This would probably be similar to Obama vs McCain, but with a succesful third party in the South, and also less bad than McCain - Palin. Whoever is going to be the conservative independent candidate who focuses in the South and who-ever Baker picks as VP will greatly matter. I think Sanders will convince a lot of Obama - Trump voters, but might lose a lot Romney - Clinton voters. Some Trump voters will vote third party. Some libertarians might vote for Baker. Some Greens might vote Sanders. This is hard to predict, but I predict Baker will not be able to unite the Republican Party, and lose the election.
I think Baker holds on in Georgia and North Carolina by convincing moderate Dems although a third party might really do well here. Missouri, Indiana and Ohio might be nailbiters, but i'm going to be conservative and keep them in Baker's column. Massachussets won't be competitive. New Hampshire stays in Sanders' column narrowly because Sanders is a good fit for New Hampshire, and in general a good candidate. Massachussets might be a bit closer, but New Jersey and Connecticut certainly will. Delaware and Maryland might be, but those are not the areas where Republicans will look into improving their margins, and the lack of conservative turn-out will hurt them in the end.
Baker will improve the Republican's percentages in the Southwest, keeping Arizona republican and by a likely margin and making Colorado and New Mexico a bit closer. I don't think Baker is a very good fit for Nevada. I also believe Sanders will make enough gains in central Florida while Baker might lose a lot of votes in the Florida Panhandle. His better vote percenatges in the south won't make up for it. I predict a similar situation in Virginia.
