538 2020 commentary megathread

[Jeppe]

Well, I don’t remember Trump leading the polls before his campaign announcement, because people just didn’t think it was an actual option at the time. Once Oprah declares, she’ll immediately jump to the front a la Trump.

[Jeppe]

Coincidentally, the very first poll that included Trump also had him pegged at 3%. The link is now dead, but RCP has it listed here.

I think Oprah will take up so much oxygen from the room, especially in terms of media attention, it would be hard for an opponent to compete. Nobody will tune in to hear an empty suit like Booker or O'Malley talk about sexual harassment, but they'll tune in for Oprah and to hear what she has to stay.