2018 Senate Rankings

[Jeppe]

Safe Democratic: Washington, Oregon, California, Hawaii, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia (13)

Likely Democratic: Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine, New Jersey (4)
Baldwin and Stabenow seem likely to run for re-election without facing a serious Republican a candidate. Menendez's legal troubles might make the New Jersey more competitive than it should be.

Lean Democratic: Montana, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, West Virginia (4)
Democratic Trump state incumbents with strong approvals (besides Casey), but not enough polling data to give them the clear, are here.

Toss-up: Nevada, Arizona, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, and Florida (6)
Incumbents that seem to be struggling in early polls got bunched up in this category. Arizona seems likeliest to move into the Lean D category from this group.

Lean Republican: Texas (1)
Trump's approval numbers are horrible in Texas, and Cruz doesn't strike me as somebody who can win over Clinton voters. Beto O'Rourke is a strong recruit too.

Likely Republican: Utah, and Tennessee (2)
If Orrin Hatch somehow wins the primary, then this race could actually. break for the Democratic candidate. Tennessee could become competitive with Corker's retirement, with Marsha Blackburn pulling a Moore redux.

Safe Republican: Wyoming, Nebraska, Mississippi, Alabama (4)

[Jeppe]

Safe D (14): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MI, NM, VA, MN-Regular
Likely D (4): NJ, ME, WI, MN-Special
Lean D (7): MT, PA, FL, NV, AZ, OH, ND, WV
Toss-Up (2): IN, MO
Lean R (0):
Likely R (2): TX, TN
Safe R (4): MS, NE, TX, WY, UT

[Jeppe]

TN Volunteer,
Regarding Donnelly, I think he's a better fit than Mccaskill for his state. I mean, he's pro life for example. Even if Mccaskill excites more the base than Donnelly, this is a midterm under a republican president heavily despised by the democrats. Trump will excite the base.
That's why I believe that Donnelly is more likely to win than Mccaskill.

McCaskill is a known entity in her state. She's been elected statewide 5 times now, last time very comfortably, while Donnelly was an accidental Senator who barely won. McCaskill overperformed the polls, while Donnelly scraped by on election day.

[Jeppe]

Tfw Hawaii so safe that people don’t even bother to include it on the “Safe D“ list

[Jeppe]

Safe Republican
Mississippi
Utah
Wyoming

Likely Republican
Nebraska

Lean Republican
Tennessee
Texas

Toss-up
Indiana
Missouri

Lean Democratic
Arizona
Florida
Nevada
North Dakota
Montana
Ohio
West Virginia

Likely Democratic
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin