Portugal's politics and elections

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PSD are stedily climbing, seems Rio's good debate performances could save them from a massive electoral failure, at the expense of CDS. Cristas' recent claim that high class people are the most forgotten about won't help either.

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Who exactly is Livre for? I assumed their niche would be lost by the rise of PAN.

Livre's niche is identity politics. Their lead candidate is a black woman with a disability and they're campaigning pretty much solely around that.

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Electoral compass for the 2019 general elections:

https://www.bussolapolitica.org/

Enjoy!

Got closest to PAN. Too much of a one issue party for me though, helping the environment won't solve the rising rent prices many people have to deal with, for example. About the same distance from BE and PS, which coincidentally, are the two parties which I'm undecided between for the next election.

I got PAN as well. Wouldn't mind voting for them, even though their policies are often naive and self-contradicting. They've contributed a lot to making the environment a major topic in Portugal with only one MP. But they have no chance of electing a MP from my constituency.

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The difference between PSD and PS in the polls has gone from over 23% less than a month ago to less than 7% now. Just like last time PS is losing so much ground just before the election. Rio might stay on as PSD leader after all.

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Despite the poor relationship between them BE remains more than willing to back a PS government (and is explicitly campaigning on it). PS will have to choose between them and governing without majority support (likely with tacit PSD support).

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I just hope Chega stays out of the parliament. As a satirical article pointed out it's basically an internet comment box given life.

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PS could get a majority with PAN, which is nearly as good for them as an absolute majority.

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Pundits and PSD members on TV seem to agree that Rio can/will stay on as PSD leader with this result

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The amusing results for the small island/municipality of Corvo in total votes:

PS 85
PPM 64
...
CDS 3
PSD 1

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IL above 2% in the district of Lisbon, Chega and Livre both around 2%... PAN got their seat with less than 2% back in 2015.

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Somebody said RIR may win a seat in Porto? IL overtook it - they are at 1,49%, while RIR is at 1,16%. I think neither of them will win a seat in Porto.

RIR overperformed in the party leader's homeland, which is in the district of Porto and was counted early on.

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Chega and Livre are entering the parliament. A sad day for Portugal, no longer one of the few Western countries without the populist right in parliament.

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Chega and Livre are entering the parliament. A sad day for Portugal, no longer one of the few Western countries without the populist right in parliament.

André Ventura... a man who campaign against corruption, but defends with everything Benfica. Ridiculous.

Hopefully his mask will fall soon enough

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Is Joacine really the first black MP? What about Hélder Amaral (CDS) and Nilza de Sena (PSD)?

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Speaking of which, their best results seem to be in what looks like outer suburbs rather than Lisbon itself?

I'm guessing places like Loures are somewhat downmarket satellite towns?

Not only that, but Loures is Ventura's homeland

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Rio's situation is very Corbyn in 2017-like. He's part of the reason why PSD did poorly but he's also part of the reason why it recovered during the campaign, he can somewhat convincingly blame infighting and the press for much of the party's woes, still has support inside the party, and got a result that was just convincing enough not to be a total defeat (getting over a third of the seats, avoiding an all-time low, preventing a PS majority). I think he will stay on.

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This is a bad idea.

Why? The alternative was a deal with BE only, which would strain relationships both on the left and with PSD.

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This is a bad idea.

Why? The alternative was a deal with BE only, which would strain relationships both on the left and with PSD.

This outcome was expected. In fact, that round of meetings with all leftwing parties that Costa held seem, IMO, quite ridiculous and a bit degrading. All had an air of theatre. PS would find it almost impossible to accommodate some of BE's demands like the revision of workers laws, minimum wage increases and spending increases, as Mário Centeno would block almost, if not all, of BE's main policy flags.

Why not just remove Mario Centeno?

He is literally the reason PS are doing so well

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This is a bad idea.

Why? The alternative was a deal with BE only, which would strain relationships both on the left and with PSD.

This outcome was expected. In fact, that round of meetings with all leftwing parties that Costa held seem, IMO, quite ridiculous and a bit degrading. All had an air of theatre. PS would find it almost impossible to accommodate some of BE's demands like the revision of workers laws, minimum wage increases and spending increases, as Mário Centeno would block almost, if not all, of BE's main policy flags.

Yeah, heaven forbid a party with "Socialist" in its name actually enact pro-worker policies.

That tweet sounds about right. It seems that Costa always was a third-wayer who only made concessions to the left when that was his only road to power.

This really doesn't change anything as PS will still rely on the left for budgets etc, and they already ignored the left whenever they wanted anyway

As for the second part, despite what delusional foreign media seemed to believe, everyone in Portugal knows that's the case

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PNR got 2% outside of Europe wow

Perhaps influenced by the far-right in Brazil, the USA and elsewhere... Extremely ironic.

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how are the small parties handling their arrival onto the political scene? Will any of them flameout like that Earth Party a few years back?

I don't think the Earth Party is really comparable, as they were only a vehicle for a certain candidate rather than getting an actual party breakthrough. These new parties are filling actual voids in Portuguese political spectrum and have a better chance of long term survival.

Chega and IL have been doing well so far, pointing their guns straight at the government as expected. Livre has to deal with the massive problem of their MP's severe stuttering overshadowing their message.

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JKM abstained on a pro-Palestinian vote, against Livre's leadership/manifesto and woke Twitter, her only voters, who are "cancelling" her. That was fast.

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Tbh I could see JKM and her fans defecting to the Bloco Esquerda

Even the BE are more moderate than JKM/Livre on culture war issues, besides they'd have nothing to gain from welcoming somebody so unpopular and unreliable. And I believe JKM would be forced to give up her seat if she switches parties.