Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

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Camille Fox, one of the exit poll people, said there's a "dramatic decision". Probably means Bibi won

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Bibi is Dead! Long Live Bibi!

Told y’all before, the house always wins.

Can you not do that? Whatever you "tell y'all" is unsupported by any real information about Israeli politics and could've been a declaration that unicorns are real just as easily, so I kindly ask you not to do this, especially as many of us are hurting.

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61 for Netanyahu in channel 12- Likud 31, Yesh Atid 18, Shas 9, JL 9, Yamina 8, KL 7 (lol), Labour 7, Kahanists 7, YB 6, UTJ 6, New Hope 6, Meretz 6. Everyone passes easily

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I think Labour at 7 despite the huge and clearly very successful gevalt campaign from Meretz and KL squeezing them out from both sides... is like, amazing. It shows the powerful personal pull Merav has

If Meretz\KL weren't competing or didn't do any gevalt, I think Labour would be the election surprise and get easily over 10 and probably over 12 seats. With Meretz they got 13-14 seats in the current exits, and KL definitely has at least 2-3 seats of old school labourites and other relative moderates who wouldn't go for Yesh Atid. If both KL and Meretz weren't competing at all I could even see 14-15.

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Sa’ar went from being the alternative to Netanyahu to possibly leading the smallest party in the Knesset. Seems like the big loser of the election. Wasn’t there talk of New Hope MPs gravitating towards Likud again if the result was bad?

Sa'ar definitely fell off during the campaign. If Bibi+Yamina keeps 61 then some former Likudites may come crawling back.

However, these exit polls feel like there is a lot of uncertainty around the results - and I'm not saying that cause Bibi+Yamina have 61. A lot of parties results appear to differ from the polls so there could be a fluctuations in all directions when votes come in. I'm personally interested how far the polls put Ra'am below the threshold.

According to the Channel 12 dude: quite far. No chance of them passing

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Is anyone seeing where the remaining 20% should come from? Enough to flip 3 seats from the Bibi bloc?

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When's the vote reporting guy waking up and giving us more results

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Meretz got an extra seat over Ra'am. I'm not sure I'm correct but Ra'am might've got one if they signed a vote sharing agreement with the Joint List.

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Meretz got an extra seat over Ra'am. I'm not sure I'm correct but Ra'am might've got one if they signed a vote sharing agreement with the Joint List.

Hebrew Wikipedia suggests that they did not, and there were only six vote-surplus agreements:
- New Hope and Yamina
- Yesh Atid and Yisrael Beiteinu
- Blue and White and New Economics (Zelecha); I believe they don't count if a party doesn't hit the threshold
- Likud and Religious Zionist Party
- Labor and Meretz
- Shas and United Torah Judaism

Really leaving money on the table there.

Yep, they didn't. It shows how petty Abbad is (he's the one who refused to sign)- losing a seat just to get back at his former allies.

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Likud set to gain one seat over JL (31 to 5)
Yamina set to gain one over New Hope (7 to 5)
with them Bibi has 61. Unelss Shas loses one to YA.


Brace yourself, in several hours it's either tears or sighs

Holy sh**t no

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According to channel 12 it's over. 61 for the anti Bibi bloc

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Oh we got double envelope results:
Likud 25.5%
YA 13.8%
Yamemena 9.4%
Labour 8.1%
YB 6.6%
Kahanists 6.4%
KL 6.3%
Shas 5.7%
New Joke 5.2%
Meretz 4.8%
UTJ 3.26%
JL 2.6%
Ra'am 1.6%
Zalicha 0.9%
Antivax kooks 0.3%
Pirates 0.1%

[America Needs R'hllor]

Oh we got double envelope results:
Likud 25.5%
YA 13.8%
Yamemena 9.4%
Labour 8.1%
YB 6.6%
Kahanists 6.4%
KL 6.3%
Shas 5.7%
New Joke 5.2%
Meretz 4.8%
UTJ 3.26%
JL 2.6%
Ra'am 1.6%
Zalicha 0.9%
Antivax kooks 0.3%
Pirates 0.1%

Does this change the seat totals any?

Nope, except of the seat it moved from Ra'am to Meretz.

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After 11 straight elections where their raw vote total increased, the UTJ vote had a decline to 248k. Is that a record?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Torah_Judaism#Election_results

Idk if it's a record, but the reason is that a lot of Haredim were disappointed in their politicians actions during the covid-19 pandemic and thus... Voted for Smotrich-Ben Gvir.

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Idk what data he used but some of it is indeed odd- for example, the Likud voters for Gantz.

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Bibi isn’t trying to form a government. It’s a sham, he doesn’t want to be in the mercy of Bennett. He’s trying to make Ra’am up their demands so high so no one else could agree to give them what they want.

As I predicted two years ago, the presidential election is where the focus will be now. The fifth cycle is looking grim to him atm, he’ll try going in with more mustard.

According to Akiva Novik, there might be a loophole in the law that allows the Speaker to get all of the President's roles and responsibilities if he doesn't hold an election before the final possible date. This could really get explosive if Levin tries that. What do you think?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Bibi isn’t trying to form a government. It’s a sham, he doesn’t want to be in the mercy of Bennett. He’s trying to make Ra’am up their demands so high so no one else could agree to give them what they want.

As I predicted two years ago, the presidential election is where the focus will be now. The fifth cycle is looking grim to him atm, he’ll try going in with more mustard.

According to Akiva Novik, there might be a loophole in the law that allows the Speaker to get all of the President's roles and responsibilities if he doesn't hold an election before the final possible date. This could really get explosive if Levin tries that. What do you think?

Doesn't the new Knesset get to elect a new Speaker? The 2020 Knesset elected Gantz at the start of the term, for instance. The coalition that elected Gantz as Speaker a year ago still has a majority...

The Basic Law is vaguer here, the Speaker of the existing Knesset continues in his role until a new one is elected, the new one can be elected at the latest before the swearing of a new government. Edelstein was an interim speaker for two Knessets. When there was a majority to oust him of 61 MKs and he refused to hold the vote the SC issued a writ which he refused to comply with leading to a little crisis, Gantz was picked as Speaker as Bibi threatened to pull the plug on the rotation negotiations if someone from YA was elected.

Levine at the time called on Edelstein to refuse even to resign and called for the Courts Police to come to Knesset (basically as usual for that total nutjob calling for a civil war). It seems he would do the same now if they would try to replace him, though I'm not sure there are 61 MKs for voting him out atm so the SC might not intervene.

Yeah, until Ra'am or Yamina join the anti-Bibi side there's no majority for ousting Levin.

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Gantz will recommend Lapid. Joint List won't recommend anyone, ensuring Netanyahu has the highest number of recommendations. Joke party- the Arab public is justified in voting for representatives who are willing to work with zionist parties to achieve results.

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I feel a massive upset in the cards for everyone. Fits the rag-president we have with his corrupt history.

What do you mean?

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Yamina recommends Bibi. so no one has 61. Bibi will be with 52, Lapid with 45, Bennet with 13, and all Arab MKs recommend no one

Yamina recommends Bennet, ftr, probably typo

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Tibi and Ta'al might recommend Lapid- if Sa'ar recommends him. In that case, he'll get more recommendations than Netanyahu. It's all up to Sa'ar.

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New Joke recommends no one. Part of me thinks we deserve a Netanyahu government with Ra'am with that stupidity.

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The New Joke reps said that Rivlin should invite Bennet and Lapid to a meeting, he said that'd be a political intervention. That's what happens when the politicians aren't acting with strategy because they want to keep their hands clean and expect the apolitical President to do it for them

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*if I recall correctly Herzog also refused to invite Khana to consultation in 1984

If true, shameful that Rivlin didn't follow his example and refused to accept Ben Gvir as  RZ representative.

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Today the new Knesset is getting sworn in. It certainly has bright spots- two liberal Arab women sworn in from Zionist parties and Gilad Kariv will become the first non-Orthodox Rabbie to be MK. There will also be historically high LGBTQ representation, though unfortunately it's only gay men- 5 MKs, I believe.

But it's also a low- Itamar Ben Gvir will be sworn in as the first Kahanist representative since Michael Ben Ari in 2009. And this time he's in the mainstream.