VA-Gov 2021: Herring for AG after submitting to resident political overlord T-MAC

[LimoLiberal]

9/12/20 Preliminary HOD Ratings Part 1

• These are done under the assumption redistricting is delayed because of the late census.
• The presidential race and gubernatorial race will affect the national and state political environments. For these preliminary ratings, I'm assuming a neutral political environment.
• Democrats hold a 55-45 advantage in the House of Delegates after flipping six seats in 2019.
  Republicans need to flip six seats to retake control or five seats to force a power-sharing agreement.

D-Held Targets

HD-10 (Leesburg, southern Loudoun County into Clarke County): Clinton +4/Northam +9/Kaine +16: Wendy Gooditis (D) flipped this seat by 4 points in 2017 in an upset. She held on by a slightly larger margin in 2019 in a rematch with the former Republican incumbent. This seat is zooming left and Gooditis is the favorite in 2021. However, this is still the most Republican seat that takes in parts of the main NoVA counties and could be targeted heavily.
Likely D

HD-12 (Blacksburg, Pearlsburg): Clinton +2/Northam +8/Kaine +17: Chris Hurst flipped this seat in 2017 after his girlfriend was tragically murdered on live television reporting for the news station they both worked at. Hurst saw his margin narrow from 9 to 7 from 2017 to 2019 but this can be chalked up to lower turnout at his Virginia Tech base in the off-off-year. He’ll be the favorite in 2021 with the governor’s race on the top of the ticket.
Likely D

HD-28 (eastern Stafford County, portions of Fredericksburg): Trump +4/Northam +3/Kaine +12: This district reelected Republican Bob Thomas over Joshua Cole (D) in 2017 by less than 100 votes in an election where incorrectly split precincts might have made the difference. Cole dusted himself off and won by 4 points in 2019 after Thomas was successfully primaried by hard-right Paul Milde (R). This district, linked to DC by I-95, continues to shift left but Cole is sure to face a stiff challenge in 2021.
Lean D

HD-31 (southern Prince William County; Montclair, southern Fauquier County): Clinton +7/Northam +13/Kaine +20: This (poorly) gerrymandered district couples heavily Hispanic areas of Prince William County with conservative areas of Fauquier County. Peruvian-American activist Elizabeth Guzman (D) flipped this seat in 2017 by 10 points against an incumbent Republican but saw her margin halved in 2019 facing DJ Jordan (R) who ran a great campaign. This district leans left but the Fauquier County portion gives Republicans a path to victory. Guzman is also a little left of the district, serving as a co-chair for the Virginia Bernie Sanders campaign in 2020 alongside Lee Carter. If this seat opens up (Guzman is rumored to be running for higher office) and/or DJ Jordan runs again, I could see this race being very competitive.
Lean D

HD-40 (western Fairfax County and northern Prince William County; Clifton, Chantilly, Centerville): Clinton +8/Northam +11/Kaine +19. Army veteran Dan Helmer (D) flipped this soulless sprawl in 2019 from incumbent Tim Hugo (R) who had held on by just a couple hundred votes in 2017. The last Republican holdout in Fairfax County, Hugo fell victim to Northern Virginia’s fast leftward shift in the Trump era. Helmer is the favorite in 2021, especially with Hugo probably running for Lt Gov over his old seat.
Likely D

HD-51 (central PWC; Lake Ridge, Nokesville, Bristow): Clinton +8/Northam +11/Kaine +20: Hala Ayala (D) proved a strong performer, winning reelection by 9 points in 2019 in a rematch against the Republican incumbent she upset in 2017. Ayala is now running for Lt. Gov and is the strong favorite to be the nominee, likely leaving this seat open. Rich Anderson (R) may try a second time for a comeback with a more favorable political environment, but the high likelihood the D nominee for governor wins this district makes any Democrat a favorite.
Likely D

HD-50 (Manassas): Clinton +12/Northam +17/Kaine +27: Prolific tweeter Lee Carter (D-Socialist) upset the Republican Whip by 9 points in 2017 and won reelection by a slightly reduced margin two years later. His outspoken socialism raises the likelihood he’ll face a well-funded challenge; this along with some mild personal scandals move this race into the competitive sphere despite the district's strong Democratic lean.
Likely D

HD-72 (western Henrico County; Glen Allen, Lakeside, Short Pump): Clinton +7/Northam +10/Kaine +20: Schuyler VanValkenburg (D) flipped this open seat in 2017 by 5 points and was reelected by a slightly larger margin in 2019 after redistricting made it slightly more Democratic. VanValkenburg benefits from the Democratic shift of these Richmond suburbs; this is prime Spanberger country. But this area is still open to electing downballot Republicans, seen in State Senator’s Siobhan Dunnavant’s win in 2019. I’m putting it on the board with VanValkenburg clearly favored.
Likely D

HD-73 (western Henrico County; Tuckahoe, Glen Allen, portions of Richmond): Clinton +7/Northam +8/Kaine +20: This district is very similar to HD-72. Debra Rodman (D) flipped this seat in an upset in 2017 before running for State Senate in 2019 (and losing), leaving it open. In 2019, Rodney Willett (D) beat Mary Margaret Kastelberg (R) by 5 points in a highly contested matchup. Willett is the favorite.
Likely D

HD-75 (Black Belt counties; Emporia, Lawrenceville, Franklin): Clinton +10/Northam +5/Kaine +13: One of the only competitive districts where trends do not favor Democrats. Incumbent Roslyn Tyler (D) won by just 2 points against an unheralded opponent in 2019 after winning unopposed two years earlier. The gubernatorial race could drive up Black turnout in this district (especially if a Black Democrat wins the nomination) but I bet this area will still trend right. There’s an argument for Tossup, but until the Republican Party of Virginia shows significant investment in flipping this seat, Lean D is fine.
Lean D

HD-83 (northern Virginia Beach; Bayside, a small portion of Norfolk): Clinton +4/Northam +11/Kaine +17: Nancy Guy (D) flipped this district by just 41 votes in 2019. If Chris Stolle (R) goes for the rematch, this seat could be very competitive. Otherwise, I think Guy should be OK given the district’s left lean.
Likely D

HD-85 (northern Virginia Beach; Kempsville): Clinton +2/Northam +11/Kaine +16: Cheryl Turpin (D) won this seat in an upset in 2017 before stepping down to (unsuccessfully) run for State Senate in 2019. Redistricting shifted this district from Trump +1 to Clinton +2 and Alex Askew (D) was able to hold it for the Dems by 3 points in 2019. Askew is clearly the favorite in this district shifting left quickly.
Likely D

Safe D, but could become competitive:
HD-13 (Danica Roem)
HD-21 (Kelly Fowler)
HD-63 (Lashrecse Aird)
HD-68 (Dawn Adams)
HD-91 (Martha Mugler)
HD-93 (Mike Mullin)

In conclusion, I rate only 12 of the 55 D-held seats competitive. Of those 12, I rate only 3 Lean D, with no Tossups or worse. Just from those seats alone, Republicans face a steep, steep path to retaking control of the chamber, and that’s before we delve into the vulnerable R-held seats.

I’ll finish Part 2 later this week.

[LimoLiberal]

9/12 Preliminary HOD Ratings Part 2

R-Held Targets

HD-26 (Harrisonburg and surrounding Rockingham County): Trump +9/Gillespie +7/Kaine +3: This district encompasses the deep blue college town of Harrisonburg and it's deep red environs. Incumbent Tony Wilt (R) fended off fierce challenges from Brent Finnegan (D) in 2017 and 2019 by 9 and 8 points, respectively. He'll face a competitive race again but he's clearly the favorite.
Likely R

HD-27 (Chesterfield County; Bon Air, Mayfair Estates): Trump +4/Northam +3/Kaine +10: Roxann Robinson (R) held on in 2017 and 2019 by 128 and 189 votes against college professor Larry Barnett (D). She's sure to see face another tight battle in her leftward-trending district. I’m comfortable rating this seat a Tossup.
Tossup

HD-62 (eastern Chesterfield County; Chester, Hopewell): Trump +5/Gillespie +3/Kaine +6: This seat was redrawn in 2018 to be a point bluer and incumbent Riley Ingram (R) retired after winning by 4 points in 2017. Carrie Coyner (R) beat down a steep challenge from Lindsey Dougherty (D) by 10 points in the open seat and seems like a good fit for the district. This district isn't trending left as much as the other suburban seats.
Likely R

HD-66 (central Chesterfield County, Colonial Heights): Clinton +4/Northam +5/Kaine +14: Kirk Cox (R) has held this seat since 1990. Speaker of the House from 2018 to 2020, he cruised to reelection for three decades until the district was redrawn two years ago to and shifted hard to the Democrats. He faced a tough challenge from Sheila Bynum-Coleman (D) in 2019, but prevailed by 4 points on the strength of his connection to the area. He'll face a competitive race in 2021 if he stays in the seat but he's listed as a potential candidate for the gubernatorial race. I'll start it at Lean R with a move to Tossup if it becomes open.
Lean R

HD-81 (southern Chesapeake and Virginia Beach): Trump +8/Northam +5/Kaine +6: Barry Knight (R) won just 52-48 in 2019 as this district went from Trump +20 to Trump +8 in redistricting. His underperformance in 2019 makes me think that the House Democrats will target him more heavily in 2021 as this race went largely unnoticed last year. He’s the favorite for now, but I’m watching closely how this race develops.
Lean R

HD-84 (Virginia Beach; Princess Anne, Nimmo): Trump +5/Northam +5/Kaine +10: Incumbent Glenn Davis (R) won by 3 points in 2018 against an unheralded and underfunded Democratic opponent. In 2019, liberal firebrand Karen Mallard (infamous for illegally tampering with a firearm to make a point about laws against tampering with firearms) raised oodles of money but was only able to narrow the margin to 2. If Davis runs again he’s undoubtedly the favorite, but he’s thrown his name in for the Lt. Gov nomination against former NoVA delegate Tim Hugo (see part 1). If he wins the nomination, leaving the seat open, I’ll move this to Tossup.
Lean R

HD-100 (The Eastern Shore; Accomack and Northampton Counties, portions of Norfolk): Clinton +2/Northam +7/Kaine +10: Rob Bloxom (R) was one of three Rs to hold his Clinton seat in the 2017 wave (by 2 points), and he won against Latino Navy vet Phil Hernandez (D) by the same margin two years later. This race will probably be close again, with several blue precincts in Norfolk ensuring 40%+ for Ds. But Bloxom has fought off challengers in two tough political environments and should be considered the favorite.
Lean R

 
Safe R, but could become competitive:
HD-33
HD-54
HD-82
HD-88
HD-96

I rate 7 of the 45 R-held seats competitive. Of those 7, I rate 2 Likely R, 4 Lean R, and 1 Tossup.

In total, I rate 43 seats Safe D, 9 Likely D, 3 Lean D, 1 Tossup, 4 Lean R, 2 Likely R, and 38 Safe R.

I rate the chamber as a whole Likely D.