2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Jeppe]

Matching up communities of interest actually works in favour of Republicans, because those black, Hispanic communities have to be in the same seat, basically packing Democratic voters into D+30, when they could be used to create multiple D+7 seats in the same area.

[Jeppe]

CA-39: Change Research; Kim 22, Huff 19

In CA-39, Republicans got 51% of the vote, Democrats got 43%.

In CA-49, Democrats got 53% of the vote, Republicans got 47%.

[Jeppe]

Wait is PPIC the gold standard California polling firm or is it another... I think I may be getting confused here.

It’s Survey USA

[Jeppe]

Mike Levin raised $315,000 in Q1 in CA-49. It’ll probably be the second-highest among Democrats after Sara Jacobs’s haul.

[Jeppe]

Whitmer leading 43-39 and Stabenow leading 48-40 in MI-08, and R+4 seat.

[Jeppe]

SurveyUSA poll for CA-49
Rocky Chavez (R) - 16%

Doug Applegate (D) - 12%

Mike Levin (D) - 9%

Diane Harkey (R) - 8%

Paul Kerr (D) - 8%

Sara Jacobs (D) - 7%

Kristin Gaspar (R) - 5%

Brian Maryott (R) - 5%

Race tightening among Dems. Paul Kerr and Sara Jacobs saw the most movement towards them since February, while Applegate had a steep decline of 6 points, while Mike Levin has been straggling at the same support level.

[Jeppe]

SurveyUSA poll for CA-49
Rocky Chavez (R) - 16%

Doug Applegate (D) - 12%

Mike Levin (D) - 9%

Diane Harkey (R) - 8%

Paul Kerr (D) - 8%

Sara Jacobs (D) - 7%

Kristin Gaspar (R) - 5%

Brian Maryott (R) - 5%

Race tightening among Dems. Paul Kerr and Sara Jacobs saw the most movement towards them since February, while Applegate had a steep decline of 6 points, while Mike Levin has been straggling at the same support level.

Could you link this?

https://t.co/mIiIYyABY5

[Jeppe]

King Lear prefers male, conservative candidate who don’t pander to minority, women or LGBT issues.

[Jeppe]

King Lear prefers male, conservative candidate who don’t pander to minority, women or LGBT issues.

Sara Jacobs is literally trying to buy the seat tho. She's self-funded two-thirds of her own campaign so far. And I certainly wouldn't describe Applegate as a conservative.

A lot of SoCal candidates are self-funding, including Paul Kerr, Gil Cisneros, Harley Rouda, and Andy Thorburn, but Jacobs is getting the most flack. Double standard much?

[Jeppe]

King Lear prefers male, conservative candidate who don’t pander to minority, women or LGBT issues.

Sara Jacobs is literally trying to buy the seat tho. She's self-funded two-thirds of her own campaign so far. And I certainly wouldn't describe Applegate as a conservative.

A lot of SoCal candidates are self-funding, including Paul Kerr, Gil Cisneros, Harley Rouda, and Andy Thorburn, but Jacobs is getting the most flack. Double standard much?

My issue w/ Jacobs is that her resume seems thin (or inflated) compared just against a number of talented women running this year, and Levin and Applehate (and Kerr) all seem better.

That’s a fair criticism, but bashing Jacobs for self-funding while supporting candidates like Cisneros seems hypocritical.

[Jeppe]

If we had a candidate in TX-22 on the same caliber as Lizzie Fletcher, we might’ve had a shot at winning the seat. Oh well, maybe in 2020.

[Jeppe]

I think Greedo was from Clark, which is near Portland

I could’ve sworn he said via discord he was from the suburbs in Seattle. Maybe I’m misremembering or he just likes to tell different stories.

He’s definitely near Vancouver (in Washington state). He always complained about his congresswoman, Jaime Herrera Beutler, not being conservative enough for him.