Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer (user search)
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  Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer (search mode)
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Author Topic: Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer  (Read 89886 times)
LimoLiberal
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E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« on: June 20, 2018, 12:25:35 PM »
MULaw poll coming out today -->



And we're gonna get general election matchups!



The poll is being live tweeted on this twitter account: https://twitter.com/MULawPoll
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LimoLiberal
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Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #1 on: August 21, 2018, 12:57:13 PM »
Quote from: 3rd-Term Walker. on August 21, 2018, 12:40:35 PM
Lean -> Likely R at this point unless Marquette shows Evers up in double digits. Wisconsin has always been a Koch-influenced state.
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LimoLiberal
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Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2018, 10:28:28 AM »
A very credible source is telling me Tony Evers will be down by more than 4 points in the Marquette Law School poll today.
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LimoLiberal
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Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #3 on: August 22, 2018, 01:18:18 PM »
Quote from: 3rd-Term Walker. on August 22, 2018, 01:15:37 PM
Can't argue that the Marquette numbers are R-leaning. They even had Hillary up by 6 in their final 2016 Poll. Who knows how much the GOP blowout will be here in November.
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LimoLiberal
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Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #4 on: August 28, 2018, 10:21:36 AM »


Reminder: Suffolk polls have been pretty pro-GOP this cycle (at least relative to the average), Walz +5 in MN, Heller +1 in NV, tied gubernatorial race in Maine.
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LimoLiberal
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Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2018, 12:16:41 PM »
prediction: Walker +4

edit: yep, sample is gop leaning.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2018, 12:24:00 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on September 18, 2018, 12:22:48 PM

It's actually a D+1 sample.  I'm watching the live stream.

I said this because it looked more favorable to the GOP than the long-term party ID numbers they showed in the graph. never mind. Great poll for Evers!
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LimoLiberal
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Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2018, 09:39:00 PM »
They're going to have polled right in the middle of the Kavanaugh bump for the GOP. So I'm guessing Walker +2.
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LimoLiberal
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Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2018, 12:27:27 PM »
Wait Walker might win?
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #9 on: April 02, 2019, 02:59:45 PM »
Quote from: Scottholes 2.0 on April 02, 2019, 02:47:57 PM
I really hope Hagedorn doesn't win. Turnout (while ok) isn't looking as good as last year's SCOTUS race.
Decreased dem enthusiasm is the name of the game.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #10 on: April 02, 2019, 04:37:44 PM »
Quote from: Virginiá on April 02, 2019, 04:27:50 PM
Off-Topic but doesn't $164 million for a high school sound absurdly expensive? Even considerable costs for high schools in Virginia (link) come up at just half that amount.

The three big public high schools in Arlington each had $100 million dollar renovations in the past decade, so $164 million for a new school in a wealthy suburb doesn’t surprise me.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #11 on: April 02, 2019, 08:21:12 PM »
Quote from: #KavanaughForPrison, #ButtigiegForPresident on April 02, 2019, 08:20:24 PM
Quote from: Thunder98 on April 02, 2019, 08:19:30 PM
Neubauer winning Winnebago so far 22% in.



Winnebago is rather consistently slightly to the right of the state.

Huh Neubauer is underperforming Dallet's margin by 8 points in Winnebago. Slightly ominous sign for her, but would still be a narrow win.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #12 on: April 02, 2019, 08:22:16 PM »
Calling this for Hagedorn and I'm not kidding. He's winning Kenosha by 10 points with 1/3 in. Dallet won the county by 14 in 2018.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #13 on: April 02, 2019, 08:23:14 PM »
« Edited: April 02, 2019, 08:28:15 PM by Brittain33 »
deleted
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #14 on: April 02, 2019, 08:26:30 PM »
Quote from: Scottholes 2.0 on April 02, 2019, 08:25:30 PM
Her lead is going to explode once those Dane County numbers start rolling!

She will lose and it won't be close. Losing Winnebago by 1 point with more than half reported. Not doing well enough in MWK, and getting crushed in its suburbs.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #15 on: April 02, 2019, 08:31:32 PM »

Dallet won it by 28 points while winning the state by 11. Bodes horribly for Neubauer.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #16 on: April 02, 2019, 08:38:49 PM »
Quote from: Arch on April 02, 2019, 08:34:25 PM
On Dane county's site, Neubauer is at 81%. That's perfect shape for a comfortable win.

Delusional.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #17 on: April 02, 2019, 08:57:14 PM »
« Edited: April 02, 2019, 08:58:41 PM by Brittain33 »
Quote from: NV less likely to flip than FL on April 02, 2019, 08:54:50 PM
Quote from: redjohn on April 02, 2019, 08:47:11 PM
Quote from: Gravelanche on April 02, 2019, 08:45:13 PM

But now that’s the majority of the county. I’m not sure the rest will be enough to fest vote from elsewhere.

Still, with almost 100% of WOW counties reporting, Dane still having 33% to report is something for Lisa to feel good about.

If most of WOW is in, there's no way that Hagedorn is favored, despite typical Atlas bedwetting. This is closer than expected, and Hagedorn could still pull it off, but he'll need huge numbers from the rurals, and for the remaining Madison vote to be less friendly to Neubauer.

He's getting massive numbers from the Northern WI rurals. And Dane is 85% in. Additional trolling deleted.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #18 on: April 02, 2019, 09:00:55 PM »
Quote from: Politician on April 02, 2019, 08:59:33 PM
Neubauer is winning in Vernon County (Trump +5 WWC county)

Senator Feingold won it in 2016.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #19 on: April 02, 2019, 09:05:16 PM »
« Edited: April 02, 2019, 09:06:13 PM by Brittain33 »
Quote from: Gass3268 on April 02, 2019, 09:03:23 PM
Neubauer gained on Evers margin in St. Criox.

She's not doing terribly in W/SW WI, however I still believe she is gonna lose however.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #20 on: April 02, 2019, 09:18:45 PM »
Hmmm. An apparent Neubauer over-performance in the driftless area has be reconsidering my call.
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