State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread (user search)
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  State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread  (Read 178598 times)
LimoLiberal
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Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #75 on: February 06, 2018, 09:42:50 PM »
BTW, Scagg's opponent won the last dump of votes 621-529. Scaggs can only narrowly lose the next 14 precincts.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #76 on: February 06, 2018, 09:50:21 PM »
Final margin in HD-39 is 64-36 R. Trump won here 71-24, marking a Democratic over-performance of 19 points compared to 2016 and an under-performance of 6 points compared to 2012.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #77 on: February 06, 2018, 10:08:34 PM »
This billboard is our last hope: https://twitter.com/JimScaggsMO/status/948595593928159233
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #78 on: February 06, 2018, 10:11:47 PM »

lol nice
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #79 on: February 06, 2018, 10:18:41 PM »
Looks like Dinkin won, yeah. https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/961075461152542720

https://twitter.com/CanadianKansan/status/961076047985958912

Using those numbers, Scaggs would lose 2250-2168. Or 51-49. But it says the numbers for Wayne are partials.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #80 on: February 06, 2018, 10:21:34 PM »
Washington County really sucked for Scaggs. If he had kept it closer he could've won. He lost 63-37.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #81 on: February 06, 2018, 10:25:56 PM »
That's gotta be the biggest 2016 to 2017/2018 county shift right? Scaggs won Iron county 62-38 while Clinton lost it 74-22. 76 point shift to the left.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #82 on: February 06, 2018, 10:29:31 PM »
Quote from: Solid4096 on February 06, 2018, 10:28:12 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on February 06, 2018, 10:25:56 PM
That's gotta be the biggest 2016 to 2017/2018 county shift right? Scaggs won Iron county 62-38 while Clinton lost it 74-22. 76 point shift to the left.

Woah, I thought Iron County was gone for the Democrats after it was among the top 10 most R swinging Counties from 2012-2016.

There were 2 other Missouri Counties in that top 10: Reynolds (which directly borders Iron) and Clark (which is the Most North East County in the entire state).

Scaggs lost Reynolds by 8 points. It was a Trump +61 county in 2016.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #83 on: February 06, 2018, 10:48:43 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on February 06, 2018, 10:45:04 PM
BTW, the SoS Finally updated.

State Representative - District 144 - unexpired           44 of 44 Precincts Reported
Chris Dinkins   Republican           2,998   52.624%
Jim Scaggs   Democratic   2,699   47.376%
    Total Votes:   5,697

Valiant performance. Washington and Wayne county killed him in the end

R wins by 5 here, while Trump won it 78-19. This was a democratic over-performance of 54 points compared to 2016, and 20 point shift from 2012.

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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #84 on: February 06, 2018, 10:51:01 PM »
Mmmmmm... Delicious

https://twitter.com/sdieckhaus/status/961081421585674240

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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #85 on: February 06, 2018, 10:59:27 PM »
My man already on the spin: https://twitter.com/ScottPresler/status/961085630758490112

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Bonus cringe picture:
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #86 on: February 06, 2018, 11:33:08 PM »
Little bit unnerving that dailykos wiped the early January Georgia special elections from their tracker. Remember them? GOP easily held on to a Clinton seat and got 60%+ in a seat that Trump barely won? Some very selective memories.

Anyways, good night all. I'll see y'all on the 13th for what I hope will be a Good result in Florida.

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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #87 on: February 11, 2018, 12:41:36 PM »
https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/962743138786914305

Looks like Good is favored to win in FL HD-72 now.

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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #88 on: February 11, 2018, 10:21:45 PM »
The candidate in the 59-34 Trump seat Minnesota special election tomorrow seems optimistic: https://twitter.com/melissa23b/status/962887634325594112
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #89 on: February 12, 2018, 08:55:32 PM »
« Edited: February 12, 2018, 09:04:39 PM by Brittain33 »
Scott Pressler is tweeting about these so I really hope the Republicans lose.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #90 on: February 12, 2018, 09:26:11 PM »
Bigham will win easily. All 5 precincts reporting are Trump precincts and she's winning 4 of them.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #91 on: February 12, 2018, 09:28:18 PM »
Quote from: Ebsy on February 12, 2018, 09:27:40 PM
As usual limoliberal is just copying the analysis other people have already done.

If you're talking about reddit at r/bluemidterm2018, that's my account. Lol.
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LimoLiberal
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #92 on: February 12, 2018, 09:38:52 PM »
Bigham now out performing Clinton in 9/11 precincts. (I do math fast).
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #93 on: February 12, 2018, 09:54:13 PM »
Okay, Hillary Clinton is currently winning the precincts reporting 51-49, I just calculated. Bigham is winning 52.2-45.4. So Not as big of a Dem over performance as I was assuming, but definitely there. There might be some turnout problems for Bigham just glancing over reported numbers.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #94 on: February 12, 2018, 10:05:32 PM »

Bruh three new precincts just came in and she's out performing Clinton in margin by an average of 15 points in them.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
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Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #95 on: February 12, 2018, 10:10:30 PM »
Here's Washington live county results, where McNamara's home base of Hasting is. If Bigham is winning here, she's golden:
https://services.co.dakota.mn.us/electionresults/#at/378ec023-df38-432c-8182-3870af943df9/ar/2/
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #96 on: February 12, 2018, 10:16:25 PM »
McNamara has to make up 1000 votes from 5 precincts in Hastings. Yep, it's over.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #97 on: February 12, 2018, 10:23:10 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on February 12, 2018, 10:16:25 PM
McNamara has to make up 1000 votes from 5 precincts in Hastings. Yep, it's over.


Well, he did just make up more than 100 votes from Hastings W-4 P-1. And swung the margin 8 points republican from 2016. But probably is still over.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #98 on: February 12, 2018, 10:38:02 PM »
It's going to be pretty close in SD-54, even though Bigham will still prevail. Two precincts left, one that was 60% Trump and one that was 52%.
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LimoLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,535


Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
« Reply #99 on: February 12, 2018, 10:49:01 PM »
Lookin' like a seven and four point under performance for Rs compared to 2016 results in HD-23b and SD-54, respectively. Both are under performances compared to 2012. I'm interested into what the results would be if this election was on a Tuesday instead.
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