylvania and Texas.
3rd party vote will be down from 2016, but there will be a surprising amount of left-wing defection from Biden in some places.
Trump’s approval rating is rising rapidly on 538 and RCP, and he’s clearly consolidating undecided voters. This trend will continue until Election Day.


Final Predictions:
Michigan: Biden +2, Peters +0.2
Wisconsin: Trump +0.5
Pennsylvania: Trump +1
Ohio: Trump +7
Iowa: Trump +7, Ernst +7
Georgia: Trump +0.5, runoffs for both Senate races
North Carolina: Trump +2, Tillis +4
Florida: Trump +1.5
Arizona: Biden +0.1, Kelly +1
Maine: Biden +6, Gideon +1
ME-02: Trump +6
NE-02: Biden +3
Minnesota: Biden +1, Smith +3
New Hampshire: Biden +3, Shaheen +8
Nevada: Biden +1
Texas: Trump +4, Cornyn +6

[LimoLiberal]

Does the fact that Trump keeps going up on the 538 national average not bother anyone else?

[LimoLiberal]

Does the fact that Trump keeps going up on the 538 national average not bother anyone else?

Biden is leading by 8.5

And he was leading by 2 points more 10 days ago.

[LimoLiberal]

The IBD/Tipp poll has Biden +3, the lowest it’s ever been.

[LimoLiberal]

Biden collapsing in Arizona and Pennsylvania, Republicans have won NC according to Michael McDonald. This is a disaster.

[LimoLiberal]

The new Marist state polls have made me the most sure I ever was that Trump is going to win.