Taiwanese election, Jan 2016

[peterthlee]

Pan-blue will likely to nominate Wu Denyih (ex-VP and probably next KMT leader) than not and lose by a couple points (around 6-8 points).
Soong is not energetic to run for another election.
In this scenario, KMT will pick up Taipei, Taoyuan, Hsinchu (county with city), Miaoli and Nantou (Wu's home-boy edge), compared to 2016.
If DPP nominate their candidate for 2018 Taipei mayoral election (that candidate is tipped to lose), KMT could actually draft Dr Ko to be their independent presidential candidate.

[peterthlee]

In 2018 KMT will hold onto all their currently controlled administrations, whilst picking up Taipei, Yilan and Chiayi city.

[peterthlee]

Well, here are my wild guesses:
--> Taipei city: Eric Chu is a fairly decent card, but I bet KMT will ultimately nominate ex-MP for Taipei's first congressional district, Ting Shou-chung. He accidentally lost his seat in 2016 due to Tsai's sweeping force territory-wide. In this case Taipei will be pure toss-up, but as Ko slowly has his stance trending away from DPP (he is actually a centrist), the ultra-pro-independence faction of DPP might not fully back him like 2014, and Ting will squeak out by 1 point.
--> New Taipei City: immediately after the 2016 elections, people thought that KMT was guaranteed to lose that seat. However, vice-mayor Hou Youyi smashed all DPP opponents (by >10 points) except William Lai (by -2 to +6). In the end, he might win a couple points (around 2-3 points) even if Lai runs.

[peterthlee]

Yup. Wu will make KMT more viable than Hung, who is pro-unification diehard. Her ideology is very toxic to genuine Taiwanese who would prefer autonomy to reunification.

Ex-President Chen is too fragile to make a third run for office. What the radical pro-independence bloc could do is to rally around Tsai or blow up the entire bloc with DPP by nominating their own candidate. Of course, any of their candidates will be marginalized, but they all have a floor of around 7-8%. Some include Chen Chimai, MP for territory-wide at-large constituency and the forerunner for mayor of Kaohsiung (to succeed 3-term 'flora lady' Kiku Chen).

[peterthlee]

Yup. Wu will make KMT more viable than Hung, who is pro-unification diehard. Her ideology is very toxic to genuine Taiwanese who would prefer autonomy to reunification.
But after 2014 and 2016 the political map has been re-calibrated and the expectations within DPP is for DPP to win in both Taipei City and New Taipei city if a top tier candidate like Lai were to run so if he lost that would ruin his chances in 2020 and 2024.

He could be easily ditched by either Ting or Chu in Taipei City. He also faces an uphill battle in New Taipei city, as his major opponent, Hou Youyi, is ramping up support city-wide.

The only outlook for him not to be dumped so early is to become the PM.