MN-08: Joe Radinovich vs. Pete Stauber

[Jeppe]

17% Joe Radinovich
16% Michelle Lee
9% Jason Metsa
6% Kirsten Kennedy

https://www.scribd.com/document/381044538/MN08-Primary-Poll-Memo-Joe-for-Minnesota

I don’t really know why people were cheering when Phifer dropped out, it made it a lot easier for Lee to win because now she’s the only anti-mining progressive remaining in the race, and she’s a well-known, popular figure in Duluth.

[Jeppe]

I mean Lee isn’t guaranteed to get ahead of Radinovich though.

She probably is currently. Internal polls usually way overestimate a candidate’s support (Stacey Evans released a poll showing her down by 8 points a week before the primary, she lost by 50). It won’t be that extreme, but Radinovich is really hurt by splitting the pro-mining, moderate vote with both Metsa and Kennedy. Radinovich would beat Lee easily one-on-one, but the large amount of candidates running is hurting Radinovich and benefiting Lee.

Phifer winning the endorsement would probably have been better for Radinovich in the long-run. Metsa and Kennedy would’ve dropped out because they pledged to do so if an endorsement was made, while Lee still would’ve ran regardless, leaving Radinovich as the only pro-mining candidate against 2 progressive anti-mining candidates. But I guess politicians suck at politics.

[Jeppe]

This poll is obviously trash, but I have a hunch that actual office holders with fundraising and GOTV networks and connections to the local machine are going to have an easier time than some local news anchor.

Why would somebody do better than in their own internal poll?

[Jeppe]

So is Michelle Lee electable? Given how women candidates have performed I wouldn't count her out in the primary.

She's probably the weakest general election candidate. Her fundraising is non-existent and she's very progressive. However, she's a long-time news anchor in Duluth and she's the only one running against the PolyMet Mine, a contentious issue in the area. There are lots of environmentalists in this district, it was the only district where Rebecca Otto beat Walz in the previous statewide poll.

[Jeppe]

Leah Phifer exiting the race was a big blow to Radinovich. All it did was unite the environmentalist vote behind Lee, who already enjoyed intrinsic advantages as a well-known journalist in Duluth. Radinovich goes into the Tuesday primary as a favorite, but with Kennedy & Metsa drawing away pro-mining votes away from him, Lee could easily end up winning. After all, nobody in this race is really raising serious dough.

[Jeppe]

Jason Metsa underperformed badly, he barely finished ahead of Kirsten Kennedy, the woman who raised less than $10,000 and had no name recognition. That's the end of a political career right there.

[Jeppe]

Radinovich should win, he's a way better candidate than Nolan, and I bet every Democrat running for statewide office carries this district.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAA!! Ellison is not carrying MN 8th lmao.

I mean, its definitely possible. AGs usually do as good or better than the statewide ticket. It isnt hard to imagine that Ellison would carry the 8th thanks to the senators and Tim. And we dont even know if A. Ellison will still be in the ticket at that point. or B. This issue will be talked about in two months

You mean Lori Swanson does better than the statewide ticket. She’s been the only AG candidate for the past 3 elections, so equating her performance and generalizing it as all AG performance won’t work. There’s nothing special about the office that makes Democrats favoured to win it.

[Jeppe]

Radinovich should win, he's a way better candidate than Nolan, and I bet every Democrat running for statewide office carries this district.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAA!! Ellison is not carrying MN 8th lmao.

I mean, its definitely possible. AGs usually do as good or better than the statewide ticket. It isnt hard to imagine that Ellison would carry the 8th thanks to the senators and Tim. And we dont even know if A. Ellison will still be in the ticket at that point. or B. This issue will be talked about in two months

You mean Lori Swanson does better than the statewide ticket. She’s been the only AG candidate for the past 3 elections, so equating her performance and generalizing it as all AG performance won’t work. There’s nothing special about the office that makes Democrats favoured to win it.

No, Im talking in general. In almost every state, the AG does as well or better than their party ticket. We saw it in VA, and in 2016.

Northam actually ran ahead of Mark Herring, the AG incumbent running for re-election.

[Jeppe]

Radinovich should win, he's a way better candidate than Nolan, and I bet every Democrat running for statewide office carries this district.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAA!! Ellison is not carrying MN 8th lmao.

I mean, its definitely possible. AGs usually do as good or better than the statewide ticket. It isnt hard to imagine that Ellison would carry the 8th thanks to the senators and Tim. And we dont even know if A. Ellison will still be in the ticket at that point. or B. This issue will be talked about in two months

You mean Lori Swanson does better than the statewide ticket. She’s been the only AG candidate for the past 3 elections, so equating her performance and generalizing it as all AG performance won’t work. There’s nothing special about the office that makes Democrats favoured to win it.

No, Im talking in general. In almost every state, the AG does as well or better than their party ticket. We saw it in VA, and in 2016.

Northam actually ran ahead of Mark Herring, the AG incumbent running for re-election.

yeah, he did just as well as the top ticket, no major difference. In that same race where Northam won by 9, the LT won by 5, and the AG won by 7, so in between the two top ticket members. AGs usually preform similarly or ahead of the top. there are few times in US history where the top won by a good margin and the AG suffered a loss.

2 points is often the difference between victory and defeat, so I think Northam measurably performed ahead of Herring, especially considering that Herring was the incumbent and Northam was not. Lesser row offices can easily fall behind the top of the ticket, just look at Minnesota in 2014. Secretary of State Steve Simon barely won despite Dayton winning somewhat comfortably.