LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
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Posts: 15,688
Political Matrix E: -7.42, S: -4.78
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« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2021, 06:16:12 AM » |
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« Edited: March 23, 2021, 06:21:19 AM by Laki »
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Communism will probably get more popular again when 1. the current social issues aren't relevant anymore, and people won't vote on social issues anymore (since that is likely to benefit conservatives instead of the left), so if migration and social progress gets stable and is actually "complete" (define complete as you wish).
2. when it will get clear that capitalism isn't able to response to the issues of today: mainly environmentalism and climate change. The only hope capitalism has is technological innovation or that green energy at a certain point will be more beneficial than fossil fuels for companies, similar to how Netflix destroyed Blockbuster (or how video on demand services destroyed video stores). Still that will probably stop or halt climate change a bit more, but it doesn't deal with other environmental issues, where more widespread global spatial planning will be needed. We need actually an environmental UN that will create tough new environmental Geneva conventions that other nations are bound to follow, or be kicked out of the international community and be excommunicated by everyone who has signed it. Problem is will nations be willing to enter new environmental Geneva conventions?
3. Capitalism is similar to like trust in a bubble of money speculation. There are good times and there are worse times. The fact capitalism survived this long is in part of because of government support, but in some occassions, there will be very rough times ahead in the future to a level of the Great Depression or more severe, and capitalism will have to find a way out or adapt, or it will get extinct in a short time. Imagine Venezuela on a global level (and ironically, it is capitalism that ruined it and not socialism), in part because Venezuela is also dealing with a shrinking economy, because half of it's GDP is reliant on oil, and because of an incompetent government that wasn't able to foresee this, and of course because austerity measures are not popular measures (if you lose half of your income, cut half of your expenses, is easier said than done).
The point is however, whenever there is a large financial / economical crisis, trust in capitalism will decrease, and the curiosity to try out communism will increase, partially because communism will start to fade out of people's memories, and people will want to try it out, similarly to how fascism will be tried out again out of curiosity and because the shared memories of WW2 are slowly but surely fading out.
I'm not sure if we will see it in our lifetime. I don't see a crisis becoming very imminent (and if it was, COVID-19 would've triggered it, and it did trigger a crisis, but not of the extent i expected too if a major crisis was imminent of the severity of the Great Depression). 2 is the biggest question mark out of the 3, since that will increase the risk of a capitalist collapse, but i don't think 2 is inevitable to happen, there are solutions to circumvent it, but i'm not sure if we will be able to do that. I think 2 has the biggest potential for collapse, but turn out to be nothing. 1 is not for the immediate future, and might actually take a full generation lifetime at least and 3 is unpredictable but probably not for anytime soon.
So i think it's not for our lifetimes, but perhaps for the 22st century. But by than what could be seen as communism is going to be entirely different, some kind of ideology we cannot foresee or turns out to be very different of communism and only merely reminescent of the communist ideology in the 20th century.
And perhaps it requires a united world (which will not happen soon, unless we are dealing with a threat that will unite us all like an alien invasion or something similar, but than we will have united to deal with the threat, not to install communism, but if we defeat the threat, than communism is more likely to happen soon, esp. if we're sure that the threat will not be recurrent, which I also doubt tbh).
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