Howard Dean pours extra money into four red states. (user search)
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  Howard Dean pours extra money into four red states. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Howard Dean pours extra money into four red states.  (Read 4559 times)
tarheel-leftist85
krustytheklown
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,274
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« on: June 03, 2005, 01:49:55 PM »

It's actually a great idea.
Missouri:  Something has happened.  There's no good reason why this state should turn red...unless we let them.  It has been the ultimate bellweather for over a century.  Clinton and Carter certainly got more than the big cities.  Remember, this is not a out of touch state.  They elected a dead guy over Ashcroft, something that didn't happen in Minnesota.  We cannot lose this bellweather.
Mississippi:  This is actually a very good idea.  The proportion of black people in Missouri is slowly increasing.  Couple that with a disproportionately large  turnout, and you have 48% D.  If you can get the white vote from 15 to 20-25%, this state will turn blue.
North Carolina:  This state is only going to grow and become more Democratic.  Pretty much everything is controlled by Dems. on a state level.  Young people have really been trending Democrat and it's one of the few places in the south where you'll find Democratic white people (Asheville and Chapel Hill especially).  If we can bring the white vote from 27% Dem. to 33% Dem., we've got 49+% and the state is up for grabs.  The state will be larger than Michigan and just a couple 100 thousand behind Pennsylvania.
Nevada:  That might be the dumbest choice, as it will prob. be ours by the next election. (we gain 2+% with every election which will bring us up just a hair under 50% but enough to win), but I guess it couldn't hurt to throw a little money in the mix.
In addition to these four, I'd be throwing resources (people more than money) at Florida, Colorado, and Virginia.  We really need to be building a base in these states, because (w/ the exception of MO) they'll be growing, while the states we're currently winning won't be.  To ignore the south would be fatal, as the Republicans learned a while back.
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tarheel-leftist85
krustytheklown
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,274
United States


« Reply #1 on: June 03, 2005, 07:24:59 PM »

The sad thing is that the South isn't as conservative as it appears; it's just that many potential voters that would vote Democratic don't show up to the polls or register to vote because they feel defeated by the conservative force here in the south. Georgia has been controlled, until 2002, by Democrats at the state level; what I don't understand is why people here trust local Democrats but not national ones.
Most of my family comes from the N. Georgia area around Gainesville, Dawsonville, etc.  They're prob. some the last remaining Dems. in that part of the state Sad
Interesting points. My state is still pretty evenly balanced. I think the main reasons it swung to Bush so strongly in 2004 were:
1) 9/11 'patriotism'
2) anti-gay feeling (we had a referendum shortly prior to the election)
3) dislike of Kerry as a northeasterner.

I think it will be difficult for a Democrat to win over that crucial middle swing vote, because they tend to vote based on emotion - like voting for a dead guy out of sympathy or Bush out of anger/nationalism. This type of empty-headed voter is normally much more amenable to the GOP's 'patriotic' blandishments and simplistic view of social issues rather than the Democrats more moderate, thoughtful positions.

Anyway, I agree Nevada is headed Democrat without the need of much effort or expenditure.

I think Colorado should be a big priority, certainly way ahead of Arizona.
MO, though you live there (and have more expertise), I'm willing to give a shot.  We'll see what happens in the upcoming gubernatorial election as well (the current governor rode to victory on Bush's coattails).
Colorado is definitely a state in which we should focus time and energy (something more important than money, but don't tell Kerry that who still begs for money...ugggh).  Arizona's like GA, I'm afraid is a big state we'll have to let go of.  But FL is not.  We've got to win that state.
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tarheel-leftist85
krustytheklown
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,274
United States


« Reply #2 on: June 04, 2005, 08:36:03 AM »

Actually, AR's nice b/c you get more bang for your buck.  Fewer raw votes to change (~51,000+50% new voters), cheaper commercial market, for 6 (disproportionately large, though that's another argument) EV's.  Nevada (~10,000+50% new voters), Iowa (7,000+50% new voters), and New Mexico (~3,000+50% new voters) are similar.  I guess FL would be my first big target, but I wouldn't piddle away and throw resources there sporadically as socially liberal John Kerry did b/c he was foolishly spending time in a socially conservative state.
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