2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1014119502588579840

Was D+7 in February.

[LimoLiberal]

Marist polled OH and DeWine is up by 4 and Trump approvals in OH and FL are at 51 percent. And the Dems are on defense in Senate

What are you talking about, dude?

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/poll-hub-arizona-florida-ohio-election-2018/

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/Scotttaylorva/status/1014898016682172417

Scott Taylor not in any danger, according to DCCC poll.

[LimoLiberal]

CA-49 - https://mikelevin.org/democrat-mike-levin-has-initial-edge-in-49th-congressional-district-poll/

Levin internal:

Levin (D) - 44
Harkey (R) - 41

A lead inside the margin of error in a district Clinton won by 8 points and many national forecasters have as "Lean D" - found in a democratic internal.

[LimoLiberal]

Yikes in CA-25, meh in MN-03, and pretty good in NJ-03.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1016763181870411776

[LimoLiberal]

Lol we don't need to analyze crosstab results from Emerson polls. Just look at the topline, put it into the average, and move on. It's a crappy poll.

[LimoLiberal]

NC-09 (Civitas): McCready +7

https://twitter.com/jimmorrill/status/1016802651705659392

Link?
Good For Democrats If True.

[LimoLiberal]

Yet nobody can actually find a link to this poll... all we have is a post by Gass.

[LimoLiberal]

Morning Consult went from D+8 to D+5
YouGov went from D+4 to D+4
Rasmussen went from D+6 to D+8

[LimoLiberal]

I just don't understand why they are so confident about TX-23. It's switched hands 4 times in the last 12 years.

[LimoLiberal]

Texan GOP congressmen are using some classic Atlas logic:

could you link this article, please?

[LimoLiberal]

The weekly trackers.


Reuters/Ipsos: D+15 to D+10
Morning Consult: D+5 to D+8
Yougov: D+4 to D+8
Rasmussen: D+8 to D+5

[LimoLiberal]

Wow. Diane Harkey (R) internal in CA-49 shows her leading Mike Levin by 3 points.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/internal-poll-harkey-has-slight-lead-over-levin-in-californias-49th-district

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Levin (D) - 43
Harkey (R) - 46

/trolling deleted

[LimoLiberal]

Of all the competitive seats in California, CA-49 was last on my list to see a Republican leading in a poll.

[LimoLiberal]

LL posted a Harkey internal showing her up three points and called it disasterous for Democrats, for those who don’t want to unignore him and see.

Thank you! I'm guessing because it's 3.5 months out and the Republican is within the margin of error in their own internals, he's saying the Democrats are sh**t out of luck this year?

CA-49 is supposed to be one of the easiest seats for Ds to pickup this year. Even if this internal was literally the best case scenario for Harkey, it shouldn't be a Republican lead. Clinton +9 open seat with a well funded Democratic opponent.

[LimoLiberal]

And by the way, we had a CA-49 poll last week that had Levin up three points. Its a toss up.

Well that's news to the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball.

[LimoLiberal]

Well...

Reuters Ipsos 7/15-19

Democrats - 41 (-5)
Republicans - 37 (+4)

compared to 7/10-14 poll

[LimoLiberal]

Reuters Ipsos 7/15-19

Democrats - 41 (-5)
Republicans - 37 (+4)

compared to 7/10-14 poll

Another huge swing from Ipsos for absolutely no reason. More reason to ignore online trackers.

Edit: Although I'm not sure where said results are.

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM1212Y17/filters/PD1:1

I'm just transcribing it from the 538 aggregate...

[LimoLiberal]

I tried looking everywhere for this poll and I couldn't find it. This is the best I could find and this is D+9:

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2018-07/2018_reuters_tracking_-_core_political_07_18_2018.pdf

Again, I'm just taking it off the 538 website: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

The link they used for the poll is the same link superbudgie had above, so maybe there was just an input error.

[LimoLiberal]

NBC/WSJ high quality live-caller poll taken partially after the Helsinki summit

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1021138283412287488

Last poll was in early June.

Democrats - 49 (-1)
Republicans - 43 (+3)

[LimoLiberal]

So, from what I gather, it has been a good couple of polling weeks for the Democrats. Lots of good internals being released.

[LimoLiberal]

So, from what I gather, it has been a good couple of polling weeks for the Democrats. Lots of good internals being released.

That explains why you weren’t posting.

Nah, I was without technology for 3 weeks out of the country.

[LimoLiberal]

Two democratic internals today:

NV-04 (from mid-July): https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/after-hardys-poll-shows-dead-heat-horsford-releases-poll-showing-hes-10-points-ahead

Horsford (D) - 42
Hardy (R) - 32

This is in response to an internal from Hardy showing a tied (41-41) race.

KS-03 (from mid-August): http://www.rollcall.com/news/democratic-poll-tight-race-in-kansas-3rd-district

Davids (D) - 46
Yoder (R, i) - 43

[LimoLiberal]

Internal polls over late June, July, and August (so far)

The name next to each result is the candidate that's leading.

(D)
Cisneros 53-42 (CA-39)
Walters 45-44 (CA-45)
Levin 49-46 (CA-49)
Hunter 42-51 (CA-50)
Nunes 43-48 (CA-22)
Crow 47-45 (CO-06)
Curbelo 41-48 (FL-26)
Bordeaux 46-44 (GA-07)
Axne 45-41 (IA-03)
Davids 46-43 (KS-03)
Golden 51-49 (RCV) (ME-02)
Horsford 42-32 (NV-04)
Malinowski 47-45 (NJ-07)
Delgado 49-42 (NY-19)
Balter 47-43 (NY-24)
Johnson 43-33 (SD-AL)
Lynne-Sanchez 39-48 (TX-06)
Roy 27-33 (TX-21)
Sessions 45-47 (TX-32)

(R)
Harkey 46-43 (CA-49)
Carbajal 47-46 (CA-24)
TIE 41-41 (NV-04)
McCann 39-36 (NJ-05)
Johnson 54-33 (SD-AL)

[LimoLiberal]

NY-25: Siena, Aug. 15-16, 500 likely voters

Joe Morelle (D) 55
James Maxwell (R) 31

Trump approval: 34/57

Cook has this race at Likely D LMAO

Republicans are more likely to win NY-25 than Democrats are to win WA-03. - Charlie Cook, 2 weeks ago

That's pretty embarrassing...