The sad thing is that the South isn't as conservative as it appears; it's just that many potential voters that would vote Democratic don't show up to the polls or register to vote because they feel defeated by the conservative force here in the south. Georgia has been controlled, until 2002, by Democrats at the state level; what I don't understand is why people here trust local Democrats but not national ones.
Most of my family comes from the N. Georgia area around Gainesville, Dawsonville, etc. They're prob. some the last remaining Dems. in that part of the state
Interesting points. My state is still pretty evenly balanced. I think the main reasons it swung to Bush so strongly in 2004 were:
1) 9/11 'patriotism'
2) anti-gay feeling (we had a referendum shortly prior to the election)
3) dislike of Kerry as a northeasterner.
I think it will be difficult for a Democrat to win over that crucial middle swing vote, because they tend to vote based on emotion - like voting for a dead guy out of sympathy or Bush out of anger/nationalism. This type of empty-headed voter is normally much more amenable to the GOP's 'patriotic' blandishments and simplistic view of social issues rather than the Democrats more moderate, thoughtful positions.
Anyway, I agree Nevada is headed Democrat without the need of much effort or expenditure.
I think Colorado should be a big priority, certainly way ahead of Arizona.
MO, though you live there (and have more expertise), I'm willing to give a shot. We'll see what happens in the upcoming gubernatorial election as well (the current governor rode to victory on Bush's coattails).
Colorado is definitely a state in which we should focus time and energy (something more important than money, but don't tell Kerry that who still begs for money...ugggh). Arizona's like GA, I'm afraid is a big state we'll have to let go of. But FL is not. We've got to win that state.