November 2018: New Caledonia independence referendum

[crals]

Two years ago it was 43,33% for independence, now it's 46,74%, in two years on third and last referendum it could be over 50%.

If we get to two years from now with a boom in nickel prices (at the moment, they are well down on the peak from 5-10 years ago - which doesn't help and independent NC's economic prospects) and extended economic crisis in France then maybe. Otherwise no, positions are too entrenched; people aren't changing their minds - today was more Kanaky voters turning out to vote, and at 86% participation there isn't much further to go.

And even in the event of a yes, imagine the protracted crisis when every post-98 immigrant goes "hang on, we're being made independent and we didn't even get any input in the decision?". Fun, fun...

In the end the immigrants would just have to move to France if they don't like the result, I don't think there is much they could actually do about it. There is a sense of pan-Melanesian solidarity and the Kanaks could rely on military aid from PNG and likely also Fiji if the immigrants or Caldoche extremists tried to sabotage independence. Winning the last referendum and getting the French out is what matters, once that's accomplished there'll be a (hopefully slow) exodus of non-Kanaks and the country will gradually get a Kanak majority.

Wouldn't that lead to brain drain? I support NC independence but they should aim for better ethnic relations imo, not necessarily a Kanak majority.

[crals]

Two years ago it was 43,33% for independence, now it's 46,74%, in two years on third and last referendum it could be over 50%.

If we get to two years from now with a boom in nickel prices (at the moment, they are well down on the peak from 5-10 years ago - which doesn't help and independent NC's economic prospects) and extended economic crisis in France then maybe. Otherwise no, positions are too entrenched; people aren't changing their minds - today was more Kanaky voters turning out to vote, and at 86% participation there isn't much further to go.

And even in the event of a yes, imagine the protracted crisis when every post-98 immigrant goes "hang on, we're being made independent and we didn't even get any input in the decision?". Fun, fun...

In the end the immigrants would just have to move to France if they don't like the result, I don't think there is much they could actually do about it. There is a sense of pan-Melanesian solidarity and the Kanaks could rely on military aid from PNG and likely also Fiji if the immigrants or Caldoche extremists tried to sabotage independence. Winning the last referendum and getting the French out is what matters, once that's accomplished there'll be a (hopefully slow) exodus of non-Kanaks and the country will gradually get a Kanak majority.

Wouldn't that lead to brain drain? I support NC independence but they should aim for better ethnic relations imo, not necessarily a Kanak majority.

It was merely a prediction based on how post-colonial societies usually develop and the Kanaks natural desire to assert themselves and their culture, I think it would be more or less inevitable over time, but hopefully it would be a slow and gradual process with more Kanaks getting a higher education along the way to make up for the brain drain.

Sorry, I misinterpreted the post.