OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[LimoLiberal]

JMC poll:

Balderson (R) 46%
O'Connor (R) 35%

Also in the district:

Brown 42%
Renacci 36%

DeWine 42%
Cordray 41%

Trump approval: 54/40

Hard to believe that O’Connor would underperform by so much, but if this poll is accurate, it’s great for Cordray as well, since he’s almost certainly ahead statewide if he’s only down 1 in OH-12.

Well, Cordray has always ran far ahead of Generic D in the Columbus Metro. Considering Clinton's Delaware margins, it isn't totally out of the picture that he ties/wins the county while still losing statewide.

The 2010 AG race where he lost to Dewine by a point indicates that he lost the current OH-12: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=39&year=2010&f=0&off=9&elect=0

Of course, East Ohio has trended significantly away from the Democratic brand in general while the suburbs of Cincinatti and Columbus have shifted left.

[LimoLiberal]

Hmm. O'Connor has the facebook enthusiasm, surprisingly, considering Balderson is an established state senator. 4.3K likes to Balderson's 1.6K. Moving this race from Safe R to Likely R in my ratings.

[LimoLiberal]

DCCC going in.

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1019961173079453696

[LimoLiberal]

Hmm. O'Connor has the facebook enthusiasm, surprisingly, considering Balderson is an established state senator. 4.3K likes to Balderson's 1.6K. Moving this race from Safe R to Likely R in my ratings.

In what way was this ever Safe R?

Balderson led early polls by double-digits.... I consider a 10+ point margin Safe R. 7-10 point margin is more Likely R.

[LimoLiberal]

Moving this from Likely R to Lean R. Feels like an upset in the making. Anybody have some more early voting data to chew on?

[LimoLiberal]

Guys, we don't get actual election results until the night of August 7th. The numbers just show who is voting, not who they are voting for. The vast majority of Democrats are probably voting for O'Connor, the vast majority of Republicans for Balderson, and the Republican and Democrat combined take up most of the votes from Others. It's impossible to gauge what level of support the third party candidates are getting. Just because one is an Other does not signify that they support a third party candidate.

[LimoLiberal]

A boon for Troy Balderson in a district where the average of two independent polls indicate the president is popular.

Monmouth 6/11/18

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_oh_061118/

Approval split of 48-47

JMC Analytics 6/17/18

http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Ohio-12-Executive-Summary.pdf

Approval split of 54-40

[LimoLiberal]

There are literally only 5000 votes cast rn. There were over 200k in PA-18. Can we not get our panties in a wad over these turnout stats yet?

Stop concern trolling!11!!1!