Israel general discussion

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A new poll has a united centrist list of Yair Lapid, Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon and former Chief of General Staff Gabi Ashkenazi as the biggest party:

Centrist List- 33 seats
Likud- 26 seats
Zionist Union- 17 seats
United Arab List- 11 seats
Jewish Home- 9 seats
Torah Judaism- 7 seats
Yisrael Beitenu- 7 seats
Meretz- 7 seats
Shas- 3 seats (below the thershold, so the 3 would be distributed between the other parties)

Note that there is no option for a center-left or center-right coalition here- the hypothetical centrist list would obviously have to join the Zionist Union, but then they'd need 11 more for a majority. They can either tack left and join Meretz or tack right and join Yisrael Beitenu, but neither is a majority. Galon and Lieberman absolutely hate each other, so they won't sit together, and I suppose they could join Torah Judaism with Lieberman to have a majority, but many elements in Labour would be very much against it and I doubt the Haredi parties will sit with Lapid. But Likud can't build a coalition here either, so this forces a grand coalition between the Centrists and Likud, probably with Lieberman joining in. I doubt Labour would agree to join that coalition, they'd prefer to be in opposition.

There's also a poll with the current party composition:

Likud- 27
Yesh Atid- 21
Zionist Union- 19
Joint Arab List- 11
Jewish Home- 10
Torah Judaism- 8
Kulanu- 7
Yisrael Beitenu- 7
Meretz- 7
Shas- 3

This doesn't change much, but as terrible as Lapid is, it does seem to improve the center-left's situation, as Likud can't have the same coalition as today. They'd need Shas to pass the thershold to do it (or 2 of Shas' 3 to go to coalition parties, which is certainly possible). Still, the center-left can't build their own coalition here.

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Why are Shas polling so badly? Where would their voters even go other than the Likud?

I doubt (but sincerly hope) that they'll fall below the thershold, but it might be the combination of the split within the Der'i and Yishay wings of the party, combined with the recent criminal invistigations against Der'i. They have a core base of Sephardic Haredi Jews who will always vote for them, but I think they also took many of their voters from a ragtag coalition of loosely traditional to religious Mizrahi right-wingers and even Mizrahi leftists who still imagine Shas as some socialist fighters for Mizarhi Jews. So I guess that the voters leaving them go mostly to Likud, Jewish Home and maybe Avi Gabay's Labour.

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It could have been an indelicate way to state that due to America's lack of a universal draft, the majority of American Jews never see military service. (Same as every group in America) But it couldn't have been said worse, if so.

In any case, whether USA has a draft or not, it's not the business of any foreign government.

Yeah. A universal draft is actually inhumane and goes against basic democratic values, and moreso, causes immense pain for thousands of youths who just aren't made for a military system. So even though it's a necessary evil in Israel today, she shouldn't parrot it around like some high civilizational achievement.

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Health Minister Litzman, of the Haredi UTJ Party, announced his resignation because of... maintenance works in the Israeli Railways in Saturday. Works that are necessary in order for the trains to work on schedule in Sunday to Thursday, when people need to get to work. This is despite the fact that the works were heavily minimized- the Rabbe of the Ger sect, who holds Litzman by his you-know-what was unsatisfied with it.
Apparently his party will remain in the coalition, so we won't see new elections, and he will attempt to keep control of the Health Ministry by being a Deputy Minister again, but the Supreme Court denied that after the last elections so it's unclear if he can. Nice to see that our Health Minister cares about our health!

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Fast becoming an African banana republic. Likud are passing a bill that will prohibit the police from publishing findings from investigations that they deem should be prosecuted. You guessed it, the bill will hold retroactively in part on the investigations of one Netanyahu

Yeah, it seems to me increasingly likely that Bibi will escape the investigations relatively unscathed. This man is undermining out democracy in very concerning ways- he's slowly turning into the next Putin\Erdogan.

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Hyperbole, because free and fair elections aren't seriously endangered in Israel. The apt comparison is with parties like Croatian HDZ, who appeal to the masses with nationalism but are basically in power to line their pockets and allow the oligarchs to continue to do the same at the expense of the population.

But are they? When the justice system is castrated and threatened, I do fear for the rest of our democratic institutions.
And I'm not so sure that Putin necessarily rigs the Russian elections, at least not completely- he's just wildly popular and very effective in crushing political opposition. Though, I'm not saying that Bibi is doing this yet, or that he's that popular.

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There's not much need to rig an election if you can shut down all independent media, take out your political opponents, and prevent real opposition parties from standing in elections, but Putin does it anyway. All these regions in the Northern Caucasus don't really vote for Putin by more than 90% with similar turnout.

I know hyperbole is prevalent in all Israeli media, from left to right, to debilitating levels, but surely you are too smart to believe that what has happened in Russia or even Turkey is possible in Israel. Surely you know even better than I that Israel is a mature democracy in which the population would not accept a crackdown on basic democratic rights and in which the system has enough checks and balances to prevent this from happening. Which does not mean that what Netanyahu is doing now is acceptable, of course, or that citizens should close their eyes for it -- on the contrary.

It probably won't happen, yeah, and we have quite many checks and balances. But, I am worried about what appears to be the population becoming apathetic to all that the Likud is currently trying to do. Much thanks to Netanyahu, who urged this trend on, the Israeli society became deeply polarized, and it became a matter of left and right. Large swathes of the public seem to be blindly loyal to Netanyahu, despite everything, so yes, it does worry me.

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According to Haaretz, it seems like there's going to be a compromise in Meretz, giving the primaries to the party members rather than making them open, and Zehava Galon will stay on as leader. Also, the article says Gilon opposes the compromise, but that it's very likely to pass in the coming days.
Hnv, am I right to assume that it's a compromise between the Galon and Zandberg wings, ensuring them a majority against the Gilon people?

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According to Haaretz, it seems like there's going to be a compromise in Meretz, giving the primaries to the party members rather than making them open, and Zehava Galon will stay on as leader. Also, the article says Gilon opposes the compromise, but that it's very likely to pass in the coming days.
Hnv, am I right to assume that it's a compromise between the Galon and Zandberg wings, ensuring them a majority against the Gilon people?

Indeed, Zandberg personally wanted to side with Galon but some of her ranks are not so keen on her. It will probably pass (as everyone bar for the trots supports the compromise). I actually see no difference between this and the so called open primaries.

Leadership elections will be held in late March and I hope Galon gives Gilon a proper spanking in the general membership (though I do think this should be her last tenure)

Interesting, I approve. It keeps Galon instead of the socialists and leaves an option for me to vote for if no other party is sufficiently liberal on social issues.

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New poll by the right wing Makor Rishon (grain of salt etc.):
YA - 25 (polls all time high)
Likud - 24
JH - 14
ZU - 12 (ouch)
Joint list - 11
Kulano - 11
UTJ - 7
Meretz - 7
Lieberman - 5 (lmao)
Shas - 4 (lmao #2)

In this case Lapid can form a narrow coalition without JH with 62 seats.

Most fit to be PM:
Bibi - 24% (that’s a low I don’t recall since the mid naughties)
Lapid - 18%
yaalon - 7%
Bennet - 6%
Gabay- 6%
Lieberman - 3% (just retire already you cancerous cell)

With which parties? The Haredi won't choose him over whoever leads Likud, and Meretz won't sit with Lieberman.

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A poll about whether there should be government that regulates the economy or free market economy without government regulation.

overall 56% support government regulation to 36% free market (8% no opinion), by supporters of each party:
Likud: 59-34-7
Zionist Union: 60-37-3
Yesh Atid: 43-43-13
Kulanu: 43-52-4
Jewish Home: 68-24-8
Haredi parties: 48-41-10
Yisrael Beitenu: 45-50-5
Meretz: 65-27-8

For some they don't list the Joint List, but they do mention that Arabs were 62 for government regulation. Women were more supportive of government regulation than men and there was no correlation with income.

This is very interesting.
1. Lol, socialist Likud.
2. Zionist Union voters are just a bit more for regulations than Likud voters. In fact, the difference is probably within the margin of error.
3. How surprising, 13% of Yesh Atid voters don't have any opinion
4. Lol at 41% of Haredi voters supporting free market. Do they not realize that government regulations are the lifeblood of their public and of their politicians' trampling of religious freedom? A free market is a disaster for them, they rely on allowances, affirmative action and heavy funding.

[America Needs R'hllor]

A poll about whether there should be government that regulates the economy or free market economy without government regulation.

overall 56% support government regulation to 36% free market (8% no opinion), by supporters of each party:
Likud: 59-34-7
Zionist Union: 60-37-3
Yesh Atid: 43-43-13
Kulanu: 43-52-4
Jewish Home: 68-24-8
Haredi parties: 48-41-10
Yisrael Beitenu: 45-50-5
Meretz: 65-27-8

For some they don't list the Joint List, but they do mention that Arabs were 62 for government regulation. Women were more supportive of government regulation than men and there was no correlation with income.

terrible poll and terrible question framing. Anyway, how shocking is it that Lapid voters have the least interest and knowledge...

Do you have a link to that poll? I didn't see a Hebrew version with the questioning etc.

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Confirmed contenders in the Meretz primaries:
Zehava Galon - current chairwoman
MK Ilan Gilon
Avi Dabush- Social activists from the south, religious and Sephardic

MK Tamar Zandberg is contemplating a run, and rumors are Eldad Yaniv is also somehow thinking about i

Current membership is 18K but it will probably increase by March.

I currently endorse Galon, but may shift to Zandberg if she runs. Though if it will appear Gilon is carrying it I’ll vote for whoever has the best odds of taking him down

Eldad Yaniv commented on Galon's FB post calling her brave etc, so it'll surprise me if he runs. Also, I hope Zandberg doesn't run, it might increase Gilon's chances.

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Haredi community is more reasonable than their leadership. The problem is top is to bottom not the other way around.

I've actually heard that part of what caused the train works crisis a while ago was young Haredi journalists engaging on social media and reporting the maintenance works, which put pressure on the politicians to stop turning a blind eye.
Also, Sunrise, I'm sure many members of the coalition would love to show the Haredi parties their palms, but they just don't HAVE a coalition without them. Also, Jewish Home has been completely cooperative with this Haredi push to take away our freedom from religion.

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The minimarkets bill will likely be voted on tonight. With an opposition MK unable to come because of his brother's death and a coalition MK unable to come because of his mother's death, it appears as if the coalition has a 58-57 votes majority.
We need a John McCain right now. But I truly doubt that anyone other than Sharren Haskel is capable of this bravery. I'd hope that Beni Begin would show some spine, but he already proved that he doesn't have any.

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-08/recording-of-netanyahu-son-outside-strip-club-aired-on-israel-tv

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Umm yeah, that happened.

So do the Haredi parties walk out now?

Lolno. They care more about people not eating Kosher, and even that wouldn't make them do anything beyond a feeble protest.

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So Galon is basically like the Meretz equivalent to Hillary Clinton, and Gilon is more like Bernie Sanders?

Yes. Absolutely.

You can't really speak with this confidence about something so subjective.

Also, Hnv1, thanks for the info post, it was very intersting!

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If Bernie Sanders lived in Israel, he would be in Likud.

...That is quite clearly wrong.

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How come he's comparably right wing? Isn't Peace Now extremely dovish?

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If you don't support deporting the Africans, you are a traitor to Israel.

#HotTake

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Labour MKs Stav Shaffir and Michal Biran were suspended from the Knesset's general assembly for a week. The former for calling Likud MK Miki Zohar corrupt (a guy who explicitly tried to blackmail the coalition and get millions of shekels for his personal interests and attempted to pass a workaround that gave a tax relief specifically for cities that voted Likud), and the latter for calling Likud MK Oren Hazan a pimp (the guy who was literally proven in a courtroom to have managed a Bulgarian Casino that included prostitution).
This is the situation of the Israeli democracy- you get punished for telling the truth. The Likud has lost every shred of dignity- the only thing that can save the Israeli right from its moral bankruptcy is tearing all of these parties apart and starting anew.

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And Oren Hazan himself has been removed for six months, much longer than Shaffir, Biran and Raz, whose membership was suspended for one week for a week. All of this is incredibly ridiculous and will damage trust in politics. Suspending the mandate of democratically elected lawmakers should not be possible. And democratically elected lawmakers should behave themselves.

Yeah, but this is not a kindergarden- suspending Hazan doesn't make suspending the others rightful.
I'm not sure that suspending him was such a bad decision, to be honest. I mean, I don't usually watch Knesset sessions, but whenever I watch parts of almost any speech by a vaguely left-wing figure, there's always this shouting buffoon in the background, interrupting and screaming without any way to stop him. This guy is a serious problem for the normal democratic process in the Knesset, the way I see it. Like you said, he should behave himself, and of course, not only him- this entire tradition of screaming and shouting whenever someone speaks in the Knesset is honestly pathetic, and I never saw it in any other Western parliament. I agree that suspending a democratically elected lawmaker is problematic, but what other way would you enforce decorum on an unceasing trouble-maker like Hazan?

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MK Youssef Al-Atouna resigned to keep the Byzantine balance within the joint Arab list. Someone from Balad places 18th will be sworn in instead. Interestingly if 2 more resign we’ll have a second Jew on the list with Lea Zemmel, that will be the first Hadash had 2 Jewish MKs since 1989

She is from Balad,not Hadash.
She might be the first jewish MK from balad and the third female.

A Jewish MK from an Arabic nationalist party? Now that's unique.

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Finally: The police recommends the indictment of Bibi on 2 bribe charges.
This is going to be tasty

Any chance he's not indicted now?

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Well, when things fall apart the pace is accelerating. Bibi's top adviser who's now under arrest is now believed to have offered a sitting judge the position of an attorney general if she closes the criminal cases against Sarah Netanyahu. Bibi denies any knowledge but this is not all that different than the Bar On-Hebron scandal of his first tenure

Yep, and now there's another top advisor and former CEO of the Communications Ministry who will be a state witness against Netanyahu in the investigation about him giving Bezek (a communications firm) owner Shaul Elovitch benefits in exchange for better coverage in the media firm he owns at the same time, Walla. We now see in full light how corrupt the system of government-media barons is.
It's actually quite ironic- Netanyahu's obsession with media coverage will take him down, while he could've stayed on as PM for years more, bad coverage or not, if not for these investigations.