2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[LimoLiberal]

Inside Elections' no Tossup ratings. 29 moves towards Democrats and 1 move towards Republicans.

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/10/28/rating-changes-texas-georgia-election-outlook-continues-to-swing-toward-democrats/

Senate races
Alaska (Dan Sullivan, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Georgia (David Perdue, R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up
Georgia (Kelly Loeffler, R): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
House races

Arkansas’ 2nd (French Hill, R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up
Colorado’s 3rd (Open; Scott Tipton, R): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
Georgia’s 6th (Lucy McBath, D): from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
Indiana’s 5th (Open; Susan W. Brooks, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Iowa’s 1st (Abby Finkenauer, D): from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
Iowa’s 2nd (Open; Dave Loebsack, D): from Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
Minnesota’s 1st (Jim Hagedorn, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Missouri’s 2nd (Ann Wagner, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Nebraska’s 2nd (Don Bacon, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
New Jersey’s 2nd (Jeff Van Drew, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
New Jersey’s 3rd (Andy Kim, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic (off the board)
New Jersey’s 7th (Tom Malinowski, D): from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
North Carolina’s 8th (Richard Hudson, R): from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican
North Carolina’s 11th (Vacant; Mark Meadows, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Ohio’s 1st (Steve Chabot, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Pennsylvania’s 17th (Conor Lamb, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic (off the board)
Texas’ 2nd (Daniel Crenshaw, R): from Likely Republican to Solid Republican (off the board)
Texas’ 3rd (Van Taylor, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Texas’ 10th (Michael; McCaul, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Texas’ 24th (Open; Kenny Marchant, R): from Toss-up to Tilt Democratic
Virginia’s 2nd (Elaine Luria, D): from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
Virginia's 5th (Open; Denver Riggleman, R): from Tilt Republican to Toss-up
Washington’s 3rd (Jaime Herrera Beutler, R): from Likely Republican to Lean Republican
Wisconsin’s 3rd (Ron Kind, D): from Likely Democratic to Solid Democratic (off the board)

[LimoLiberal]

This is interesting:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/10/28/1989134/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Live-Digest-10-28

MI-11: While a source familiar with Democratic media buys told us last month that the DCCC had canceled its full reservation for the 11th District and part of its booking for the 8th District, which is also in the Detroit media market, the committee appears to have changed its plans since then for the 11th.

While the D-Trip has spent nothing through Sunday in the 8th, where Democratic incumbent Elisa Slotkin is in strong shape, it spent $955,000 from Oct. 19-25 to aid fellow freshman Rep. Haley Stevens in the 11th. It’s not the only pro-Stevens group that’s been airing ads here, either: House Majority PAC also announced last week that it was spending $200,000 in the 11th against Republican Eric Esshaki, while Independence USA also deploying $1.2 million. On the other side, the Congressional Leadership Fund has expended $2.4 million here so far, though it didn’t spend anything last week.

It’s quite surprising to see this contest get so much spending. This suburban Detroit district backed Donald Trump 50-45 but moved hard to the left two years later, and Stevens won an open seat race 52-45 that cycle. Esshaki also hasn’t seemed like a particularly strong opponent, and the incumbent has enjoyed a huge financial advantage over him. However, while we haven’t seen any polls here, both parties are acting like this race is much more competitive than it looked just weeks ago.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/Zachary_Cohen/status/1321844536054849536

[LimoLiberal]

My predictions...

UT-04: Tossup -> Lean D
TX-24: Tossup -> Lean D (this one is pretty much guaranteed given Wasserman's Texas suburbs fetish)
FL-27: Likely D -> Lean D
TX-06: Likely R -> Lean R
MO-02: Tossup -> Lean D (Wasserman loves Schupp)
NJ-07: Lean D -> Likely D

One of AZ-01, OR-04, IL-17, and WI-03 from Lean D to Tossup

and finally...

MN-07: Tossup -> Lean R