Remember that Obama also won North Carolina in 2008. I'm pretty sure atlas would have been convinced NC would go the way of VA and be a safe blue state, and yet we're 16 years later and it's still basically the only time it flipped blue in a presidential year since.
One of the reasons GA flipped in 2020 was high turnout and given the trends for 2024, that will dramatically be less, there is also no senate election downballot here.
well assuming that's the case, what shifts GA rightward, or keeps it as a swing state in the long term?
I say this not because I disagree with you, but I think there needs to be more evidence than, "it could happen."
For example, after 2010 we could clearly see trends at play in NC that would keep Republicans competitive -- which was rural are exurban regions becoming redder without Wake and Mecklenburg keeping up.
Meanwhile, Warnock's win in 2022 built on Biden's inroads in Metro ATL, while the Republican wins that year largely ran through the same suburbs where Warnock gained. That tells me that incumbents like Kemp and Raffensperger built a unique coalition based around their independence from Trump. Those same voters aren't gonna turn around this year and vote FOR Trump.
I'm not saying GA's long term trend isn't left, but obviously there is some natural fluctuation. Just like climate change, you have ups & downs even if the long term trend is up.
While in 2024, GA might solidly back Trump or like +2/+3 margin, it could very well be +5 D in 2028.
I'm not saying it will become solidly R again. But the process might not be as smooth as sometimes it's stated, some people seem to believe GA might never vote R anymore except for maybe locally.
2010 was also a horrible year for the Democrats nation-wide.
The reason i believe 2024 is turn-out dynamics and the fact that Biden as an incumbent is very popular too, if people believe the entire southeast is going to swing right-wing, than why would Georgia be immune to that.
I wouldn't be so confident if i were other people, and there is a reason why some of the Democratic strategists are saying this, or why the polls so far in Georgia are not looking good. It's not simply, because they are wrong.
And i'm not saying Democrats shouldn't target Georgia. They should always do so, they would be stupid to not too. It's also still january (!), a lot can happen still.
I'm not expecting a dramatic swing in the suburbs (tho some swing is possible). I just believe turnout in Atlanta proper / metro might not be as great as in 2020, and if there are less raw votes from there, there's less room for error. It's not all about the swings and the independents and suburbs, it's also about turnout and raw vote and if the youth or black voters aren't enthusiastic, you'll notice that.
1.7 million is black in metro atlanta
and it's a youthful city. Pretty sure the average 25 yr old might not care as much for a white 81 year old president.
And even a 10% drop in turnout would be very notable, thats like 170.000 people less, enough for a +5 win for Trump.
Don't believe me?
Look at what Obama did in 2008 and the drop from 2012 (less enthusiasm)
But also what Biden did in 2020. That will be insanely hard to replicate again. And you can sort of expect that for a lot of Atlanta proper and inner suburbs.
Go back to 2016 levels Atlanta and you already have 90.000 ppl of the 160.000 you need, for my hypothetical explanation and this is just Fulton County.
And 2020 had exceptional HIGH turnout.
This is the main reason why polls in GA are this bad (the +5 margin), and while this can be still solved up to election day, it will be hard to replictae 2020 because 2020 was exceptional, and progress isn't continuous (taking one step back to make two forward is common).
Secondly, an anti-Trump voter might not necessarily vote for Biden. And Herschel Walker is no Trump. Neither is Biden Warnock.
here, dekalb. And no i'm not saying its gonna swing right or so. I'm talking about raw vote, that would mean the votes statewide would be less to made up for losses in rural GA. Though in DeKalb it would a few tens of K you lose as opposed to maybe 100K in Fulton.
Like check how much turnout rose in Gwinnett.
even Trump gained 20K in raw vote but Dems 80K. So a 60K increase in widening vote difference here. I mean it's about certainly going to fall a bit. This is such an exceptionally great performance that it basically requires high enthusiasm and great turnout efforts, and the first might be an issue given Biden no longer has the benefit of ppl not having seen them in office while Trump has somewhat faded to the background.
