South Korean (early) presidential election (9 May 2017)

[peterthlee]

I will predict that liberal candidate will win 57-43 (strong liberal gain) in the GE head to head, crushing the conservatives by 59-41 in Seoul, sweeping through the swing states of Chungcheongs, Sejong and Daejeon, amassing a total of around 18 million votes (making them the most vote-getter in South Korean history).
Moreover, the liberals could keep Busan, a conservative bastion (Park obliterated Moon by a 3-2 margin in 2012) within 5 points...

[peterthlee]

Will President Moon invite Supreme leader Kim to visit Seoul?
This could earn him a Nobel Medal.

[peterthlee]

I'm eyeing for Moon >50% and Ahn at around 28-32%.
Moon will crack 55 in Seoul (last time he won 51-48 against then god-tier candidate Park).
However, in the Jeolla region, Moon could not get high 80 to 90 as Ahn has a small fraction of liberal votes.

[peterthlee]

Wow, Gangwon, which went to Park with an obliteration of 62-38 in 2012, yielded to Moon this time. Haha!