Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

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Netanyahu got the mandate, thanks to pathetic Sa'ar.

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Netanyahu got the mandate, thanks to pathetic Sa'ar.

Can he even form a government with that though?

Probably not, but he'll have 28 days to convince Sa'ar and Bennet to join a Likud-Kahanist-Ra'am government.

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Bennett apparently willing to sit in a government backed by Ra'am:

https://www.jpost.com/israel-elections/saar-rejects-proposal-to-let-netanyahu-form-temporary-govt-664493

Ra'am would also be enough to give a Lapid-Bennet-Sa'ar government a majority.

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A pretty grand trick by Lapid and Sa'ar. Likud made a deal with Yamina and thought they won the vote for the Knesset Committee because Ra'am will abstain, but following a meeting with Lapid Ra'am came in last moment to oppose the Likud suggestion and support Lapid's (with Yamina supporting the former and abstaining from the latter).

Lapid has certainly been proving himself.

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It seems there is going to be a dispute between Lapid and Bennett who ought to get the mandate from the president to form the government (partially symbolic as the rotation government allows both to form one and be first\second, partially substantial as there's fear Bennett might still try to form some right-wing government).
Meanwhile, Meretz and Labour activists (with their complete misunderstanding of politics) are starting an online campaign to get major ministries in said government. Claiming that as their combined strength equals that of Sa'ar and Bennett they ought to get the same power. Well, that it is of course ridiculous because we all know they can't be allowed to appear as if they somehow thwarted the anti-Bibi government. 

It's still important to put pressure from the left imo. The left exists and it can't be totally ignored like that- the current government suggestion is ridiculous. Obviously Bennet and Sa'ar's 13 will be worth more than the left's 13, but the left's 13 should be worth something. I'd say something along the line of Home and Education Ministries as well as two or three more ministries is fair.

[America Needs R'hllor]

It seems there is going to be a dispute between Lapid and Bennett who ought to get the mandate from the president to form the government (partially symbolic as the rotation government allows both to form one and be first\second, partially substantial as there's fear Bennett might still try to form some right-wing government).
Meanwhile, Meretz and Labour activists (with their complete misunderstanding of politics) are starting an online campaign to get major ministries in said government. Claiming that as their combined strength equals that of Sa'ar and Bennett they ought to get the same power. Well, that it is of course ridiculous because we all know they can't be allowed to appear as if they somehow thwarted the anti-Bibi government. 

It's still important to put pressure from the left imo. The left exists and it can't be totally ignored like that- the current government suggestion is ridiculous. Obviously Bennet and Sa'ar's 13 will be worth more than the left's 13, but the left's 13 should be worth something. I'd say something along the line of Home and Education Ministries as well as two or three more ministries is fair.

They have no way to put the squeeze here. Home office for Michaeli, and Economy for Horowitz is the most, maybe two junior portfolios for Zandberg and Bar Lev

That would be reasonable, but in the current state Shaked vetoed Home for Michaeli because it's "ideological". I know the religious zionists think they're superior human beings, but there's no way Labour and Meretz should agree to getting absolutely nothing out of this. I'd say the reasonable thinkg would be 3 Ministries (including Home) for Labour and 2 (one like Economy or Health and the other a junior position) for Meretz.

[America Needs R'hllor]

It seems there is going to be a dispute between Lapid and Bennett who ought to get the mandate from the president to form the government (partially symbolic as the rotation government allows both to form one and be first\second, partially substantial as there's fear Bennett might still try to form some right-wing government).
Meanwhile, Meretz and Labour activists (with their complete misunderstanding of politics) are starting an online campaign to get major ministries in said government. Claiming that as their combined strength equals that of Sa'ar and Bennett they ought to get the same power. Well, that it is of course ridiculous because we all know they can't be allowed to appear as if they somehow thwarted the anti-Bibi government. 

It's still important to put pressure from the left imo. The left exists and it can't be totally ignored like that- the current government suggestion is ridiculous. Obviously Bennet and Sa'ar's 13 will be worth more than the left's 13, but the left's 13 should be worth something. I'd say something along the line of Home and Education Ministries as well as two or three more ministries is fair.

They have no way to put the squeeze here. Home office for Michaeli, and Economy for Horowitz is the most, maybe two junior portfolios for Zandberg and Bar Lev

That would be reasonable, but in the current state Shaked vetoed Home for Michaeli because it's "ideological". I know the religious zionists think they're superior human beings, but there's no way Labour and Meretz should agree to getting absolutely nothing out of this. I'd say the reasonable thinkg would be 3 Ministries (including Home) for Labour and 2 (one like Economy or Health and the other a junior position) for Meretz.

That’s 5 ministries for 13 MKs, considering the new government would be at most 24 members big, and YA have to allocate a lot to their people that’s a bit out of order.
Zandberg can take Social Equality or somewhere else she won’t do damage in. Most of Labour’s bench are rookies with zero political experience. Give them house committees over ministries.

That's fair. The problem is that the current negotiating position of the right isn't fair. Af least one major ministry like Home should be non negotiable.

[America Needs R'hllor]

It seems there is going to be a dispute between Lapid and Bennett who ought to get the mandate from the president to form the government (partially symbolic as the rotation government allows both to form one and be first\second, partially substantial as there's fear Bennett might still try to form some right-wing government).
Meanwhile, Meretz and Labour activists (with their complete misunderstanding of politics) are starting an online campaign to get major ministries in said government. Claiming that as their combined strength equals that of Sa'ar and Bennett they ought to get the same power. Well, that it is of course ridiculous because we all know they can't be allowed to appear as if they somehow thwarted the anti-Bibi government. 

It's still important to put pressure from the left imo. The left exists and it can't be totally ignored like that- the current government suggestion is ridiculous. Obviously Bennet and Sa'ar's 13 will be worth more than the left's 13, but the left's 13 should be worth something. I'd say something along the line of Home and Education Ministries as well as two or three more ministries is fair.

They have no way to put the squeeze here. Home office for Michaeli, and Economy for Horowitz is the most, maybe two junior portfolios for Zandberg and Bar Lev

That would be reasonable, but in the current state Shaked vetoed Home for Michaeli because it's "ideological". I know the religious zionists think they're superior human beings, but there's no way Labour and Meretz should agree to getting absolutely nothing out of this. I'd say the reasonable thinkg would be 3 Ministries (including Home) for Labour and 2 (one like Economy or Health and the other a junior position) for Meretz.

That’s 5 ministries for 13 MKs, considering the new government would be at most 24 members big, and YA have to allocate a lot to their people that’s a bit out of order.
Zandberg can take Social Equality or somewhere else she won’t do damage in. Most of Labour’s bench are rookies with zero political experience. Give them house committees over ministries.

That's fair. The problem is that the current negotiating position of the right isn't fair. Af least one major ministry like Home should be non negotiable.

It would be prudent to bloc together and demand one top portfolio (not sure the home office is the one they'd want) and other junior ministries. Though knowing Meretz they would rather negotiate separately and incompently.

It is actually quite a pickle. we have 6 parties roughly the same size and slightly bigger YA. and as YB aren't counted with the right bloc this time it means again some problem in manning offices to have equal weight.

Gantz and Liberman will both demand 2 ministries each with each getting a senior one. YA have a lot of people waiting on the side line for a ministry. It would see that the left could either get 1 big one and 2 very small ones or just small ones. But as I don't see Zandberg backing down on getting a ministry it would be difficult to appease everyone here. Just to show you that the left isn't that different from the right when it comes to their egos.

It is pretty ridiculous that YB is counted with the left. Seems to me like a mistake in framing.

[America Needs R'hllor]

It seems there is going to be a dispute between Lapid and Bennett who ought to get the mandate from the president to form the government (partially symbolic as the rotation government allows both to form one and be first\second, partially substantial as there's fear Bennett might still try to form some right-wing government).
Meanwhile, Meretz and Labour activists (with their complete misunderstanding of politics) are starting an online campaign to get major ministries in said government. Claiming that as their combined strength equals that of Sa'ar and Bennett they ought to get the same power. Well, that it is of course ridiculous because we all know they can't be allowed to appear as if they somehow thwarted the anti-Bibi government. 

It's still important to put pressure from the left imo. The left exists and it can't be totally ignored like that- the current government suggestion is ridiculous. Obviously Bennet and Sa'ar's 13 will be worth more than the left's 13, but the left's 13 should be worth something. I'd say something along the line of Home and Education Ministries as well as two or three more ministries is fair.

They have no way to put the squeeze here. Home office for Michaeli, and Economy for Horowitz is the most, maybe two junior portfolios for Zandberg and Bar Lev

That would be reasonable, but in the current state Shaked vetoed Home for Michaeli because it's "ideological". I know the religious zionists think they're superior human beings, but there's no way Labour and Meretz should agree to getting absolutely nothing out of this. I'd say the reasonable thinkg would be 3 Ministries (including Home) for Labour and 2 (one like Economy or Health and the other a junior position) for Meretz.

That’s 5 ministries for 13 MKs, considering the new government would be at most 24 members big, and YA have to allocate a lot to their people that’s a bit out of order.
Zandberg can take Social Equality or somewhere else she won’t do damage in. Most of Labour’s bench are rookies with zero political experience. Give them house committees over ministries.

That's fair. The problem is that the current negotiating position of the right isn't fair. Af least one major ministry like Home should be non negotiable.

It would be prudent to bloc together and demand one top portfolio (not sure the home office is the one they'd want) and other junior ministries. Though knowing Meretz they would rather negotiate separately and incompently.

It is actually quite a pickle. we have 6 parties roughly the same size and slightly bigger YA. and as YB aren't counted with the right bloc this time it means again some problem in manning offices to have equal weight.

Gantz and Liberman will both demand 2 ministries each with each getting a senior one. YA have a lot of people waiting on the side line for a ministry. It would see that the left could either get 1 big one and 2 very small ones or just small ones. But as I don't see Zandberg backing down on getting a ministry it would be difficult to appease everyone here. Just to show you that the left isn't that different from the right when it comes to their egos.

It is pretty ridiculous that YB is counted with the left. Seems to me like a mistake in framing.

Well, they recommended Lapid, and unless Lieberman is willing to tie his faith with Bennett who would be able to sack him at any moment that's the ways the ministries will be divided.

I think Bennet and Lapid can take PM and foreign office and rotate between them. Gantz remains at Defence, Lieberman can take the treasury, Sa'ar Justice, Shaked Home Office, Michaeli Economy, Horowitz Transporation, and the rest could be divided on bloc lines. Immigration will be given to Tamana-Shata. Welfare to Shasha-Bitton. Barbibai will probably stay as chairman of the defence committee but other YA seniors will get portfolios. Bar Lev might be dumb enough to take interior security.

I'm happy as long as Shaked is away from Justice and Zandberg is away from an economic office.

I would personally be very unhappy with Home staying at the right religious hands.

@KaiserDave- Rivlin isn't very friendly to Netanyahu. He'd have given Lapid the mandate if he had less recommendations, so I don't think it's a great worry.

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TEXT TEXT TEXT TEXT jews don't have the right to self determination TEXT TEXT TEXT TEXT

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https://twitter.com/EylonALevy/status/1389181672709574659
My oh my how the tables turn.

Hopefully Lapid can be the King David to Bennet's Saul!

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Likud have presented before the Knesset Committee a whole bunch of radical right-wing wishlist laws such as weakining the judiciary, legalizing the settlements and death sentence to terrorists that they refused to do in over a decade in office (as well as an attempted coup against Kahol Lavan- laws to abolish the coalition agreement with them). Right-wingers in Yamina, New Hope and Yisrael Beiteinu are supporting many of these laws, the settlement legalization for example has been fast-tracked and will go to a full vote tomorrow.

This looks to me like Bibi trying to literally burn down the house before he leaves (there's a reason he never did any of these things) and put a wrench in the change bloc.

Idk if this is all a spin or if this psychopathic wishlist can actually become law.

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The Bibi bloc recommends no one. The mandate will 100% move to Lapid now for 28 days, again Bibi’s ego screwed him over.
They’re working really hard on Shakes and tearing Yamina from the inside. That Medusa might go along with it.

It looks to me now that Bennet is really close to losing everything. I could see all of Shaked, Shikli, Silman and Kara leaving him and just Orbach and Kahana remaining loyal. If that happens I wonder if he still takes the PM spot with a 3 seat party not even named Yamina or if it's election #5.

I guess we could see a coalition of the 60 who recommended Lapid plus Balad abstaining, but that'd be very close and I doubt Sa'ar will go along.

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The Bibi bloc recommends no one. The mandate will 100% move to Lapid now for 28 days, again Bibi’s ego screwed him over.
They’re working really hard on Shakes and tearing Yamina from the inside. That Medusa might go along with it.

It looks to me now that Bennet is really close to losing everything. I could see all of Shaked, Shikli, Silman and Kara leaving him and just Orbach and Kahana remaining loyal. If that happens I wonder if he still takes the PM spot with a 3 seat party not even named Yamina or if it's election #5.

I guess we could see a coalition of the 60 who recommended Lapid plus Balad abstaining, but that'd be very close and I doubt Sa'ar will go along.

What a git. You own the party and have no primaries. If you can get the six behind you to back you how can you form a government.
If it’s just him and Saar it’s either Saar takes the lead or no rotation. He can’t be PM with a faction of 3, it would look pathetic.

The funny thing is everyone could see Shakes plotting from behind miles away. Gantz might make a revival in round 5 before he becomes PM in November.

Anyway Bibi now failed to form a government thrice. Livni, Peres, Ben Gurion, and Rosen all failed once.

Who's Rosen?

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This might be the wrong place to ask this question but I'll go: given all the swings and the PR system, who's the longest serving member of the Knesset? would it be Netanyahu?

I'm guessing there's no longevity in office like the UK where you had Kenneth Clarke from 1970 until recently or Don Young who's been hanging around the House since 1973.

Used to be Amir Peretz. Now I THINK it's Tzahi Hanegbi and Netanyahu tied, or something?

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Triple meeting between Lapid, Saar, Bennett. Seems everything is practically agreed between them now they need to get all the rest to line up. YB issued a chunky (but very reasonable) set of demands today. Bennett is meeting with Michaeli ATM, and her partner (the comedian Lior Schlein) is indicating she was offered the Agriculture Ministry (this might be a joke idk). That won't do. Meretz demand education but it seems they won't get it and may be offered Health.
Part for Gantz no one can really afford to say no so very little wriggle room. Though Lapid would be wise to give Michaeli something bigger if he doesn't want her to create mini-crises all the time.

I'm pretty sure Agriculture is a joke. But it seems she's being offered Internal Security, which I hope she refuses because it's a poisoned role. Shaked should be Internal Security.

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After meeting with Gantz, Bennett and Lapid are now meeting with Horowitz. Lieberman should be last. It seems, and don’t kill me if it doesn’t happen, that we’ll have an announcement before Shabbat.

Wildcard Lieberman is last

Not looking like before Shabbat rn, since the news seems to have stopped. But the sides say next week apparently. Is there really anything that can stop this from happening?

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After meeting with Gantz, Bennett and Lapid are now meeting with Horowitz. Lieberman should be last. It seems, and don’t kill me if it doesn’t happen, that we’ll have an announcement before Shabbat.

Wildcard Lieberman is last

Not looking like before Shabbat rn, since the news seems to have stopped. But the sides say next week apparently. Is there really anything that can stop this from happening?

Everything is always possible. As long as Bennett, Saar, and Gantz check on their caucuses daily to see everyone’s in line (especially the major suspect of each). Ra’am play ball. And Labour and Meretz conventions don’t pull any stunts to try and squeeze more. Oh and Liebereman not changing his mind until the vote.

So yeah...there’s quite a lot that could still happen.

For the major suspects, it's of course mostly Yamina- I only view Kahana and Orbach as 100% loyal to Bennet, Silman and Kara displayed pretty strong loyalty though. So it's probably Shaked as the main one (other than Chikli).
In New Hope, Sa'ar, Biton, Elkin and Begin are all pragmatists, so it's probably Haskel as the most likely defector, followed by Hendel (lol).
I doubt KL will break up after holding together through so many things. The only one I can see is maybe Trooper?

Also, as predicted, Lapid and Bennet met Lieberman now.

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After meeting with Gantz, Bennett and Lapid are now meeting with Horowitz. Lieberman should be last. It seems, and don’t kill me if it doesn’t happen, that we’ll have an announcement before Shabbat.

Wildcard Lieberman is last

Not looking like before Shabbat rn, since the news seems to have stopped. But the sides say next week apparently. Is there really anything that can stop this from happening?

Everything is always possible. As long as Bennett, Saar, and Gantz check on their caucuses daily to see everyone’s in line (especially the major suspect of each). Ra’am play ball. And Labour and Meretz conventions don’t pull any stunts to try and squeeze more. Oh and Liebereman not changing his mind until the vote.

So yeah...there’s quite a lot that could still happen.

For the major suspects, it's of course mostly Yamina- I only view Kahana and Orbach as 100% loyal to Bennet, Silman and Kara displayed pretty strong loyalty though. So it's probably Shaked as the main one (other than Chikli).
In New Hope, Sa'ar, Biton, Elkin and Begin are all pragmatists, so it's probably Haskel as the most likely defector, followed by Hendel (lol).
I doubt KL will break up after holding together through so many things. The only one I can see is maybe Trooper?

Also, as predicted, Lapid and Bennet met Lieberman now.

Shaked, Hendel, and Tamano Shata respectively. Not to defect but simply vote against.

According to Caspit everything is almost settled. Horowitz is a bit unhappy and Michaeli very unhappy. She’s playing with fire. The left voters will punish them severely if anything happens

I never understood this Tamano Shata thing honestly. She's been against Netanyahu for a long while and came from yesh atid

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According to Caspit everything is almost settled. Horowitz is a bit unhappy and Michaeli very unhappy. She’s playing with fire. The left voters will punish them severely if anything happens

He updated that the meeting between Michaeli and Bennet was good, and that both her and Horovits aren't going to delay anything but still didn't get any offer. I wouldn't be surprised if Michaeli ends up at the Home Office, judging by her sly political maneuvering during the talks with Ya'alon, Shelah and Huldai

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According to channel 12 (caution- they've been wrong in many, many occasions) Yamina has presented an ultimatum that Shaked gets Justice (rather than Sa'ar). Bunch of gluttons.

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Is Begin likely to get a Cabinet seat if Lapid forms the government?

Probably be in government on the right bloc quota. Not sure about cabinet (in the Israeli sense).

The Norwegian law means that:
Places 7 and 8 in Meretz and Sara’s lists could get in instead of two ministers.
Three subs for Yamina, YB, Labour, B&W for three ministers from each.
Five subs for five ministers from YA

I assume most parties will use it to enable Knesset work and keep more people happy

I bet Labour will only use 2 at most. #10 Gil Beilin is a loser who challenged Michaeli for  leadership

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Ministries that look like a done deal:
Bennet- PM
Lapid- Foreign
Lieberman- Finance
Karin Elharar (YA)- Communications
Zandberg (Meretz)- Environmental Protection

Pretty sure that Defense for Gantz, Justice for Sa'ar, Education for Shasha Biton and Home for Shaked is very, very likely too, but you never know.

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Ministries that look like a done deal:
Bennet- PM
Lapid- Foreign
Lieberman- Finance
Karin Elharar (YA)- Communications
Zandberg (Meretz)- Environmental Protection

Pretty sure that Defense for Gantz, Justice for Sa'ar, Education for Shasha Biton and Home for Shaked is very, very likely too, but you never know.

Didn't Lapid get the mandate from the President to be PM?

Yeah, but it'll probably be a rotation with Bennet for 2 years and Lapid for the next 2.

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Jpost reports that the parties are aiming for a majority vote on Thursday at the latest. Shaas is standing by Netanyahu versus a different Likudnik, so there isn't a majority for that even if Bibi could set his ego aside. Abbas is to vote in favor rather than abstain, which probably means a lot of (desperately needed) pork-barrel investment is coming to Arab communities.

EDIT: The timetable has been moved up to Tuesday.

Dare I say it's too soon, but:

HEY I HAVE A WHOLE MEME PREPARED IN THAT FORMAT