Sask Party leadership election: Jan 27, 2018

[Jeppe]

Tina Beaudry-Mellor is the first entrant of the race, http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/tina-beaudry-mellor-leadership-bid-1.4247897

She's the current Social Services Minister and is a first term MLA.  She's my MLA and I really doubt she'd hold onto her seat, even if she was leader. The NDP's polling lead is huge in Regina, and Eric Grenier will likely have her down at least 20-30 points below the NDP candidate come the next provincial election, not exactly the kind of position you would want from a leader.

[Jeppe]

Tina Beaudry-Mellor is the first entrant of the race, http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/tina-beaudry-mellor-leadership-bid-1.4247897

She's the current Social Services Minister and is a first term MLA.  She's my MLA and I really doubt she'd hold onto her seat, even if she was leader. The NDP's polling lead is huge in Regina, and Eric Grenier will likely have her down at least 20-30 points below the NDP candidate come the next provincial election, not exactly the kind of position you would want from a leader.

If Grenier thinks she will lose by 20-30 then we will know for sure she will not lose by 20-30.

I like to think that we can do a better job of analysis then him.

Either way, she won by 5% back before Regina swung 35% against the Sask Party, she's toast, leader or not.

[Jeppe]

It also assumes the polls stay where they are at, nonetheless even if the Saskatchewan Party does recover I would be quite shocked if they got up to 60% support provincewide as when you've been in power 13 years you will develop some baggage and some will want you gone.  I can see the Saskatchewan Party maybe doing as well as they did in 2007, that is doable, but getting what they got in 2011 and 2016 considering both were records seems highly unlikely.  She could move to another riding but they would be more a tacit admission the party expects to lose seats.

She actually lives in a different provincial seat called, Regina Wascana Plains, the only Regina seat the Sask Party could forceivably win in 2020, due to it containing the fiscally conservative and wealthy neighbourhoods of Regina, along with a large exurban/rural population. Helps a bit that her current constituency is right next to that one, so it's not as glaring as Clark's jump from downtown Vancouver to Kelowna.

[Jeppe]

The 3 frontrunners are Cheveldayoff, Koch, and Scott Moe in that order. If Chevy doesn't have a large lead on the first ballot, we could see Koch or Moe overtake him, as there's a bit of a "Anybody but Chevy" movement going on.