Update - ran w/ my spreadsheet numbers which incl. state PVs, estimated turnout, national PV, and trend (state swing - national swing).
Obie Mittens Turnout Margin 12 Margin 08 Trend
ME 51.40 45.38 708000 6.02 17.32 -4.03
NH 49.58 48.79 720000 0.79 9.61 -1.55
VT 61.03 34.72 315000 26.31 37.01 -3.43
MA 55.44 41.85 3213000 13.59 25.81 -4.95
RI 56.66 40.02 459000 16.64 27.81 -3.90
CT 52.03 45.94 1647000 6.09 22.37 -9.01
NY 56.32 41.63 7449000 14.69 26.86 -4.90
NJ 52.10 46.00 3957000 6.10 15.53 -2.16
PA 50.50 47.51 5925000 2.99 10.31 -0.05
DE 55.46 42.49 417000 12.97 24.98 -4.74
MD 57.16 40.88 2646000 16.28 25.44 -1.89
DC 93.00 5.90 276000 87.10 85.92 8.45
NORTHEAST 54.31 43.55 27732000 10.75
VA 51.47 47.14 3969000 4.33 6.3 5.30
NC 49.91 49.18 4557000 0.73 0.33 7.67
SC 45.85 52.85 1980000 -7.00 -8.98 9.25
GA 46.31 52.72 4122000 -6.41 -5.2 6.06
FL 49.95 49.08 8709000 0.87 2.81 5.33
AL 36.02 61.96 2079000 -25.94 -21.58 2.91
MS 43.54 55.19 1287000 -11.65 -13.17 8.79
LA 37.73 59.67 1926000 -21.94 -18.63 3.96
TX 44.52 54.45 8165000 -9.93 -11.76 9.10
WV 37.35 58.63 654000 -21.28 -16.22 2.21
KY 37.23 59.26 1758000 -22.03 -16.22 1.46
TN 37.52 59.77 2427000 -22.25 -15.06 0.08
AR 37.02 59.28 1048000 -22.26 -19.85 4.86
MO 44.50 53.30 2934000 -8.80 -0.13 -1.40
SOUTH 45.29 53.19 45615000 -7.90
OH 49.63 48.62 5766000 1.01 4.58 3.70
IN 45.21 52.77 2796000 -7.56 1.03 -1.32
IL 56.16 42.27 5406000 13.89 25.11 -3.95
MI 50.48 47.47 4869000 3.01 16.44 -6.16
WI 49.52 48.64 2991000 0.88 13.9 -5.75
MN 49.54 47.03 2838000 2.51 10.24 -0.46
IA 49.58 48.71 1506000 0.87 9.53 -1.39
ND 36.89 58.47 318000 -21.58 -8.65 -5.66
SD 37.05 58.58 366000 -21.53 -8.41 -5.85
NE 35.20 61.72 780000 -26.52 -14.93 -4.32
KS 35.15 61.67 1197000 -26.52 -14.92 -4.33
OK 30.03 69.97 1410000 -39.94 -31.29 -1.38
MIDWEST/PLAINS 48.36 49.61 30243000 -1.26
MT 41.07 53.24 489000 -12.17 -2.38 -2.52
ID 28.43 67.29 663000 -38.86 -25.3 -6.29
WY 27.19 68.53 246000 -41.34 -32.24 -1.83
UT 18.32 77.56 969000 -59.24 -28.02 -23.95
CO 49.39 48.62 2343000 0.77 8.95 -0.91
NM 50.15 46.03 834000 4.12 15.13 -3.74
AZ 44.65 53.42 2196000 -8.77 -8.48 6.98
NV 50.51 46.51 984000 4.00 12.49 -1.22
AK 34.74 61.22 318000 -26.48 -21.54 2.33
WA 51.01 45.02 2934000 5.99 17.08 -3.82
OR 50.62 46.06 1773000 4.56 16.35 -4.52
CA 55.59 42.18 13329000 13.41 24.03 -3.35
HI 63.53 33.82 450000 29.71 45.26 -8.28
PACIFIC 50.45 46.81 27528000 3.63
48.99 48.99 131118000 -0.00001 7.27
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