The absentee/early vote thread

[alomas]

Good numbers from Trump in FL and NC, which have already been strongest Republican swing-states in 2012. He must win those states. I don't care about Virginia and Wisconsin, Clinton can carry them by double-digits (that looks realistic) if only Trump will edge the ones he needs.

[alomas]

About turnout - do not forget that the number of people living in US has increased by 10 million since 2012

Florida looking good for Trump. In 2012 Democrats beat Republicans by 3 points in early voting while this year R are actually edging D so far. Romney reduced the margin by 2 points on election day.

Similar with North Carolina. Democrats won EV 2:1 in 2012 while this year their advantage is 3-4 points less. A bigger turnout may sound good and "reduce" the deficit but they are reports that black turnout has dropped a few points.

Arizona is also looking favourably for Trump. I read he is 5 points ahead in EV now (it was 3.5 earlier). Yes, it is behind their 2012 total but that gives him a 5 point with probably 70+% already cast. Obama barely gained anything on election day.

I don't know about Nevada but it looks good for Clinton as she is doing similar to 2012 (Obama won the state by almost 7 points). I don't know about the drop-off this week but so far it is trending her way.

[alomas]

Obama actually won the entirety of the early vote by 67K when VBM was included, IIRC. He won the state by 64K. He won in person early voting by 200K (1.35M to 1.15M and lost VBM by about 133K or 5%).

Are you sure about Florida? I read Democrats cast close to 250,000 more ballots than Republicans in 2012 while currently we have a Republican edge there.

[alomas]

Advantage Trump - NC, OH, IA, FL, AZ*
Advantage Clinton - CO, NV

* Clinton does better than Obama in AZ but not good enough to flip the state.

[alomas]

I wouldn't say that Trump has the advantage in IA, so much as it looks like he's overperforming Romney. Remember that Obama won by 5.8%, so a slight improvement for Trump isn't going to be enough to flip it.

I disagree. He is running about 5 points better than Romney right now and the lower turnout means the numbers are smaller. That already cancels out the margin. And if Trump is much more competitive in early voting then it is hard to believe he would do worse than Romney on election day.

[alomas]

I'm sorry I have mistaken Iowa for Colorado. But it is still not enough, Trump is running 2-3 points better + lower turnout + most/half at worst vote on 8.11. He is also doing better among Indies than Romney.

[alomas]

Florida has updated its numbers and Republicans have actually increased their advantage to 15-20k! NC also look favourably for Trump judging by the early vote, Clinton must overperform Obama amongst Indies by a few points and the black numbers are down. Both states are close though but I'd give an edge for Trump. In Arizona, Ohio and Iowa he has a bigger edge IMO. Strange decision from her to campaign in Arizona today.

But unfortunately I can't see a firewall state that is going to fall. Pennsylvania and Michigan look the best bet judging by the fact they are not voting until Election Day. She is ahead by a few points though.

It looks like the FL/NC polls are backwards, with NC being less diverse, Florida being more diverse (Latinos more than offsetting lower Black share).

I wouldn't say so. Florida's Hispanics are less favourable to Clinton than national average while blacks voted almost unanimously for her.