2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Jeppe]

https://www.texastribune.org/2017/08/02/hurd-gets-first-democratic-challenger-2018/

Seems like an excellent recruit, a lot better than running Gallego again.

[Jeppe]

The Japanese-Hawaiian community's political power has been dwindling lately, but they might have one more shot to install another one of their own in this district. The question is, who will carry their torch?

Kaniela Ing has a weakness in that he lives on an entirely different island as the 1st congressional district. It probably wouldn't have been an issue if he represented and lived in the 2nd congressional portion of Oahu island, where Honolulu is, but again, he lives in an entirely different island (Maui). It's like somebody from Westchester county running to represent a Manhattan district.

At some point, people are going to ask why the hell a state legislator from Maui is running for office in Honolulu.

[Jeppe]

According to Wikipedia, there are no Republicans mentioned as even thinking about running for WA-Sen against Maria Cantwell. Has anybody here heard of a rumor of a Republican who might run?

I'm not sure, but I wouldn't be surprised if a few Democratic senators ran unopposed in 2018.

[Jeppe]

Can any of the Democrats running defeat Will Hurd?

Apparently this person is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination:  http://jayhulings.com/

but there are a couple other credible candidates also running.  I'd call all three of them second tier candidates though.
https://www.judycanales.org/
https://ginaortizjones.com/

Isn’t the district very Hispanic? I’m not sure a white guy would be the front runner for the Dem nomination in a district that’s far beyond majority Hispanic.

[Jeppe]

Can any of the Democrats running defeat Will Hurd?

Apparently this person is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination:  http://jayhulings.com/

but there are a couple other credible candidates also running.  I'd call all three of them second tier candidates though.
https://www.judycanales.org/
https://ginaortizjones.com/

Isn’t the district very Hispanic? I’m not sure a white guy would be the front runner for the Dem nomination in a district that’s far beyond majority Hispanic.

Gene Green would disagree with you. For quarter of century.

Exceptions exist, and incumbents generally stay, but winning an open primary is a different ballgame. For every white congressman from Memphis, there’s 5 more black representatives from inner city Atlanta, Detroit, Black Belt, etc.

[Jeppe]

Can any of the Democrats running defeat Will Hurd?

Apparently this person is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination:  http://jayhulings.com/

but there are a couple other credible candidates also running.  I'd call all three of them second tier candidates though.
https://www.judycanales.org/
https://ginaortizjones.com/

Isn’t the district very Hispanic? I’m not sure a white guy would be the front runner for the Dem nomination in a district that’s far beyond majority Hispanic.

Gene Green would disagree with you. For quarter of century.

Exceptions exist, and incumbents generally stay, but winning an open primary is a different ballgame. For every white congressman from Memphis, there’s 5 more black representatives from inner city Atlanta, Detroit, Black Belt, etc.

Nevertheless - exceptions EXIST. Why this can't be one of them??

They’re called exceptions because they don’t happen often. The district is 70% Hispanic and 15% white, the shots of a white candidate winning the Democratic nomination in a seat like this are fairly low, unless they’re an incumbent. Just like how one wouldn’t expect a black guy to win the Republican primary in Montana or what not, it could happen, just unlikely with modern voting habits.

[Jeppe]

Kansas Dem Andrea Ramsey, accused of sexual harassment, will drop out of US House race

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's too bad, if only male candidates/elected officials were more willing to step aside like her. Looking at you, Kihuen..

[Jeppe]

It’s surprising that I still haven’t put the Russian troll on my ignore list. Done!

[Jeppe]

What are the chances that every Republican-held seat has a Democratic challenger?

[Jeppe]

Anyone else kinda annoyed by Russian moderates who love "mavericks" trying to preach to everyone else about American politics

Yes, I have on my ignore list. He says some pretty awful stuff and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he’s being paid to troll online on sites like this.

[Jeppe]

I would actually have thought that some older D senators would’ve retired this year, such as Carper, Cardin, Hirono,  and Feinstein, since it would be guaranteed that their seats would be won by Democrats in such a D-leaning year. Then the next election cycle, which we don’t know how it will Lean, they would be held by incumbents and be less vulnerable than an open seat situation.

I’m not surprised though, since politicians are entirely self-interested creatures. They wouldn’t do something for the party if it requires them to sacrifice something.

Hirono is only 70, she has another few terms left in her, especially being from Hawaii.

[Jeppe]

I would actually have thought that some older D senators would’ve retired this year, such as Carper, Cardin, Hirono,  and Feinstein, since it would be guaranteed that their seats would be won by Democrats in such a D-leaning year. Then the next election cycle, which we don’t know how it will Lean, they would be held by incumbents and be less vulnerable than an open seat situation.

I’m not surprised though, since politicians are entirely self-interested creatures. They wouldn’t do something for the party if it requires them to sacrifice something.

Hirono is only 70, she has another few terms left in her, especially being from Hawaii.

Doesn't she have end stage cancer?

She has late-stage kidney cancer, but she's had treatment and the prognosis is good. McCain is the Senator with a terminal cancer.

[Jeppe]

It’s so obvious the Democratic generic ballot lead is collapsing, at this rate Republicans could have a 1-2 point generic ballot lead by November. The biggest problem for Democrats is that when the Dow Jones is hitting records every day (it’s going to be 30,000 by the midterms), and the GDP is growing at 3% every quarter people don’t feel compelled to throw the Incumbent party out of Congress.

Oh really? Tell that to Senator-elect Jarchow.

Seriously Lear, we are sick of this. Enough with your bullsh**t.

The Ignore button is your friend.

If only some people stopped quoting him and forcing us to read his inanities.

[Jeppe]

The author of that article really doesn’t like women, that’s for sure. Most of the candidates he’s griping about are women, even though a pretty large majority of establishment candidates are male. For every Angie Craig, there are 4 more Harley Rouda’s running for Congress, men who are actual CEO’s and millionaires.

[Jeppe]

As long as Matt Heinz isn’t the nominee again, either Kirkie or Markell’s sounds fine.

[Jeppe]

I’ll post some sporadic fundraising data as I parse them through the FEC website.

Hawaii’s 1st Democratic Primary (rounded figures)
Donna Mercado Kim - $173,000
Kaniela Ing - $83,000
Doug Chin - $28,000

Kentucky's 6th Democratic Primary
Jim Gray - $344,213
Amy McGrath - $320,967

California’s 49th Democratic Primary
Sara Jacobs - $1,390,645

Arizona’s 2nd Democratic Primary
Ann Kirkpatrick - $399,311
Matt Heinz - $81,610
Mary Matiella - $50,181

Illinois Democratic Primary
Dan Lipinski - $228,318
Marie Newman - $160,835

[Jeppe]

Maybe Lipinski’s not taking it seriously?

[Jeppe]

Dianne Feinstein gave her CA SEN campaign $5m last quarter. She’s got $10m on hand. Kevin de Leon has $359k in the bank

[Jeppe]

My incomplete fundraising encyclopedia. The figures are from the net contributions, and do not include loans made to the campaign by the candidate or other organizations. Only candidates that raised a noteworthy amount of money were included (usually around $100,000, but I made some exceptions here and there).

2017 Quarter 4 Fundraising

ARIZONA

Arizona's 2nd (Martha McSally - R)
Ann Kirkpatrick (D) - $399,311
Lea Marquez Peterson (R) - $207,465

Arizona's 8th (Trent Franks - R)
Phillip Lovas (R) - $118,885
Hiral Tipernini (D) - $67,086

Arizona's 9th (Kyrsten Sinema - D)
Greg Stanton (D) - $600,630
Steve Ferrara (R) - $141,064

CALIFORNIA

California's 25th (Steve Knight - R)
Katie Hill (D) - $252,342
Steve Knight (R) - $237,544
Bryan Caforio (D) - $205,069
Jess Phoenix (D) - $157,321

California's 39th (Ed Royce -  R)
Mai Khanh Tran (D) - $175,029
Gilbert Cisneros (D) - $133,255
Sam Jammal (D) - $121,275

California's 45th (Mimi Walters - R)
Brian Forde (D) - $401,798
Katie Porter (D) - $261,075
Mimi Walters (R) - $229,061
David Min (D) - $212,092

California's 48th (Dana Rohrabacher - R)
Dana Rohrabacher (R) - $231,485
Hans Keirstead (D) - $226,033
Harley Rouda (D) - $125,241
Michael Kotick (D) - $105,254

California's 49th (Darrell Issa - R)
Sara Jacobs (D) - $1,390,645
Paul Kerr (D) - $508,054
Mike Levin (D) - $304,558
Doug Applegate (D) - $136,076

COLORADO

Colorado's 2nd (Jared Polis - D)
Joseph Neguse (D) - $161,728

Colorado's 3rd (Scott Tipton - R)
Scott Tipton (R) - $138,060
Diane Mitsch Bush (D) - $75,725

Colorado's 6th (Mike Coffman - R)
Jason Crow (D) - $274,482
Mike Coffman (R) - $242,530

FLORIDA

Florida's 18th (Brian Mast - R)
Brian Mast (R) - $416,181
Lauren Baer (D) - $332,109

Florida's 26th (Carlos Curbelo - R)
Carlos Curbelo (R) - $360,420
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) - $238,316

Florida's 27th (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen - R)
Matthew Haggman (D) - $396,643
David Richardson (D) - $255,150
Jose Javier Rodriguez (D) - $229,456
Mary Barzee Flores (D) - $221,820
Ken Russell (D) - $209,647

GEORGIA

Georgia's 7th (Rob Woodall - R)
Rob Wodall (R) - $151,435
Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) - $127,375
David Kim (D) - $110,067

HAWAII

Hawaii's 1st (Colleen Hanabusa - D)
Donna Mercado Kim (D) - $172,510
Kaniela Ing (D) - $82,757

IOWA

Iowa's 1st (Rod Blum - R)
Abby Finkenauer (D) - $302,605
Rod Blum (R) - $146,894
Thomas Heckroth (D) - $112,681

Iowa's 3rd (David Young - R)
David Young (R) - $204,610
Theresa Greenfield (D) - $128,261
Cindy Axne (D) - $107,826
Eddie Mauro (D) - $93,815

Iowa's 4th (Steve King - R)
James Scholten (D) - $169,620
Steve King (R) - $87,543

ILLINOIS

Illinois's 3rd (Dan Lipinski - D)
Dan Lipinski (D) - $228,318
Marie Newman (D) - $160,835

Illinois's 4th (Luis Gutierrez - D)
Jesus Garcia (D) - $169,620
Sol Flores (D) - $79,282

Illinois's 12th (Mike Bost - R)
Brendan Kelly (D) - $312,362
Mike Bost (R) - $248,132

Illinois's 13th (Rodney Davis - R)
Rodney Davis (R) - $264,430
Betsy Londrigan Dirksen (D) - $160,448
Erik Jones (D) - $131,994
Jonathan Ebel (D) - $109,862

INDIANA

Indiana's 3rd (Jim Banks - R)
Courtney Tritch (D) - $100,193
Jim Banks (R) - $85,527

Indiana's 4th (Todd Rokita - R)
Diego Morales (R) - $201,093
Steven Braun (R) - $158,310

Indiana's 6th (Luke Messer - R)
Greg Pence (R) - $564,907

Indiana's 9th (Trey Hollingsworth - R)
Liz Watson (D) - $150,701
Trey Hollingsworth (R) - $133,243
Daniel Canon (D) - $100,511

KANSAS

Kansas's 2nd (Lynn Jenkins - R)
Paul Davis - $331,131

Kansas's 3rd (Kevin Yoder - R)
Kevin Yoder (R) - $471,962
Tom Niermann (D) - $138,118
Brent Welder (D) - $91,051

KENTUCKY

Kentucky's 6th (Andy Barr - R)
Andy Barr (R) - $411,745
Jim Gray (D) - $344,213
Amy McGrath (D) - $320,967

MASSACHUSETTS

Massachusetts's 3rd (Niki Tsongas - D)
Dan Koh (D) - $804,739
Rufus Gifford (D) - $501,977
Rick Green (R) - $339,116
Lori Trahan (D) - $309,669
Barbara L'Italien (D) - $269,753
Juana Matias (D) - $212,466
Steve Kerrigan (D) - $159,240
Abjihit Das (D) - $150,847

Massachusetts's 9th (Bill Keating - D)
Peter Tedeschi (R) - $223,352
Bill Keating (D) - $168,341

MARYLAND

Maryland's 1st (Andy Harris - R)
Jesse Colvin (D) - $219,062
Andy Harris (R) - $152,112

Maryland's 6th (John Delaney - D)
David Trone (D) - $1,679,700
Aruna Miller (D) - $300,278
Amie Hoeber (R) - $117,545
Nadia Hashimi (D) - $112,426

MAINE

Maine's 2nd (Bruce Poliquin - R)
Bruce Poliquin (R) - $479,219
Jared Golden (D) - $241,244
Lucas St. Clair (D) - $206,111

MICHIGAN

Michigan's 1st (John Bergman - R)
Matthew Morgan (D) - $174,317
John Bergman (R) - $127,688

Michigan's 6th (Fred Upton - R)
George Franklin (D) - $226,816
Fred Upton (R) - $216,414
Matt Longjohn (D) - $117,433

Michigan's 7th (Tim Walberg - R)
Gretchen Driskell (D) - $306,622
Tim Walberg (R) - $287,031

Michigan's 8th (Mike Bishop - R)
Elissa Slotkin (D) - $436,659
Mike Bishop (R) - $306,195

Michigan's 9th (Sander Levin - D)
Andy Levin (D) - $124,569

Michigan's 11th (David Trott - R)
Suneel Gupta (D) - $500,935
Tim Greimel (D) - $328,763
Fayrouz Saad (D) - $126,000
Haley Stevens (D) - $125,514
Dan Haberman (D) - $100,472
Klint Kesto (R) - $98,636

MINNESOTA

Minnesota's 1st (Tim Walz - D)
Carla Nelson (D) - $166,930
Dan Feehan (D) - $151,784
James Hagedorn (R) - $100,084

Minnesota's 2nd (Jason Lewis - R)
Angela Craig (D) - $549,432
Jason Lewis (D) - $221,856

Minnesota's 3rd (Erik Paulsen - R)
Erik Paulsen (R) - $497,310
Dean Phillips (D) - $410,531
Adam Jennings (D) - $135,517

Minnesota's 8th (Rick Nolan - D)
Rick Nolan (D) - $210,511
Pete Stauber (R) - $117,648

MISSOURI

Missouri's 2nd (Ann Wagner - R)
Cort VanOstran (D) - $117,088
Ann Wagner (R) - $103,713


PENNSYLVANIA

Pennsylvania's 1st (Bob Brady - D)
Nina Ahmad (D) - $151,073

Pennsylvania's 6th (Ryan Costello - R)
Chrissy Houlahan (D) - $411,628
Ryan Costello (R) - $322,448

Pennsylvania's 7th (Pat Meehan - R)
Daylin Leach (D) - $129,387
Daniel Muroff (D) - $99,742

Pennsylvania's 8th (Brian Fitzpatrick - R)
Brian Fitzpatrick (R) - $215,862
Rachel Reddick (D) - $146,522

[Jeppe]

My incomplete fundraising encyclopedia. The figures are from the net contributions, and do not include loans made to the campaign by the candidate or other organizations. Only candidates that raised a noteworthy amount of money were included (usually around $100,000, but I made some exceptions here and there).

2017 Quarter 4 Fundraising

ARIZONA

Arizona's 2nd (Martha McSally - R)
Ann Kirkpatrick (D) - $399,311
Lea Marquez Peterson (R) - $207,465

Arizona's 8th (Trent Franks - R)
Phillip Lovas (R) - $118,885
Hiral Tipernini (D) - $67,086

Arizona's 9th (Kyrsten Sinema - D)
Greg Stanton (D) - $600,630
Steve Ferrara (R) - $141,064

CALIFORNIA

California's 25th (Steve Knight - R)
Katie Hill (D) - $252,342
Steve Knight (R) - $237,544
Bryan Caforio (D) - $205,069
Jess Phoenix (D) - $157,321

California's 39th (Ed Royce -  R)
Mai Khanh Tran (D) - $175,029
Gilbert Cisneros (D) - $133,255
Sam Jammal (D) - $121,275

California's 45th (Mimi Walters - R)
Brian Forde (D) - $401,798
Katie Porter (D) - $261,075
Mimi Walters (R) - $229,061
David Min (D) - $212,092

...

Did you compile this from Opensecrets.org?

FEC website.

[Jeppe]

NJ-07: Big news in the Dem primary as Lisa Mandelblatt dropped out and endorsed newly presumed frontrunner Tom Malinowski in a show of party unity and hoping to avoid a potentially bruising primary.

http://politicsdw.com/2018/02/mandelblatt-drops-out-backs-malinowski/

That's disappointing.

[Jeppe]

Politico Playbook reporting that Pelosi raised nearly $50 million for the DCCC last quarter. 

My queen is alive.

[Jeppe]

I hope not. He’s a blatant carpetbagger describing himself as a “patriotic millionaire”.

[Jeppe]

I hope not. He’s a blatant carpetbagger describing himself as a “patriotic millionaire”.

Imagine saying this without even the slightest hint of irony while stanning for Sara Jacobs of all people.

He’s an associate professor in Austin and in Charlottesville, how he’s running for office in Pennsylvania, I have no idea where he even actually lives and works.

[Jeppe]

The Democrats should coalesce around Sara Jacobs in CA-49. We don't need any more 60-something year old businessmen in congress anymore.