Belgian Politics & Elections: Federal, regional & EP elections on June 9, 2024

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https://twitter.com/SanderClaess/status/1680617386729168896

You in Cuba Laki?

I've been part of this student group, but not anymore so i'm not in Cuba, though if given the chance i probably would accept or take the opportunity.

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https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2023/10/03/flemish-socialist-leader-to-be-questioned-about-allegations-of-r/

https://twitter.com/Belga_English/status/1708737559449203167

https://twitter.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1709979535179989104

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New polling









in Brussels

https://twitter.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1712787355407429691

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Some polls for the mayoral elections next year

Antwerp

Current mayor: Bart De Wever (N-VA)
Coalition: N-VA, Vooruit & Open VLD





Seat distribution as it is currently the case

Weet het niet = Don't know / undecided

Ghent

Current mayor: Matthias De Clercq (Voor Gent = Vooruit+Open VLD)
Coalition: Vooruit + Open VLD + Groen + CD&V





Seat distribution as it is currently the case

Bruges

Current mayor: Dirk De Fauw (CD&V
Coalition: CD&V + Vooruit + Open VLD





Seat distribution as it is currently the case

Voor Brugge = Vooruit.

In 10 cities we will have more poll results in the next days: Aalst, Genk, Hasselt, Kortrijk, Leuven, Mechelen, Oostende, Roeselare, Sint-Niklaas en Turnhout

Overall, trend is: losses for Open VLD & gains for PVDA & VB

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Trend lines for the three cities i mentioned above

Antwerp





N-VA -12%
Groen -3.6
Vooruit -1.2
VB +2.2
PVDA +2.5
CD&V -2.8
Open VLD -1.9
Undecided: +20.0
Others: -3.1

Bruges





CD&V -14.9
Vooruit -5.8
Open VLD -6.4
N-VA -5.7
Groen -2.6
VB +4.4
PVDA +3.6
Undecided: +27.2
Others: -0.7

Ghent





This is a bit complex due to the coalition to calculate, but i'll attempt it


Groen +0.4
Vooruit -6.7
Open VLD -15.1
N-VA -0.3
CD&V -4.4
VB +3.4
PVDA +4.0
Others -4.4
Undecided +23.2

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Kortrijk





VB +3.9%
Open VLD -17.9%
Vooruit -4.1%
N-VA -1.0%
Groen -0.9%
CD&V -9.5%
PVDA +4.0%
Undecided: +26.9%
Others: -1.5%

Hasselt





Vooruit/Groen -7.6%
N-VA -15.6%
VB +4.2%
CD&V -11.3%
PVDA +2.8%
Open VLD -4.2%
Undecided +30.4%
Others: +1.3%

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Leuven





Vooruit -5.9%
N-VA -6.2%
Groen -7.0%
CD&V -6.8%
PVDA +2.5%
VB +2.5%
Open VLD -1.8%
Others +0.3%
Undecided +23.7%

Mechelen





VLD-Groen-M+ -25.5%
N-VA -1.6%
VB +2.9%
Vooruit -1.2%
CD&V -1.5%
PVDA +2.5%
Others: -1.0%
Undecided: +25.4%

Ostend





Vooruit +4.9%
VB +1.9%
VLD/CD&V/Groen / Trots op Oostende: -28.3%
N-VA: -7.0%
LDD: +7.0%
PVDA +3.5%
Others: -3.6%
Undecided: +21.3%

__

Five more to go

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A bunch of more middle-sized cities

Roeselare



CD&V -20.0%
VB +4.8%
N-VA -5.5%
Vooruit -3.3%
Groen -3.6%
Open VLD -4.6%
PVDA +4.0%
Others: +0.8%
Undecided: +27.3%

Sint-Niklaas



Home city of Vooruit chairman Conner Rousseau

VB +5.5%
N-VA -14.6%
Vooruit: +0.8%
Groen: -4.5%
CD&V -5.1%
PVDA +1.2%
Open VLD -4.5%
Others: -0.1%
Undecided: +21.4%

Turnhout



N-VA -10.6%
VB +8.9%
Vooruit -0.5%
TIM -4.6% (local party)
Groen -4.4%
CD&V -8.6%
Open VLD -3.7%
PVDA +1.1%
Others -1.0%
Undecided: +23.5%

Genk



CD&V -19.1%
N-VA -4.6%
VB +3.7%
Vooruit -4.7%
PVDA +1.4%
Groen -1.1%
Genk anders +0.7%
Open VLD -2.6%
Undecided: +26.2%

Aalst



VB +5.2%
N-VA -18.3%
Vooruit +4.6%
Groen -2.9%
CD&V -6.8%
Open VLD -5.4%
Stadslijst -2.9%
PVDA +1.2%
Others +0.4%
Undecided: +26.0%

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These is mostly from all Flemish cities, i'm not aware of a poll for Wallonia being released (if so, i'll also publish those)

I know some might not be interested in local politics. Neither am i, but it is a good way for getting trends early on and extrapolating them, seeing if they make sense with national trends.

While the huge number of undecideds would likely go for centrist parties and not the far-right or far-left, i believe (also due to more choice and them being more calculated, while radicals know who they would vote for long in advance). And secondly, it wasn't that for PVDA many people were already voting for it before.

But aside of that

In every city poll, PVDA makes gains. In larger urban areas even more, sometimes doubling.
In every city poll, VB makes gains, esp. in the more middle-sized cities and given we don't have polls about rural communes, one can only imagine what is going to happen there. It's pretty likely they'll get an absolute majority in some of these (they got 40% in Ninove in 2018)

I think aside of that, every other party consistently loses, except for 3 exceptions related to Vooruit, in the home city of Conner Rousseau (Sint-Niklaas), Aalst and the socialist stronghold Ostend where the incumbent liberal mayor is unpopular.

This also confirms that Vooruit is likely to make gains, however these polls were taken before the "racist controversy" surrounding Conner Rousseau, it's not certain yet how that will affect polls, but this explains why Vooruit is unwilling to get rid of him, since he's clearly and definitely causing the party to make gains again after a long-trend decline.

For N-VA and Green, these are modest losses, but in Ghent it's a good poll for Green, however the mayoral candidate for Green is extremely unpopular, so they're probably better off going for someone else there. N-VA seems to mostly lose in middle-sized cities and potentially also rural areas, however given their ceiling was used to high, they can afford to lose a lot and remain relevant.

CD&V and Open VLD are getting wiped out. CD&V is more of a rural party, so these polls being bad for them in urban areas isn't too dramatic if they can keep their strength in local and rural areas, and they've definitely started to double down on rural strategy. However given that cities such as Roeselare contain a lot of subcommunes that also are in rural areas where they also seem to lose a ton, they're bound to have a rough election cycle likely. But like N-VA, their ceiling used to be high so they can still afford to lose quite a lot and remain relevant in most locations. But for urban areas, this is likely their end.

Open VLD is just embarrassing. It isn't the party of local strength, but this is just another level. There is a reason why most VLD parties are opting to choose for a different name that doesn't reference VLD. It's because the national VLD brand is toxic and these embarrassing polls only make that case even stronger. This is basically a wipe out across the board. They currently have 37 out of 308 mayors, that's bound to decrease sharply, and only confirms the national polls in that they will lose bigly.

So we're looking at

2 winners: PVDA and VB (far left and far right)
1 probable/likely winner: Vooruit (social democracy)
2 lean/likely losers but potentially not dramatic and only limited losses: Groen & N-VA (green and conservative)
1 very likely loser: CD&V (christian democracy)
1 inevitable major loser: Open VLD (liberalism)

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Liège (compared to 2018) (actual: PS-MR)

PS 24 (-6)
MR 19 (+1)
PTB 18 (+2)
Vert ardent (ecolo): 16 (+2)
Engagés: 10 (+3)
Vega 3 (-1)
PP 3 (doesn't exist anymore)
Defi 2 (-2)

> Samedi 14/10 : Liège
> Lundi 16/10 : Charleroi
> Mardi 17/10 : Namur
> Mercredi 18/10La Louvière
> Jeudi 19/10 : Mons

On these days we will see polls

Not really much change in Liège also

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For national polling, seats by provinces

PTB seems to win the province of Liège according to the last polls (which is their stronghold in Wallonia).

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La Louviere



Mons



Namur

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Would there be any interest if i stream coverage of Belgian elections. I might also do Dutch elections? But if i only have like 1-2 viewers its maybe pointless but given I understand dutch language, i might be able to cover it in english in a stream. I just don't have much experience streaming (and am a bit uncomfortable with RL cam though i guess. But for a Belgian election, i think it might be interesting. Dutch as well since usually counting starts in the evening. And for Belgium, it's in the weekend with counting usually starting at 4PM on sunday starting which would be 10AM standard american time (though with climax much later usually). The earliest results are 10-11am for detroit time, but it would be mostly a sunday afternoon. There are 2 belgian ones next year (basically all possible belgian elections on 2 different dates both in 2024), the most important ones are scheduled to be held on 9 june.

just dk if people would really 'care' about something so minor from a US point of view
but given the amount of ppl that followed the Polish election, belgian elections tend to be interesting to follow since there aren't really exit polls (i can't recall any ever), so it's uncertain for a while which direction it goes to for quite some time.
and counting is slow but also not the slowness of the polish ones, it's fast enough for a stream to make sense, but slow enough that a stream also would make sense (not immediately all the "tension" gone).

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Thierry Baudet has announced that Forum for Democracy will take part in the European Parliament election not only in the Netherlands, but also in Belgium. With a 5% threshold in Belgium they won't win a seat, but they could cost VB their fourth one. FVD claim they differentiate themselves from VB by focusing on abolishment (not reform) of the EU, on COVID restrictions (not sure which ones...), on Central Bank Digital Currency, on opposing NATO and "American imperialism", and on building a network within society. They compare VB to the Dutch PVV. And they announced they will organize rallies in Antwerp, Brussels, Leuven and Luik.

I wonder whether Dries Van Langenhove could be FVD's leading candidate in Flanders.

https://twitter.com/PALNWS/status/1717879639731765507?s=20

The fact that he calls us southern Netherlands tells you enough you need to know.

I'd rather join USA, UK, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Denmark, Italy, Spain, Austria, Portugal, Switzerland, Ireland or Iceland before i consider joining Netherlands.

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Honestly if this country ever desintegrates for good. If I were a flemish I would rather remain independent than joining the netherlands.

They are too different and alone Flanders have more potential to become some huge booming regions.

Agreed, but Belgium works and i want to remain within Belgium.

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Honestly if this country ever desintegrates for good. If I were a flemish I would rather remain independent than joining the netherlands.

They are too different and alone Flanders have more potential to become some huge booming regions.

You know, in terms of national identity, i think i mostly consider myself "Burgundian". That's basically the era that defined and shaped Flanders and also held Wallonia at the same time. I think the Belgian identity is basically much closer to Burgundian than to French or Dutch.

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Two people died because of the storm, both in Ghent and they were absolutely evitable.

A German couple on vacation was in a park (the park was still open), but also... why enter a park if there's a major storm ongoing. The dad died, the daughter broke their leg.

In a child daycare, a Ukrainian refugee of 5 years old died because they were playing outside and a tree fell on the children. The 5 year old died while her sister and many other children saw everything. This is absolutely not understandable. One of the children came home say their parents and he only can say three things: blood, police, child.

You have to be INCREDIBLY INCOMPETENT and an absolute moron to let people play outside in that weather...

Our national weather service also changed colour code to orange way too late for that province, only 8AM. We know the storm was incoming far before that, and they've slept on it. Overall they did a good job. But communicate earlier! We knew this was happening before the morning, it's way too late to only change a warning in the morning when the storm was ongoing. The city services also communicated the change in colour code way too late.

Pure incompetence from many people across the board. Some Ukrainian parents lost their child while fleeing from the war.

Tragic.

All responses you hear: "was this it?". I found the storm to be pretty severe, i don't know why people are like this, but minimizing a storm of this extent should not be done. It's what led to this kind of neglect.

Someone on a british forum called netweather said: "how did the human race survived up to now without warnings". I responded this. A bit of an ignorant and stupid comment from his part...



Justice services are starting a case for child neglect now and manslaughter, while the city council starts an internal audit on what went wrong.

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Well 2024 will have the worst result for every iteration of Open VLD/Belgian liberals since the origin of the country. And it might not even be close. They might outrun 1946. Ironically, 1946 was also the year the Belgian communists did the best in and we're polling the best since than, actually even outrunning 1946 at this point.



They got 23 seats out of 212 at the time, while today, they're predicted to be around 20 out of 150. So communists might do better than their all-time best which is 1946, and liberals worse than their all-time worst which is also 1946.

To be fair though, i'm talking about Flemish liberals, Walloon liberals will do a bit better, so as a whole, it would be around 1946 due to MR. But that's because there's basically no competition on the right for MR in Wallonia.

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https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2023/11/16/flemish-socialist-leader-instructed-to-follow-therapy-following/



And this is why i vote communist and not socialist

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https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2023/11/13/far-right-argues-for-limits-to-newcomers-access-to-social-securi/





Far rights platform in Flanders

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Groen sees coalition partner Vooruit moving further and further to the right. Naji: "It's not just these statements. The fact that Vooruit wants to take child support from parents who don't speak enough Dutch. That they want to determine which woman can or cannot have children. Rousseau also attacks stay-at-home mothers because they want to care for their children. There is a line and that is very difficult."

Does Groen still want to collaborate with Vooruit? "I can hardly find any common ground with Conner Rousseau anymore. We have lost an ally. An ally on the left that we need to fight against racism and discrimination. I hope that there are still enough allies within Vooruit to fight against the far-right."

Response from the Flemish greens

Rousseau is not only criticized from the left. Even Vlaams Belang rebukes the socialist. "I am in favor of freedom of speech, but advocating violence based on skin color is more than a bridge too far," says Vlaams Belang chairman Tom Van Grieken. In his own words, he would sanction a member of parliament who makes such statements.

Van Grieken does not believe that Rousseau should undergo therapy for his statements. "I would rather die than have to go to therapy for an opinion. That is as if we are in communist Russia. In therapy for an incorrect opinion, that does not belong in a democracy."

When even the far right leader owns you on a issue like this.

And people within Labor just say it's a mistake from the chairman and that everyone can say this... They just all defend him.

It's so disgusting. It's so disgusting. You just gave the far right a win.

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A new low for the PTB after failing to condemn the Hamas terrorist attack : Hedebouw, not content with that cynical attempt to attract Default PS voters in the neo-ghettos of Brussels, has now come out and said girls as young as 8 should be allowed to wear the hijab at school. The PTB in Brussels are chomping at the bit at the idea of Israel-Palestine becoming a key electoral issue, alongside a bizarre obsession with criticising GoodMove and a proposed congestion tax (maybe because many of their activists aren't even from Brussels). They are already helping MR reclaim the capital in the process.

I haven't seen them vocal on the issue at all tbh.

But their position on the conflict is basically exactly mine.

Besides, it's not just PVDA-PTB, there are more people on the good side here

https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/1722319686329573884

I have more of an issue who fail to acknowledge Israels atrocities (indiscriminate killings against clearly civilians).

This is not an issue where they'll lose voters on (the ones who take issue at this, were never gonna vote for them in the first place). And this basically ensures that Arab Belgians (and all muslim Belgians) vote for you.

Aside of that, it's also morally the best position. And failure to condemn Hamas attacks, this is probably framed (1) and at this point irrelevant (2).

Hamas would've never even been relevant if Palestine had their own state that was recognised by the European Union and the USA. Advocate for peace, diplomacy, push for it, (demand and sanction Israel + Hamas if they don't negotiate) and there won't even be a reason for Hamas to fight or for Gazans to vote Hamas.

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https://twitter.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1725578557278077288

https://twitter.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1725819130505269753

I think she could be a stayer.

Very talented, esp. strong in communication. Very logical choice, as being partially with Rousseau the brain behind the renewed socialist movement, but she's much less of a "media attention whore" reputation that Rousseau had. She was more the person who debated and had media appearances explaining policy and so on. Still young, also a woman, family from impoverished labourers background (with no political background) and from a more rural area. She's also using that background to her advantage, like saying that unlike others she knows what people care about and what the issues of the day are.

When this will quiet down in the media, i don't think this will end up losing votes. In fact, some have even hypothesized that the whole controversy might have won votes back from people who would simply have agreed with those disgusting remarks.

She always defended Conner Rousseau even more, calls him a friend, says he has done something wrong and has apologized for it, but also criticizes the media witch hunt against her party. Not saying it in many words often, very to the point.

She values her privacy and protects her private life, which is a very big contrast with Connor Rousseau who wanted to use "his party image" and image of being active on social media. He also had a political background with her mother being very active and influential within the party. That's not the case with the current chairwoman, who also gets unanimously support and will be the candidate moving on for the elections (because she both embodies the recipe for success for the party, as well as the process of renewal).

She said that Conner Rousseau (if it was up to her) can remain as a candidate for his constituency.

She also has said before that the cordon sanitaire was a dumb idea. But re-iterated that her party would never cooperate with Vlaams Belang (far right).

If you ask me, definitely an upgrade.

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I don't really think Chez Nous will have a (major) breaktrough. After all, Wallonia has often tried it and failed over & over again in establishing a far right anti-immigration party. To me, the above posts seem rather wishful thinking.

It's possible that over time (and even likely) they'll have success but that takes time. N-VA and Flemish Interest though (the flemish counterparts) aren't popular due to separatism and IIRC N-VA even might split vote some of the right-wing vote by introducing lists theirselves, as they've announced.

Thierry Baudet also indictaed he would introduce a list for the European election, which is also clearly going nowhere given he talked about "greater Netherlands". Definitely very appealing for Brussels and Wallonia. And even the Flemish as he shows no understanding of the differences between Flanders and Netherlands, and they clearly are major and do exist.

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Jackson Hinkle and thousands of twitter accounts have spread we have joined. That's fake news. It's not true.

However, we seem to be more inclined on joining South Africa than not, but "liberals" are kingmaker in the vote.

Pressure is increasing within the federal government to join South Africa's genocide case against Israel. The greens, socialists and CD&V want our country to take “the risk of genocide” seriously, but the liberals are holding back.

The Greens, Socialists and CD&V want Belgium to join the genocide case that South Africa is bringing against Israel at the International Court of Justice in The Hague. South Africa accuses Israel of committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza.

“Belgium cannot continue to monitor what is happening in Gaza. That is increasingly looking like genocide," says Petra De Sutter, Green Deputy Prime Minister in the federal government, in a video on Instagram. “That is why I want our country, like South Africa, to go to the International Court of Justice for an investigation.” A few hours later, Ecolo Deputy Prime Minister Georges Gilkinet sent a similar message to the world.

Minister of Development Cooperation Caroline Gennez (Vooruit) is also increasing the pressure. “Support for the South African genocide case should be on the Belgian and European agenda,” she writes on X. Not only most progressive parties in the government, but also CD&V think so. “This conflict is extremely charged. It is therefore very important to judge based on facts,” says MP Els Van Hoof (CD&V). “As an independent body, the International Court of Justice is best placed to investigate the risk of genocide.”

They all refer to the international Genocide Convention. It states that every country has an obligation to take action if there is a risk of genocide. That risk is currently real, according to the various Vivaldi parties. “Food, medicine and other supplies to Gaza are being blocked,” says Groen.

Vooruit points out that there have already been more than 23,000 victims on the Palestinian side. “Mainly women and children,” the party says. “A sanitary catastrophe is unfolding and there is a threat of famine. Gaza has simply become uninhabitable. Two million people are in mortal danger and need to be saved.”

Although five of the seven parties urge action, things will not progress that quickly. The liberals are holding off. Prime Minister Alexander De Croo (Open VLD) did not even put the proposal on the core agenda on Wednesday afternoon. He points out that Hadja Lahbib (MR), the responsible Minister of Foreign Affairs, is on a trade mission in Shanghai. “The discussion is for next week,” it sounds. Because De Croo is also on a mission to China in the coming days.

The fact that there is no consensus within the government on the matter also plays a role, of course. MR in particular, the government's most pro-Israeli party, is putting the brakes on. In liberal circles it is also pointed out that no other European country is currently considering joining South Africa's genocide case at the International Court of Justice. “It would not be smart for Belgium to step on the accelerator, especially now that our country is the European chairman,” he said. “The EU's position in the war between Israel and Gaza is already a delicate exercise.”

Moreover, the ruling of the International Court of Justice may take some time. Groen therefore calls for provisional measures, such as a humanitarian ceasefire. Vooruit supports that question. In addition, the Socialists want to use the Belgian presidency to take the initiative in this matter at European level. “The violent Israeli settlers must stop their attacks on Palestinians and have a visa ban.

These will be important points of the Belgian presidency,” Caroline Gennez said in an interview with Knack. There, the Minister of Development Cooperation also strongly criticized Germany's attitude in the conflict. “The crucial question for our German friends is: are you really going to be on the wrong side of history twice,” she said. A statement that has caused quite a stir. But what the démarche of the progressive parties in the government and CD&V above all shows is that the government remains divided regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

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How much every party spends on social media ads (facebook)

In dutch-speaking Belgium, the far right spends the most followed by the conservative party (N-VA) and the marxists (PVDA).

In french-speaking Belgium, the far left (PTB) spends the most, followed by center/center-left Les engagés and MR (conservative-liberal).

Vooruit introduced legislation attempting to ban political ads on social media, while the Greens call for a cap on spending.