538 model & poll tracker thread (user search)
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  538 model & poll tracker thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 538 model & poll tracker thread  (Read 58556 times)
LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« on: June 17, 2020, 09:43:26 PM »
« edited: October 13, 2020, 12:25:58 PM by LimoLiberal »
The Model:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2020, 03:05:11 PM »
Biden's lead in the aggregate fell to "just" 8.9 points today, Trump's best number since June 18th.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #2 on: October 28, 2020, 04:24:19 PM »
« Edited: October 28, 2020, 04:27:52 PM by LimoLiberal »
I'm a bit confused how Biden is only leading by 8.8 in the aggregate after today's polls.

Edit: To add on to this, I think Rasmussen, SurveyMonkey, IBD/Tipp and "Spry Strategies" are really weighing down Biden to the point where he's gone from +9.4 to +8.8 in the past two days.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2020, 11:50:40 AM »
Biden's lead down to 8.6, which is a bit worrying, but we're still waiting on live-callers from Marist, ABC/WaPo, and NBC/WSJ.
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