Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[LimoLiberal]

What were the statewide percentages of democratic and republican ballots cast in 2014 and 2010?

[LimoLiberal]

Fun fact: counties comprising 93% of GA's population swung Democratic in the primary compared to 2014 (measured by my primary swing map here). As relatively bad as some of that blue might look (around one-third of all counties), it's basically a selection of the least-populated areas. While additional measurements will be useful (such as which counties saw raw increase in Dem vote as opposed to a smaller drop-off compared to GOP), it's pretty astonishing.

While we could be wrong about it, Bacon King and I were discussing the southern areas last night (in particular SWGA) and - outside the counties that are obvious anomalies due to local conditions that led to wildly different primary outcomes - how it's definitely possible there'll be no significant majority-black territory left south of the Fall Line in 10 years' time. Mainly, because a huge chunk of young black residents are leaving for more urban areas and older black residents having life expectancy that is basically a decade shorter than white residents is converting majority-black areas into majority-white ones in just a few years. More granular analysis is needed, though. What's obvious, however, is the area as a whole is evaporating population-wise by the day.

Voila (same as my pre-Election Night maps, but complete and with all votes*)



*Dekalb and Mitchell weren't fully reporting when I started making this

That would obviously have substantial VRA implications for Sanford Bishop, I imagine. What does rural Hispanic growth in GA look like?

It's a common misconception, but Bishop's district actually isn't a VRA-required district in the here and now: it was designed primarily to be a 49.5% BVAP vote-sink so that the Jim Marshalls of the world couldn't break through and win 2 or more districts in the southern half of the state. Nevertheless, it could definitely impact his future, as if the area is watered down enough for Republicans by 2021 and they still have control, they'll cut it in half and deal with having 2 55% GOP districts in the area or whatever (which'll be far less likely to elect Blue Dogs than they would have been a decade earlier).

Hmmm. That still seems a little dangerous.

[LimoLiberal]

So this is interesting - and not necessarily the result (at least in distribution) you'd expect based on media framing...

The population taking the Dem ballot in North GA must be down to the committed liberals now?

Yeah, my guess is that many Democrats take a Republican ballot in Northern Georgia to have greater influence on who will represent them because of the one party nature of the region. And those who take them are more likely to be moderate/conservative democrats, leaving only the most liberal voters to take a democratic ballot. This theory could also work in the black belt, where many counties are democratic-dominated so moderate Republicans take a democratic ballot. Or it could be because there are still some blue dog/conservadems in the region. Idk.

[LimoLiberal]

Um.... holy sh*t

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/20/us/politics/trump-endorsement-kemp.html

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[LimoLiberal]

Stacey Abrams winning would immediately vault her into contention for 2024/2028.