Canadian by-elections, 2019

[Jeppe]

The reason why the PPC seems to be doing well in Burnaby-South is because their party's candidate is a well-known anti-transgender rights activist in the community, which seems to be appealing to a large section of the Chinese-Canadian population in this plurality Chinese-Canadian riding.

Thompson got like 30% of the municipal election's vote last year so she's running on her own brand in this by-election, not Bernier's. The fundamental reality is that Bernier's overall strategy doesn't align with what seems to be working in this riding, which is appealing to immigrants via going hard-right on LGBT issues.

It's not a coincidence that the PPC is non-existent in the other 2 by-elections happening on Monday, in significantly whiter ridings. Bernier's current message has little appeal to white voters because the Conservatives are already doing a fine job appealing to the less "racially-woke" aspects of the electorate. At the end of the day, the conservative white voters that Bernier is so desperately pining for care more about the oil & gas sector than immigrants.

All that's really up for grabs from the Conservatives are the religious and social conservatives who feel that the CPC is leaving them behind on issues of gay marriage, transgender and abortion rights, but that group is probably more diverse than the country at large because of the influence of both culture and church in many East Asian immigrant communities in Canada. However, if Bernier spends his entire time rallying against immigrants, it's hard to see them embracing him like they did to Ford in Ontario last year.

[Jeppe]

NDP is avoiding a disaster scenario in Outremont. Given that a leadership bump that existed for Mulcair is gone, second place at 26% isn’t as horrific as it could’ve been.